Post on 16-Jul-2015
Yun Liu
Head of Analytics
Global eBay Partner Network
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eBay Partner Network: eBay’s Affiliate Channel
• eBay’s largest paid internet marketing channel
• EPN gives shoppers access to 800M+ items daily
• EPN works with 300k partners in 13+ countries Buyers
CUSTOMERS
Sellers
PublisherseBay
EPN focus: Demand Generation
3
Competitive Pricing
• Revenue Share + Bonus for
New/ReActivated
• Standard Rate Card + Payout
Adjustment by Business
4
EPN works with different sites
• Business Model
– Contents
– Online Shopping comparison
– Loyalty/cashback
– Portal
– Etc
• Optimization
– Pricing Elasticity
– Tools and Landing page
– Network Quality
– Partner development
5
Elasticity high
ROI
Content OSC
Role of analytics: Data Driven Action
• Focus is Action
– Insights: statistics such as trends, correlations, incrementality
– Actions: pricing based on iROI and elasticity
– Balance isn’t just art if we leverage A/B testing
• No surprise –> surprise
– Surprise outcomes if based on incrementality
• But causality (incrementality) is impossible.
– Best one could do is estimation based on test.
6
DATA Insight Action
Elasticity high
iROI
Content
OSC
(illustration)
Attribution (correlation) => Incrementality (causality)
• Attribution: Direct Qualified Transaction Amount $1 => d$1
• How much of that $1 sales is incremental? => i$x
• Incremental portion UNKONWN.
– A/B Test could tell direction with significance.
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$1
One common practice: d$1 = i$1.5?
• Halo effects
• Untracked $ due to cookie deletion, etc
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$1 $0.5
d$1 = i$0.5?
• Substitution for Organic, SEO, SEM traffic
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0$0.5
Incrementality test and research at eBay
10
Paid Search (SEM) results:
Brand Keywords (ebay)
Non_Brand Keywords: fraction of $1
New/Reactivated: Positive impact on sales
EPN Incrementality tests
• Key hypotheses
– BUY MORE
– More User
• A/B test by individual sites
– Typical test runs from 20 to 30 days
– Control (ads on) group normally expose ads to 100k users
– 50k clicks generated
• Different BM with different results
11
Breakdown purchase funnel: Sales/User
more buyer + buy more
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𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
𝑈𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑠=
𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
𝐵𝑢𝑦𝑒𝑟𝑠∗𝐵𝑢𝑦𝑒𝑟𝑠
𝑈𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑠
Different stories from Difference traffic (demographics)
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Benefits: Split the d$1 based on test results=> pricing
• % of d$1 is estimated based on test results
• iROI is better than ROI to enable better pricing
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Elasticity high
iROIContent
OSC
(illustration)
ROI
Summary
• Analytics is driving EPN optimization
• Different business models have different incrementality
• A/B test could provide significant estimation for incrementality
• Balance of iROI and elasticity is simplified using the framework
DATA Insight Action
testing pricing