DrillingdownintonetworksfromtheAPNICdata

GeorgeMichaelsonggm@apnic.net

APNICusesadvertstomeasure

Theoverlayboxisrunninganadvert-It’sacCvecode.Wemakegraphslikethisfromthedata

APNICmeasurementsystem

•  Runningsince2010•  AcollecConofspecificwebsites,andadverCsingchannelbasedcollecCons

•  End-Usermeasurementdirectlyinthebrowser•  “whatcanpeoplereallydo”•  Currently12-15millionsamplesperday–  8musableoutcomes

•  AdjustedbyITUuserstaCsCcstoaccountforplacementbiases

APNICusedflashtomeasure

•  Flashhadmanyissues–  ItsnotinstalledbydefaultonmanyOS,Browsers– Usersdisableit

•  Increasinglyitsbeingabused– Longlistofexploits– Spamandotherbadbehaviours–  IntrusiveadverCsing‘capturing’thescreen

Endofflash:newsat11

•  A\ermanyyears,googlehasrespondedtocommunitycomplaintandclosedoff‘defaultrun’for3rdpartyflashcontentonwebpages– AsofSeptember1,flashdoesnotrunbydefaultunlessidenCfiedascriCcalforthewebpage

– Thirdpartyflash(adverts)inparCcularaffected

Endofflash:newsat11

•  Asaresult,ourrandomharvestofendusercapabilityfromflashhasended.

•  Wehadaplan…

StartofHTML5

•  TheadverCsingecologyhasmovedfromflashtoHTML5(javascript)withCghtercontrolsonwhatcanbedoneinsidetheadvert

•  WedevelopedjavascriptformeasurementsomeCmeago,andhadcodereadytorun–  (ifyouwanttoaddjavascriptbasedmeasurementstoyourwebsite,wecantalk)

StartofHTML5

•  WegotapprovalfromgoogletoconCnueourmeasurementsinsideanHTML5model

•  ThishasbeenrunninginparallelwithFlashbasedcollecConsinceJune

•  Wehavenowcutovertoexclusivelymeasuringend-userbehavioursusingHTML5– ThereissomedisconCnuityinthedatabutwebelievethefundamentalmeasurementisconsistent:Weseewhatenduserssee

Flashhaditslimits

•  Itturnsout,thevastmajorityofourflashmeasurementranonWindowspladorms– FlashonOSX,infirefoxrequiredhandinstallaCon– SomeAndroidsystemscamewithflashinstalled

•  Mostdidn’t

– FewiOSdeviceshadflash

Flashhaditslimits

•  BecauseWindowsdoesn’trunmuchoncellularnetworks(exceptthrough‘mifi’devicesandwindowsphoneswhichhaveverysmallmarketshare)

•  WehadligleinsightintoMobiledevicenetworks– Wesaw‘mifi’viewsof3&4G,andWiFi,butnotmuchofthetruecellularnetwork.

HTML5offersnewopportuniCes

•  Wenowseeamuchmore‘interesCng’mixofoperaCngsystemsandbrowsers– WeseeAndroidandiOSdevices

•  WenowhaveinsightsintothebehavioursofthesedevicesoncellularnetworksaswellasWiFi

Eyeballshare

•  APNIC’sadvertisplacedonrandomdevices– Googlehasaconsistentrecordofanear-linearrateofpresentaConontonewIPaddresses

– Thereisnoobviousbiastoanyspecificprovider•  Thereareclearbiasestoeconomieswhichacceptcheapadverts,whichweadjustforusingtheITUmodelofworldpopulaConandregisteredsubscribers

Eyeballshare

•  WhatweseeisthereforeafirstapproximaConreflecConofrelaCveshareofthoseeyeballs–  Itsnot‘marketshare’butitiseyeball,browserbasedshare.

–  Insomeeconomies(KR)itdoesn’tlookagoodfit•  Wealsoseeintocorporate,transitandothernetworks– Someofthesehavequitelarge‘footprints’ofusers(Facebook,Opera,Google)

Somesignificantrecentdeployments

•  Ifwelookintosomerecentbigdeploymentscanweseehowthedifferentend-userdevicesareaffectedbytheIPv6technology?

