Post on 17-Aug-2020
Economic Plan
2025Southeast Alaska
SOUTHEAST CONFERENCE
Economic Development Committee
Southeast Alaska Economic Plan 2020
CEDS
TRANSPORTATION
ENERGY
MARITIME
SEAFOOD
MINING TOURISM
TIMBER
CEDS Steering
Committee
HEALTH CARE
Southeast Conference Committees
TRANSPORTATION
ENERGY
MARITIME
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
MINING TOURISM
TIMBER
CEDS Steering
Committee
HEALTH CARE
Southeast Conference Committee
Chairs
Timeline: Where are we in process?
SWOT & Committee
Economic Analysis
Goals & Objectives
Action Plan Review
Draft Plan
You Are Here
Priority Objectives
Resiliency
May 2020
March 2021
Visitor Industry Market Southeast Alaska to Attract More Visitors. Improve Access to Public Lands. Increase Flexibility in Terms of Permit Use. Increase Yacht and Small Cruise Ship Visitations. Improve Communications Infrastructure. Advocate for Adequate Funding to Maintain Existing Recreational
Infrastructure.
Timber Industry Provide an Adequate, Economic and Dependable Supply of Timber
from the Tongass National Forest to Regional Timber Operators. Stabilize the Regional Timber Industry. Work With USFS to Direct Federal Contracts Toward Locally-Owned
Businesses. Support Small Scale Manufacturing of Wood Products in Southeast
Alaska. Continue Old Growth Harvests Until Young Growth Supply is
Adequate. Community-Based Workforce Development. Update Young Growth Inventory.
Other Objectives Housing: Support Housing Development. Food Security: Increase Production, Accessibility, and Demand of
Local Foods. Communications: Improved Access to Telemedicine in Southeast
Alaska. Marketing: Market Southeast Alaska as a Region. Solid Waste: Regional Solid Waste Disposal. Arts: Increase Recognition of Southeast Alaska’s Thriving Arts
Economy. Mining: Minerals & Mining Workforce Development. Attract Research Jobs. Research: Attract Science and Research Jobs to Southeast Alaska. Cultural Wellness: Support Development of Activities and
Infrastructure That Promote Cultural Wellness.
Transportation Minimize Impacts of Budget Cuts to AMHS and Develop Sustainable
Operational Model. Road Development. Move Freight to and from Markets More Efficiently. Ensure the Stability of Regional Transportation Services Outside of
AMHS.
Energy Work with Federal and State Government to Promote Regional
Energy Projects. Diesel Displacement. Support Community Efforts to Create Sustainable Power
Systems That Provide Affordable/Renewable Energy. Complete Regional Hydrosite Evaluation for Southeast Alaska.
Maritime Maritime Industrial Support
Maritime Industrial Support Sector Talent Pipeline: Maritime Workforce Development Plan.
Increase Access to Capital for the Regional Maritime Industrial Support Sector.
Harbor Improvements. Examine Arctic Exploration Opportunities That the Region
as a Whole Can Provide.
Seafood Industry Mariculture Development. Full Utilization and Ocean Product Development. Increase Energy Efficiency and Reduce Energy Costs. Regional Seafood Processing. Seafood Markets. Sea Otter Utilization and Sustainable Shellfish. Maintain Stable Regulatory Regime.
Promote strong economies, healthy communities, and a quality environment in Southeast Alaska.
Southeast Alaska 2020 Plan: 46 initiatives
Other Objectives • Housing • Food Security • Communications • Solid Waste • Arts • Research • Cultural Wellness
Economic Development Committee: “other”
Alaska Mariculture
Initiative
AMHS Reform Project
Market Southeast Alaska to Visitors
Maritime Workforce
Development
Full Seafood Resource Utilization
Secure Adequate
Timber Supply
Diesel Displacement
7Priority
Objectives
TRANSPORTATION
ENERGY
MARITIME
SEAFOOD
TOURISM
TIMBER SEAFOOD
Priority Objectives
Key Project Champion Who will be the project champion moving this project forward?
Outline of steps required for project to be completed. List steps and dates
People/Organizations responsible for completing these steps Who will be working on this?
Cost Estimates How much will this cost, and who will pay these costs?
Evaluation Measures What are the indicators we can track that will measure project success?
Committee MeetingsSoutheast Alaska Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy
Meeting Schedule
Month Transportation Energy Timber Seafood Health Care
Tourism Mining Econ Devel.
