Post on 13-Jul-2015
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
FEWS Glasgow: development of a pilot surface water forecasting system (& operational use during Commonwealth Games)
Amy Tavendale October 2014
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Acknowledgements:
Pilot Surface Water Flood Forecasting Project & FEWS Glasgow colleagues:
• Linda Speight (SEPA) • Juzer Dhondia (Deltares) • Marcel Ververs/Marc van Dijk (Deltares) • Bob Moore/Steven Cole (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology) • Michael Cranston (SEPA) • Met Office & James Hutton Institute colleagues
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Flood Forecasting in Scotland
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
FEWS Scotland: a national system
• National coverage • One system used by national forecasting
hydrologists and local flood warning duty officers
• River stage, rainfall, temperature, reservoir levels observations
• Surge, wind, wave, temperature and precipitation forecasts
• Catchment & national forecasts (ensemble)
• ‘Permissions’ used at login restrict access and synchronisation
• Runs on virtual server environment • Migrated to a dual MC system in April 2013 • Continuing expansion…
2014
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
• SEPA Flood Warning Strategy 2012-2016
• Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009
• New flood warning schemes:
Loch Linnhe, Stonehaven,
Firths of Forth & Tay, Moray Firth
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Developing surface water forecasting capabilities
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Pilot surface water forecasting tool
• Tool to enhance SEPA’s surface water flood forecasting • Aimed at responders rather than general public • Collaboration with partners
– re existing models and mapping – re useful alerting mechanisms
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Recent summer flooding in Glasgow
July 2002, June 2007, August 2011, July 2012, July 2013
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Glasgow 2014
© Crown copyright
• Operational use of tool during Commonwealth Games (July 2014)
• Strategic Flood Risk Assessment for Games identified flooding as a risk
• Well established network of responders
• High profile event to demonstrate science
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Modelling approach & technical implementation
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Methodology
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
FEWS Glasgow:
• Delft-FEWS environment
• Single Master Controller instance • Independent* to FEWS Scotland (*very nearly) • Servers run on virtual server environment in Perth • No client-server interaction • Hosts the G2G Glasgow model
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
FEWS Scotland and FEWS Glasgow:
• Independent systems and independent data feeds however
• National G2G Scotland states transferred once a day from FEWS Scotland to FEWS Glasgow
• Updated with best available hydrometric data
• State export/import schedule co-ordinated
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
G2G Glasgow:
• Uses G2G Scotland states transferred from FEWS Scotland • Runs on 22x22km MOGREPS domain • Cut-out of supporting datasets for quicker operation • Uses rain gauge observations from WISKI, but no flow/level
information • Runs ‘Glasgow’ cut-out ensembles (2km grid)
• MOGREPS-UK • STEPS Nowcast
• Provides G2G Surface Runoff estimates on 10x10km grid
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Linking rainfall to impacts
Effective runoff
Forecast rainfall
Surface runoff
Associated impacts – 1) People and Property & 2) Transport
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
FEWS Glasgow:
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
FEWS Glasgow Output:
• Web reports export current forecasts
• Data accumulated on 6 hourly basis
• All web reports are archived & available for project review
• Last 16 web reports are accessible internally (8 forecasts a day)
• Removes any potential for client- server synchronisation issues
• Forecasters best assessment of overall risk in Glasgow
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Glasgow Surface Water Flood Forecast
Supplementary Guidance
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Commonwealth Games
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Launch weekend 19th – 20th July
HRA Probability of greater than 20mm in 3 hours
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
18/07/2014 16:30 GMT
18/07/2014 21:30 GMT
19/07/2014 03:30 GMT
Transport People & Property
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
19/07/2014 09:32 GMT
19/07/2014 15:27 GMT
Transport People & Property
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Final weekend 2nd – 3rd August Probability of > 20mm in 3 hours
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
(Some initial) FEWS lessons learned from FEWS Glasgow operation:
• Occasional issue with failures of ensemble run when using multiple cores (fix is forthcoming)
• Benefit of post-processing (i.e. accumulation to 6 hour timesteps) to deal with uncertainty associated with forecast
• Users accepted web reports as source of information • Import of rainfall forecast data triggered the automatic
running of the relevant model forecast workflow • Benefit of independent systems achieved – will help
inform future projects
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Next steps:
• Summarising main findings of project • Scalability for future cities/Scotland • Potential staffing requirements • Exploring system design (e.g. No of FSS’s) • Applying good features/lessons learned from FEWS
Glasgow into FEWS Scotland
• Onto the next projects (reservoir/snowmelt & more coastal/fluvial/pluvial)!
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Finally:
• Very positive feedback from responders • Successful operational application of science developments • Good collaborations and partnership working • Publications forthcoming (British Hydrological Society, SFFS
blog & journal articles) • Demonstration of FEWS Glasgow & FEWS Scotland output
during User Days on request
Delft-FEWS User Days 2014
Amy Tavendale Senior Hydrologist, Flood Forecasting & Warning Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) amy. tavendale @ sepa. org. uk +441738 627989