Somesignificantrecentdeployments

•  SkyUK•  Cableprovider,naConwide– Nocellular,butlotsofhomeWiFi– Upgrading80,000customerspernighttoIPv6

•  Top-3providerofbroadbandintheUKfromtheirowndata– Currentlythetoprankedend-userproviderintheUKfromoureyeballdata

– hgp://stats.labs.apnic.net/v6pop?c=GB&d=2

ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6

CapableIPv6Preferred

Eyeballshare

AS5607 BSKYB-BROADBAND-ASSkyUKLimited

16.76% 16.07% 20.35%

AS5089 NTLVirginMediaLimited 0.02% 0.01% 19.00%

AS2856 BT-UK-ASBTPublicInternetService 0.01% 0.01% 17.54%

AS13285 OPALTELECOM-ASTalkTalkCommunicaConsLimited

0.01% 0.01% 6.41%

AS12576 ORANGE-PCSEELimited 0.01% 0.01% 4.05%

AS9105 TISCALI-UKTiscaliUKLimited 0.00% 0.00% 2.59%

AS60339 H3GUKHutchison3GUKLimited 0.01% 0.00% 2.36%

AS6871 PLUSNETPlusNetplc. 0.15% 0.13% 2.14%

AS43234 TT-AOLUK-ASTalkTalkCommunicaConsLimited

0.01% 0.01% 1.73%

AS21321 ARETI-ASAreCInternetLtd. 48.51% 48.44% 1.65%

SkyBroadbandOverallIPv6

SkyBroadbandnon-mobileIPv6

SkyBroadbandMobiledeviceIPv6

SkyBroadbandiOS/AndroidIPv6

Cabledoesn’tdisadvantage

•  Nostrongbiastoanydevicetype(desktop,mobile)orOS(Windows,OSX,Android,iOS)– Allwificonnecteddevicesbehindv4onlybasestaConsshowlowereffecCveIPv6capability

•  Skyisadual-stackdeploymentinmixofPPP,IPoE,centrallymanagedcablemodemplan

•  TheUKislikelytogetto20%+IPv6capabilityby2016atthisrateofdeployment(ithasslowedbuttheyconCnuetoconvertcustomers)

•  WhatwillcompeCtorprovidersdo?

iOSand464xlat

•  ApplemadeadecisionNOTtoimplement464xlatmechanisms–  iOSdevicesonav6cellularnetworkdonotsupport464xlat.

•  ThereforewherethereissignificantiOSdeployment,464xlatexcludesiOS

•  Canweseethis?

T-Mobile

•  WeknowT-MobileUSAdeployed464xlat– PureIPv6withtranslaConforIPv4

•  It’spredominantlyaCellularproviderwithsomeWiFiservices

•  ItshouldhaveastrongsignalofIPv6capability– WithnosignificantiOSusage

T-Mobile

T-Mobile

T-Mobile

T-Mobile

iOSAndroid

464XLatworks

•  Themechanismclearlyworks– Androiddevicesshowremarkablyhigh,consistentlevelofIPv6capability

•  WithGoogle,Facebook,Cloudflare,AkamainowrouCnelysupporCngdual-stackcontentitislikelyasignificant%oftrafficflowsoverIPv6andreducespressureontheCGN/NATrequirementforIPv4

•  ThetechnologywillnotmakesenseforacompanywithlargeiOShandsetdeployment

Koreaismoving!

•  EarlyBroadbandadopConnaConwide•  SignificantinvestmentintechnologylockedtoIPv4– NoupgradeopContoCPEdevicesdeployednaConwide

– NaConaldatanetworkincludesswitchingtechnologyandotherinvestmentswhichblockIPv6

•  Butonecellularproviderhasdeployed464xlat..

SKTelecom

•  20mcustomers–  inmarketofapprox~49mmobiledevices–  (morethanonedeviceperuser)

•  KRhasmoremobilesthanbroadbandathome– ~20mpremises

•  Approx4mcustomersalreadyconvertedto464XLat– RunningmulCpleAPN,nonupgradeddevicesv4only

S-KTelecomoverallIPv6

S-KTelecomnon-mobileIPv6

S-KTelecommobileIPv6

S-KTelecomiOS/AndroidIPv6

iOS

Android

S-KTelecom

•  Clearsignalof464xlateffectoniOSdevices•  LoweroverallpenetraConrate•  TechnologydeploymentincellularavoidspidallsoflegacyIPv4-onlybroadbanddeployments

•  KRnaConalIPv6probablyexceeds2%fromthissingledeployment–  (oureyeballsharefiguresforKRdon’treflectlocalmarketcondiConswell)

Canweseethissignalanywhereelse?