Feb 2020 (or earlier)
April/May 2020
June/July/Aug 2020
September 2020
Oct/Nov/Dec 2020
February 2021
Sector SWOT Analyses
April/May 2020
The Southeast Alaska sector SWOT analyses were conducted by the Southeast Conference Committees in two sessions: On February 4th, 2020 at Mid Session Summit, and again in April or May. Once the SWOT
lists were completed by the group, committee members were asked to prioritize by choosing the top two to three items that
they felt were most representative of regional timber strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities, and threats.
Natural Beauty
Unique Destination
Jobs
Growth potential
0.4 0.8
43%
45%
52%
76%
StrengthsCommunity relationships/
Infrastructure
Seasonality of industry
Seasonal housing
0.35 0.7
27%
38%
48%
67%
Cultural Tourism/
Community Collaboration and Planning
Independent/niche tourism development
Better Tourism Marketing
0 0.44
29%
31%
33%
43% COVID-19/Illness
Anti-tourism sentiment
State/Fed regulations (or lack of)
Increasing Costs0 0.45 0.9
30%
33%
35%
89%
Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats
communication
Collaborate with Alaska Native Entities
Southeast Alaska SWOT Tourism
Provides quality/high paying jobs
Supports regional economy
High environmental standards
Abundant mineral resources
0.5 1
35%
57%
64%
100%
StrengthsExtreme opposition
Negative public perception
Aging/insufficient infrastructure
Finite resource/mine life
0.35 0.7
25%
29%
50%
64%
Explore/develop new mineral
Public outreach/educate on value
Workforce Development/Increased jobs
Increase access into Tongass
Small to medium sized mine development0 0.8
29%
29%
43%
57%
71% Environmental groups/lawsuits
New regulations/permits/uncertainty
Lack of skilled workers
Federal management/bureaucracy0 0.45 0.9
29%
29%
57%
86%
Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats
by environmental groups
deposits & expand existing mines
Mining SWOT Analysis
Strong, reliable airline services
Barge services
Tourism support/integration
Communication/partnerships
Alaska Marine Highway
IFA ferry services0.25 0.5
24%
24%
25%
29%
38%
48%
StrengthsAMHS funding/service cuts
Lack of regional transportation plan
Small population/low economy of scale
AMHS not reliable
Not enough exports/lack of backhaul
AMHS politics0.35 0.7
21%
24%
29%
35%
57%
62%
Improve AMHS services/efficiency
Regional transportation plan
New ferry service model
New road development
Better connections to Canada
Tourism integration0 0.7
19%
23%
29%
31%
33%
67%Demise of AMHS
Loss of state funding
Loss of political support for Southeast
Misconception of AMHS value
Regional population/economic decline0 0.3 0.6
26%
29%
33%
38%
52%
Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats
Transportation SWOT Analysis
High quality product
Sustainable
Great reputation/
Hatcheries
0.3 0.6
28%
49%
59%
60%
StrengthsClimate/ocean change
Transportation expensive
Trade/tariff impacts
Workforce limitations
0.35 0.7
32%
33%
39%
68%
Increase value added
Mariculture
Seafood waste utilization
Marketing innovation
0 0.6
36%
38%
50%
56% Global/ocean warming/
Trade wars/barriers
COVID-19
Aging fleet/infrastructure0 0.45 0.9
29%
36%
64%
83%
Weaknesses
Opportunities Threatsacidification
Alaska brand/Origin story
& challenging
Seafood SWOT Analysis
Abundant Hydropower
Biomass Availability
Innovative
Resilient (not in grid)
0.5 1
20%
20%
24%
96%
StrengthsHigh costs of infrastructure
Small loads/demand
Lack of connectivity between grids
Aging infrastructure
0.4 0.8
24%
32%
42%
76%
Expand regional Intertie
New Hydro development
Install more heat pumps
Expand electric vehicle use/
0 0.48
28%
32%
44%
48%Economic downturn
Shrinking population/
Climate Change/Drought
Loss of PCE0 0.3 0.6
38%
40%
48%
52%
Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats
powering locations
energy loads
Energy SWOT Analysis
High quality timber/products
Sustainable/renewable resource
Supports rural SE economies
High paying good jobs
0.3 0.6
43%
43%
50%
57%
StrengthsEnvironmental groups/litigation
Cost of doing business
Federal regulations/bureaucracy
Workforce limitations
0.4 0.8
43%
57%
57%
79%
Increased private/state lands
Telling the positive story of timber
Develop niche markets
Federal land exchanges
0 0.6
36%
36%
43%
57% Environmental groups
2016 Forest Plan
Federal Bureaucracy
Roadless Rule0 0.35 0.7
29%
50%
50%
64%
Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats & Lawsuits
Timber SWOT Analysis
Strengths Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats
High % of Population has Health Care Access Diverse Rural Services Recreation is workforce draw Capacity Collaboration Technology Personalized Care
State Budget Cuts Transportation Costs Higher Costs Lack of Efficiency Lack of Specialty Care Substance Abuse Recruitment Increased Costs Technology integration Senior Care Capacity/Services Lack of Collaboration
University Course Development Strategic Investment Behavioral Health Curriculum Expansion Health Care Career Pathways Improved Technology Use Online Coursework Follow Best Practices for Remote Care Build Regional Alliances
Lack of understanding regarding the seriousness of the health care situation
State Medicaid budget reductions. There is a lack of regional vision Unwillingness to change High costs of health care Competition with outside employers. Shrinking population Access to health care/insurance
Health Care SWOT Analysis
The Southeast Alaska Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats
(SWOT) analysis was developed by more than 200 Southeast Conference members, including business, municipal, and tribal
leaders from across the region in February 2020.
