Doing nothing is not an option

Zoltan MaklaryNovember 2016

Changes in the way we view, adopt and use mobility are an opportunity to improve our cities, their liveability and our economy; it will help us to meet the challenges of population

growth, urbanisation and sustainability

The past and present

Historically speaking…

Cars that provide point-to-point travel at an individual level.

Rail that provides mass transit between key destinations.

Light rail and buses that service the journeys in between.

When we think of transport challenges, we generally think in terms of modes instead of journeys (e.g. very fast rail, light rail, bus rapid transit etc.)

Modes in the traditional transport hierarchy

With regard to our expenditure and planning, we tend to focus more on the physical asset (e.g. roads, rail, terminals) and adding more capacity to these.

This is unsustainable.We need to start

thinking differently…

We need to move from thinking about vehicles and modes to end-to-

end journeys for people

and business.

This need is being driven by population growth, urbanisation, and shifts in people’s expectations.

But our legislation and regulations are based on the past, and changes can take years to implement.

The Uber response was reactive,

disaggregated and slow despite Australia being a late adopter.

Funding for public infrastructure is stretched and at breaking point, with no easy and obvious alternatives.

How do we fund our transport infrastructure?

How do we manage congestion?

And so, we have 2 burning questions…

12

The future of mobility

Ridesharing Autonomous vehiclesMobility as a service

…are just the beginning

Advisian / 15

Transportation will no longer be about modes and car ownership – point-to-point,

seamless mobility that can be changed to suit people’s

needs will become the future.

The Internet of Things will connect in real time:• Devices • Infrastructure • People• Government• Business

Connectivity will increase

Internet of Things

Autonomous vehicles will…represent a further step-change in reduced car ownership, while preserving independence and relieving the load on fixed public transport.

Advisian / 18

But to capture the benefits of AVs our

infrastructure must evolve…

Line markingsLane size/structureBridgesTunnelsIntersection designLane mergingLightingSignage

Our traditional transport infrastructure includes:

Advisian / 20

Future transport infrastructure will need to be Smart

2017Vehicle to

Vehicle

2018Vehicle to

Device

2018Vehicle to Pedestrian

2018Vehicle to

Home

2018Vehicle to

Grid

2018Vehicle to

Infrastructure

To be truly effective and capture the benefits autonomous vehicles – connectivity is essential. This requires an on going investment into upgrading and adding new infrastructure, introducing more complexity.Evolution of technology from vehicle to ‘anything’

The driverless car – complexity?The eco system of the driverless car is full of considerations, but equally rich with opportunity

- Cost- Network effects and after-market- Driver education- Technology- Consumer pull

Network density and after-market - Legislation -

Infrastructure investment - Consumer acceptance -

Geopolitical factors -

Self-driving operation considerations

Autonomous evolution or revolution

What else will go autonomous?Taxis Shuttles Trains Trucks Ships Planes

We are moving from a past where ‘autonomous’ meant tightly controlled, highly regulated and high-cost infrastructure, to one that is unconstrained, ever changing, open, and driven by the community and industry.

What and when they will come online – no one really knows

The PastDriver Only1

TodayAssisted

2020-2025Highly automated

2017-2020Partially Automated

2026-2030Fully automated

2

3

4

5

From now till 2040+ we are in transition - arguably a mixed fleet will exist for decades

Why do we need to change?

Advisian / 26

Population growth and urbanisation

Advisian / 27

Safety (remove the human)

Advisian / 28

Economics – productivity benefits from automation

Accessibility and rapid development of technology

Shrinking sources of government revenue from fuel excise, etc.

Advisian / 31

Sustainability

How do we change?

React Provide guidance

Lead the transition

To date most governments - if not all - have followed option 1, some option 2, and very few option 3

Driving the change

Education InfrastructureLegislation and

Regulationfuturenow

Inform the publicGet them comfortable Sell the benefitsIdentify the risks and how they will be eliminated

Education

Key areas to address:• Roads rules governing

vehicle control• Trials• Vehicle safety and

standards• Data and cybersecurity• Market driven technology

and innovation• Harmonisation across States

Legislation and Regulation

A planned proactive and communicated strategy is needed

Industry self regulation Codes of practice National

guidelinesLegislative

solution

Governments oversee

deployment and safety assurance

Increasing level of government control

Differing levels of government control in autonomous vehicle deployment (source: NTC)

How will governments maintain and improve transportation? Is the option of adopting road user charging for AVs the step-change opportunity? AVs will impact both existing and new infrastructure

Infrastructure

And now?

We need to get involved and lead the transition!

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