•  HighAndroid,LowiOSv6capabilityisastrongsignalof464xlatdeployment

•  ContrastwithroughlyequalizedIPv6capabilityoftruedual-stackCellular,Cable&ADSLbaseddeployments– nobiasagainstiOSexists

IPv6Capability:US

0

5

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20

25

30

ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6

CapableIPv6Preferred

Eyeballshare

AS7922 COMCAST-7922-ComcastCableCommunicaCons,Inc.

55.49% 51.15% 15.91%

AS7018 ATT-INTERNET4-ATTServices,Inc. 72.54% 67.10% 8.78%

AS701 UUNET-MCICommunicaConsServices,Inc.dbaVerizonBusiness

0.10% 0.02% 5.23%

AS16509 AMAZON-02-Amazon.com,Inc. 0.01% 0.00% 3.84%

AS20115 CHARTER-NET-HKY-NC-CharterCommunicaCons

0.08% 0.02% 3.44%

AS22773 ASN-CXA-ALL-CCI-22773-RDC-CoxCommunicaConsInc.

0.65% 0.53% 3.38%

AS22394 CELLCO-CellcoPartnershipDBAVerizonWireless

89.29% 82.42% 3.09%

AS21928 T-MOBILE-AS21928-T-MobileUSA,Inc.

69.55% 68.71% 2.75%

AS209 CENTURYLINK-US-LEGACY-QWEST-QwestCommunicaConsCompany,LLC

0.12% 0.06% 2.60%

AS20057 ATT-MOBILITY-LLC-AS20057-ATTMobilityLLC

9.54% 9.40% 2.18%

USA•  AT&T–bothcellularandhomeservicedelivery–  IPv6deploymentbelievedtobetruedual-stack

•  VerizonCellular,someWiFibasedservices– Dual-stackIPv6deploymentoncellular/WiFi

•  Comcast–largenaConalcableprovider– Dual-stackdeploymentoncable– Manylegacyusers– Hasasignificant‘tripleplay’modelinIPv6

•  Sprint,mixofdifferentservicesincludingT-1backbone,Wireless,Cellular

AT&T

AT&T

Stronglygroupeddata.NobiasagainstiOSNotusing464xlattranslaContechnology

AS20057AT&TMobility

AS20057AT&TMobility

NosignificantiOSIPv6seenHowever,non-mobiledevicesseenIsthis464XlatorjustanAPNissue?

Android

iOS

Verizon

Verizon

Stronglygroupeddata.NobiasagainstiOSNotusing464xlattranslaContechnologyLowernon-mobiledevicecapability,probablysignalsuseofMiFiandolderOS

Comcast

Comcast

Stronglygroupeddata.NobiasagainstiOSNotusing464xlattranslaContechnologyLoweroverallIPv6capabilityduetolegacy

AS3651SprintBB6

AS3651SprintBB6

Weaklyseparateddata.SomebiasagainstiOSMaybeusing464xlattranslaContechnology?Fewnon-mobiledevicesseenOristhisavendorspecifichandset-sellbias?

Android

iOS

Anywhereelse?

•  CanweseesignalsinanyotherASN?

•  OrangePoland

OrangePoland

Android

iOS

Iwanttobelieve…

OrangePoland

Android

iOS

Somethinghappened!

OrangePoland

•  NoCngapregylong-livedanomolyinthemeasurement,theoverallimpressionisofaloweriOSIPv6capabilitybehindthisASN.– WhenIPv6capabilitysurgesittracksAndroiddevicesverystrongly

•  MaybeiPhone6salestookoffandthey’redoinganon-v6APN?

Anyotherbigdeployments?