Beauty and Recreation Opportunities
Tourism Sector
Seafood Industry
Rich Alaska Native Culture and Heritage
People and Southeast Alaskan Spirit
Great place to raise kids/families0.25 0.5
34%
36%
37%
38%
41%
50%
StrengthsFerry transportation decline
Cost of living and doing business
Transportation Costs
Housing: Not enough/Too Expensive
Aging or lack of infrastructure
Dependence on State oil economy0.3 0.6
22%
26%
32%
34%
42%
59%
Strengthen ferry connectivity
Mariculture development
Seafood products development
Cultural tourism development
Renewable energy
Improve infrastructure0 0.6
22%
23%
28%
31%
43%
50%Reduction/loss of Ferry Service
Fisheries decline
Poor leadership/decision making
Cost of living
Climate Change/Global Warming
Capitol move/capital creep0 0.3 0.6
28%
29%
33%
34%
34%
54%
Weaknesses
Opportunities Threats
Southeast Alaska SWOT Analysis
Beauty and Recreation Opportunities
Tourism Sector
Seafood Industry
Rich Alaska Native Culture and Heritage
People and Southeast Alaskan Spirit
Great place to raise kids/families
Wildlife
Clean Water
Access to Natural Resources
Mining0.25 0.5
20%
22%
28%
30%
34%
36%
37%
38%
41%
50%
Southeast Strengths
Ferry transportation decline
Cost of living and doing business
Transportation Costs
Housing: Not enough/Too Expensive
Aging or lack of infrastructure
Dependence on State oil economy
Energy Costs
Lack of road connectivity
Lack of jobs that can support household
Seasonal jobs instead of year-round
Lack of childcare0.3 0.6
15%
17%
18%
20%
20%
22%
26%
32%
34%
42%
59%
Southeast Weaknesses
Ferry connectivity strengthened
Mariculture development
Seafood products development
Cultural tourism development
Renewable energy
Improve infrastructure
Housing development
Maritime industry growth
Diversify the Economy
Grow food & harvest plants
Mining industry0 0.6
18%
20%
21%
21%
21%
22%
23%
28%
31%
43%
50%
Southeast Opportunities
Loss/Further Reduction of Ferry Service
Fisheries decline
Poor leadership/decision making
Cost of living
Climate Change/Global Warming
Capitol move/capital creep
State jobs/budget cuts
Declining/aging population/loss of youth
Radical outside groups/lawsuits
Housing related0 0.3 0.6
15%
18%
18%
23%
28%
29%
33%
34%
34%
54%
Southeast Threats
Timeline: Where are we in process?
SWOT & Committee
Economic Analysis
Goals & Objectives
Action Plan Review
Draft Plan
You Are Here
Priority Objectives
Resiliency
May 2020
March 2021
Southeast Alaska April Jobs 2020
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1
8%0%0%
-7%-8%
-9%-10%-10%
-11%-12%
-14%-22%
-26%-38% Leisure & Hospitality
Seafood Processing
Transportation
Construction
State Gov’t
Health Care
Financial
Tribal Gov’t
Local Gov’t
Retail Trade
Professional Services
Mining and Logging
Information
Federal Gov’t
-1,300
-700
-200
-200
-600
-300
-100
-100
-600
-
-300
-300
+100 +
Between April of 2019 and April of 2020 Southeast Alaska lost (at least temporarily) 13% of all jobs, a reduction representing 4,600 lost workers due to the COVID-19 crisis. The hardest hit were the leisure & hospitality and transportation sectors. These saw a combined decline of 2,000 jobs. Federal jobs increased by 100 (mostly part-time, temporary Census workers). The mining, logging, and information sectors experienced no changes in workforce levels during April.