IPv6Capability:EC

0

1

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6

7

8

ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6

CapableIPv6Preferred

Eyeballshare

AS14420 CORPORACIONNACIONALDETELECOMUNICACIONES-CNTEP

15.08% 14.24% 44.24%

AS27947 TelconetS.A 0.28% 0.27% 14.65%

AS14522 Satnet 0.00% 0.00% 14.07%

AS27738 EcuadortelecomS.A. 0.00% 0.00% 7.88%

AS27668 ETAPAEP 0.01% 0.01% 4.30%

AS22724 PUNTONETS.A. 0.00% 0.00% 3.66%

AS23487 CONECEL 0.01% 0.00% 3.26%

AS19114 OtecelS.A. 0.01% 0.01% 2.50%

AS28006 CORPORACIONNACIONALDETELECOMUNICACIONES-CNTEP

0.00% 0.00% 1.64%

AS52257 TelconetS.A 0.00% 0.00% 0.79%

AS14420CORPORACIONNACIONALDETELECOMUNICACIONES-CNTEP

AS14420CORPORACIONNACIONALDETELECOMUNICACIONES-CNTEP

Groupeddata.NobiasagainstiOSNotusing464xlattranslaContechnology

IPv6Capability:BR

012345678910

ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6

CapableIPv6Preferred

Eyeballshare

AS28573 CLAROS.A. 13.01% 12.15% 24.70%

AS18881 GlobalVillageTelecom 15.96% 14.50% 16.75%

AS7738 TelemarNorteLesteS.A. 1.14% 1.08% 11.15%

AS27699 TELEFNICABRASILS.A 2.82% 2.57% 8.46%

AS8167 BrasilTelecomSA-FilialDistritoFederal

0.83% 0.78% 6.58%

AS26599 TELEFNICABRASILS.A 2.49% 2.28% 2.39%

AS26615 TimCelularS.A. 0.05% 0.03% 1.46%

AS53006 ALGARTELECOMSA 0.04% 0.03% 1.33%

AS13591 BrasilTelecomComunicaoMulCmidia

0.00% 0.00% 1.00%

AS4230 CLAROS.A. 0.12% 0.02% 0.68%

AS28573Claro,Brasil

Stronglygroupeddata.NobiasagainstiOSNotusing464xlattranslaContechnology

IPv6Capability:PE

02468101214161820

ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6

CapableIPv6Preferred

Eyeballshare

AS6147 TelefonicadelPeruS.A.A. 20.02% 19.13% 80.42%

AS12252 AmericaMovilPeruS.A.C. 0.03% 0.02% 15.55%

AS262253 ECONOCABLEMEDIASAC 0.17% 0.13% 0.73%

AS27843 OPTICALTECHNOLOGIESS.A.C. 0.14% 0.13% 0.73%

AS52400 OlodelPeruS.A.C 0.00% 0.00% 0.70%

AS262210 VIETTELPERS.A.C. 0.05% 0.02% 0.57%

AS19180 AMERICATELPERUS.A. 0.16% 0.14% 0.42%

AS263224 EMPRESADETELECOMUNICACIONESMULTIMEDIAALFA

0.00% 0.00% 0.29%

AS21575 ENTELPERUS.A. 0.06% 0.01% 0.24%

AS28032 INTERNEXAPERUS.A 0.04% 0.02% 0.14%

AS6147TelefonicaDelPeru

Groupeddata.NobiasagainstiOSNotusing464xlattranslaContechnology

LowiOSpresence•  I*believe*thattherelaCvecostofiOSdevicesinLACregionishigh:–  ‘Apple-tax’:consistentworldwidepricing–  SomeeconomicfactorsindifferentnaConaleconomies(importtaxes,foreigncurrencycontrols)

–  SignsthatLACconsumerswithdirectaccesstoUSmarketsshopintheUSA,forsignificantpurchaseslikeaniPhone

•  Androiddevicesaremuchmoreprice-variant– HighandlowendunitsavailablefromarangeofprovidersincludingtradingrelaConshipsinBRICS

IfligleiOS..ThenXLATcanwork!

•  LowpenetraConofiOSmeansthat464Xlatisnotabarriertosignificantcustomervolume

•  IfitmakessenseeconomicallytofavouratransiConmechanismlike464Xlat,theevidenceisthatitworks,andwillreducepressureonyourIPv4addressbindingsonanyNAT/CGN

•  However,nosignsofsignificantdeploymentofXLATinLACregion

IPv6Capability:CA

012345678910

ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6

CapableIPv6Preferred

Eyeballshare

AS812 ROGERS-CABLE-RogersCableCommunicaConsInc.

0.66% 0.05% 16.20%

AS6327 SHAW-ShawCommunicaConsInc. 0.04% 0.01% 15.04%

AS852 ASN852-TELUSCommunicaConsInc. 18.45% 16.89% 14.63%

AS577 BACOM-BellCanada 0.01% 0.01% 14.57%

AS5769 VIDEOTRON-VideotronTelecomLtee

2.56% 2.34% 7.56%

AS7992 COGECOWAVE-CogecoCable 2.11% 1.86% 3.04%

AS855 CANET-ASN-4-BellAliantRegionalCommunicaCons,Inc.