CO
VID-19 Im
pacts 2020Change in SE Jobs: April 2019 to April 2020 = -4,600
Source: Alaska Department of Labor Monthly Employment Statistics
+11.1% +7.4% +7.6% +19.7% +18.7% +4.5% +10.5% +6.7% +7.1% +2.7% +8.7% +6.2% +3.0%
Southeast Alaska April Unemployment 2020
United StatesAlaska
Southeast AlaskaSkagway
HainesHoonah-Angoon CA
KetchikanPetersburg
WrangellPrince of Wales-
SitkaJuneauYakutat
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
9%10.8%
12.8%13.6%
14.7%15.5%
17.3%18%
27.3%31.4%
13.8%13.7%14.4%
CO
VID-19 Im
pacts 2020
Change in SE Unemployment: April 2019 to April 2020 = +7.6%
Source: Alaska Department of Labor April 2020 Preliminary Unemployment Rates
Unemployment Rate April 2020 Increase since April 2019
Hyder Census Area
Between April of 2019 and April of 2020 the Southeast Alaska unemployment rate jumped 7.6% from 6.2% to 13.8%. Skagway and Haines saw the greatest increases, while the POW Census Area and Yakutat experienced the smallest.
Economic PlanSoutheast Alaska
SOUTHEAST CONFERENCE
Questions?Meilani Schijvens Rain Coast Data
Southeast Alaska Annual Business Confidence
and Investment Survey
Developing 2020 Survey
Business Confidence: CurrentlyHow do you view the regional business climate right
now?
Very Poor6%
Poor38%
Don't know1%
Very Good5%
Good50%
Very Poor5%
Poor34%
Don't know2%
Very Good5%
Good54%
2019 +4%2018
Business Confidence: OutlookWhat is the economic outlook for your
business or industry over the next year?
Much Worse2%
Worse14%
Same (poor)18%
Same (positive)37%
Much Better2%
Better27%
2018
Much Worse1%
Worse13%
Same (poor)18%
Same (positive)38%
Much Better5%
Better25%
2019 +1%
Jobs Outlook
Reduce Jobs11%
Unknown12%
Add Jobs27%
Maintain Jobs51%
Over the next year, do you expect your
organization to add jobs,
maintain, reduce jobs, unsure
Annual Business InvestmentLess than $5,000
$5,000 to $10,000$10,001 to $25,000$25,001 to $50,000
$50,001 to $100,000$100,001 to $500,000
$500,001 to $1,000,000$1,000,001 to $5,000,000$5,000,001 - $10,000,000
$10,000,001 - $20,000,000$20,000,001 - $30,000,000
$30,000,000+0% 1400% 2800% 4200%
2124
1510
3325
3317
2841
$221 Million
Which questions should we add for 2020?
1. How many people does your business currently employ?
2. How many people does your business employ during the summer peak?
3. Have you experienced any disruption in business due to COVID-19?
4. Please estimate the percent revenue decline to your business due to COVID-19 in the last 30 days (compared to same period in 2019)?
5. How much do you project your revenues will change in the first half of 2020 compared to 2019?
6. How many employees have you laid off (or put into unpaid status) so far due to COVID-19?
7. Do you expect to make employment cuts in the future due to COVID-19?
8. Has your supply chain been disrupted?
9. Have you experienced disruptions from vendors and service providers?
10. Is your business at risk of closing permanently because of impact caused by COVID-19?
11. If you are at risk of closing, how many weeks of the current situation do you think you will be able to survive?
SEC COVID-19 Impacts Survey (March)
• Business name• # of employees• # of part time versus full time• Check all the benefits your business offers; medical,
dental, vision, retirement, paid leave, mat leave etc. • Select your primary revenue source; tourism, local,
transportation, goods and supplies etc. • Does your business have reserves or emergency
funds• Projected revenue in FY20• Projected lost revenue FY20• Check all the impacts that apply; layoffs,
cancellations, lost revenue, reduction in employee benefits, etc.
• Immediate needs; resume tourism ops, financial assistance, etc.
Submitted Questions