0.04% 0.00% 2.87%

AS5645 TEKSAVVY-TekSavvySoluCons,Inc. 0.87% 0.77% 2.55%

AS803 SASKTEL-SaskatchewanTelecommunicaCons

0.01% 0.00% 1.46%

AS7122 MTS-ASN-MTSAllstreamInc. 0.03% 0.02% 1.44%

AS852-TELUSCommunicaConsInc.

Groupeddata.NobiasagainstiOSNotusing464xlattranslaContechnology

Otherworldwidedeployments

IPv6Capability:FI

012345678910

ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6

CapableIPv6Preferred

Eyeballshare

AS1759 TSF-IP-CORETeliaSoneraFinlandOyj 0.14% 0.09% 25.16%

AS16086 DNADNAOy 18.83% 17.80% 23.03%

AS790 EUNETFIElisaOyj 4.05% 3.96% 21.24%

AS719 ELISA-ASElisaOyj 0.62% 0.14% 16.72%

AS2586 UNINET-ASElisaEesCAS 4.14% 4.12% 5.16%

AS15527 ANVIAAnviaOyj 0.07% 0.01% 1.85%

AS1741 FUNETASCSC-TieteenCetotekniikankeskusOy

6.79% 6.69% 1.44%

AS24751 MULTIFI-ASJakobstadsnejdensTelefonAb

0.02% 0.02% 0.50%

AS39699 SSPOY-ASSSPYhCotOy 0.16% 0.04% 0.50%

AS29422 NBLNETWORKS-ASNebulaOy 1.56% 1.30% 0.42%

AS16086DNADNAOy

Android

iOS

AmassivebiasagainstIPv6onAndroid???

Ok..Ican’texplainthis.

•  MaybethisisaDHCPv6deploymentwithoutDHCPv6-PD?

•  HardtounderstandwhytherewouldbeasystemaCcbiasagainstAndroiddevicesfavouringiOS,– comparedto464xlatwhichisunderstoodtobiasagainstiOScapability

IPv6Capability:NO

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ASNrankedbyeyeballshareASN ASName IPv6

CapableIPv6Preferred

Eyeballshare

AS2119 TELENOR-NEXTELTelenorNorgeAS 9.76% 9.20% 50.99%

AS29695 ALTIBOXASAlCboxAS 1.74% 1.68% 10.22%

AS41164 GET-NOGetAS 27.05% 23.28% 8.48%

AS15659 NEXTGENTELNextGenTelAS 0.04% 0.04% 6.22%

AS2116 ASN-CATCHCOMBroadnetAS 0.06% 0.03% 5.16%

AS224 UNINETTUNINETT,TheNorwegianUniversityResearchNetwork

17.84% 16.29% 3.04%

AS12929 NETCOM-ASTeliaSoneraNorgeAS 0.05% 0.01% 2.64%

AS39832 NO-OPERAOperaSo\wareASA 51.75% 22.83% 2.24%

AS49455 LOQAL-ASLoqalAS 0.03% 0.00% 1.07%

AS15765 MIMERTa}ordMarkedAS 1.57% 1.48% 0.96%

AS2119TelenorNorgeAS

Weaklygroupeddata.SomebiasagainstiOSUnclearifusing464xlattranslaContechnology

RomaniandeploymentsofSignificance

•  AS8708RCS-RDSSA•  AS3223VoxilityS.R.L.

•  BothshowsignificantlylowerIPv6capabilityonmobiledevices,suggesCngtheyarepredominantlycable/ADSLdeployments,withlocalWiFinotpropagaCnganIPv6prefixorusingatransiConmechanismwhichdoesn’tsupportmobiledevices.

AS8708RCS-RDSSA

Groupeddata.WeakbiasagainstmobiledevicesNotusing464xlattranslaContechnology

AS3223VoxilityS.R.L.

Groupeddata.StrongbiasagainstmobiledevicesNotusing464xlattranslaContechnology

Conclusions•  APNIChasmovedawayfromadependencyonFlashandgainedinsightintomoredevices

•  APNICisnowabletoseeinsideMobile&Cellularnetworks,andseesignificantdeploymentdifferencesemergefromtransiConmethod,technologies

•  TransiConmechanismslike464xlatworkandcanboostIPv6capabilityintherightcircumstances–  ReducespressureonCGN/NATaddressdevices–  CannotsupportiOS,whichmaynotmagerinsomemarkets

ThankYou!

•  ThankstoGoogle,ISC,RIPENCCforhosCngandassistancewiththeresearchprogramme

•  IfyouareinterestedinIPv6measurementsthereisalottotalkaboutoverabeer…

ThankYou!