Post on 02-Apr-2015
DOE Climate modeling strategy
G. L. GeernaertDOE/SC
• Why climate modeling
• Who does what across the federal government
• Climate modeling capabilities in DOE
• What the data show
• Who does what across the federal government
• Roadmap for DOE supported climate modeling research
Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory
Modern CO2 concentrations are increasing The current concentration is the highest in 800,000 years, as determined by ice
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
320
340
360
380
Par
ts p
er m
illio
n (p
pm)
Concentration now ~400 ppmConcentration now ~400 ppm
• Antarctic ice core data show that concentration did not exceed 280 ppm for about the last 800,000 years
• Concentration prior to 1800 was 280 ppm
Under a “business-as-
usual” scenario, concentrations could rise to 1,000 ppm
Under a “business-as-
usual” scenario, concentrations could rise to 1,000 ppm
Carbon emissions by energy sector
Coal-fired power plants emit more CO2
(~ 33% of the U.S. total) than any other source,
including surface transportation.
Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2008, Annual Energy Outlook 2008;EIA, 2007, Emission of Greanhouse Gases in the United States 2006
Global temperature anomalies from the 1890–1919 average
5
Climate processes and components
ENSO and climate
USG climate modeling platforms for research
Platform Agency* Mission Assets and strengths Leveraging
GFDL NOAA Public safety, fisheries, forecasting
in-house, co-located; seasonal to centennial
DOE HPC; Community
GISS NASA Satellite sensor design/deploy
In-house, co-located; data assimilation
Community
Community NSF Basic science, workforce development
NCAR DOE labs
Community DOE Energy sector vulnerability, resilience, security
National Labs, NCAR, LCF / ASCR; UQPCMDI, ESGF/other, dedicated field research
NSF, GFDL, GISS
*each agency also has a science mission.
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research
10 BER Climate – OMB 2015
Evolution of Earth System Research Modeling at DOEAtmosphere/
Land
Ocean
Sulfate aerosols
Carbon cycle
Dynamic Ice sheet-ocean, SLR
Atmosphere/Land
Atmosphere/Land
Atmosphere/Land
Atmosphere/Land
OceanSea-ice
OceanSea-ice
Ocean, Sea-iceOceanSea-ice
Sulfate, dust, sea-salt, carbon
aerosols
Aerosol size, mixtures, cloud
effects, chemistry
Carbon cycleInteractive vegetation
Biogeochemical cycles
Dynamic vegetation
Biogeochemical cycles
Carbon-water coupling
Human-water/energy/
atmosphere/land
Variable meshAtmosphere/ice-
sheets/ocean
Mature development
Active development
Challenge:UQ distribution within and among climate components
Integrated Earth System Prediction
(w/IA, IAV)
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research
11 BER Climate – OMB 2015
Metrics and questions drive validation exercises
•Standard measures: temperature, precipitation, cloudiness..
•Scale: global, regional, surface, troposphere, stratosphere., …
•Questions: El Nino; Monsoonal; Sea ice; Sea level rise, (climate sensitivity) ...
Spatial resolution of climate models is increasing
25 km
150 km
75 km
300 km
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research
13 BER Climate – OMB 2015
Metrics – what’s missing from last slide?
EXTREMES
Ice storms
Snow stormsHurricanes
Severe drought
Heat wavesCold waves
Flood
Tornadoes
Storm surge
Energy and climate change
Energy issues•Grid reliability•Energy supply•Energy extraction•Pipelines•Infrastructure design•Technology design•Security vulnerability
Climate signatures of changing…•Extreme temperature•Drought extent and duration•Sea level rise•Severe precipitation•Changing precipitation patterns•Jet stream dynamics•Sea ice coverage•Permafrost thaw rates•Surface hydrology•Subsurface hydrology
USGCRP strategic plan (released in 2012)
– Goal 1: Advance Science• Extremes, thresholds, tipping points
– Goal 2: Inform Decisions
– Goal 3: Conduct Sustained Assessments
– Goal 4: Communicate and Educate
– Crosscut: Provide knowledge on scales appropriate for decision making
– Cross-cut: Incorporate social and biological sciences
– Cross-cut: enable response to global change via iterative risk management
– Under discussion: Risk Modeling Framework
CESD Goals• Process knowledge and innovative computational methods
advancing next-generation, integrated models of the human-Earth system.
• Process-level understanding of atmospheric systems and terrestrial ecosystems, extending from bedrock to the top of the vegetative canopy.
• Coupled biogeochemical processes in complex subsurface environments to enable systems-level environmental prediction and decision support.
• Enhance the unique capabilities and impacts of the ARM and EMSL scientific user facilities and other BER community resources to advance the frontiers of climate and environmental science.
• Address science gaps that lead to solutions for DOE’s most pressing energy and environmental challenges.
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research16 US European Workshop
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research
17 BER Climate – OMB 2015
DOE roadmap to advance predictability
ObservationalInfrastructure
Community Modeling
Community DataInfrastructure
Uncertaintycharacterization
ComputingNumerics
Resolution
ExtremesThresholds
Tipping points
ARM
IFRCEMSL
ESGF
Ameriflux
CESM and components
Systemintegration
PCMDI
CDIACRASM
IAM
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research18 OMB briefing Sept 2012
Predictability Research Roadmap
UQ
Spatial resolution (km)40020010050251052 800
1990
2000AR3
2007AR42013
AR52015
2020AR6?
2023
TODAY
General circulation
models
General circulation
models
Earth system models
Earth system models
Regional climate models
Regional climate models
Integrated assessment
models
Integrated assessment
models
GCMs are becoming more highly coupled like ESMs
GCMs are being
dynamically downsized to regional
scales
Regional Models and IAMs share a regional focus
IAMs will ultimately be included in ESMs to form Integrated ESMs
Relationships among model types
ESMs can be
dynamically downsized to
regional scales
What are the major knowledge gaps in climate models?
ARM Research Sites – FY14 vs FY13Testbeds for high resolution models
Southern Great Plains (1993) North Slope of Alaska: Barrow (1998) and Atqasuk (1999) Tropical Western Pacific: Manus (1996), Nauru (1998), and Darwin (2002) First ARM Mobile Facility (2005); Second ARM Mobile Facility (2010) ARM Aerial Facility (2007) Eastern North Atlantic and Third ARM Mobile Facility (2013)
°
°
Future: three major challenges for DOE
• Major upgrade in climate model platform capabilities
• Big data analytics – interoperability, diagnostics, modularity
• Shift to a new class of science problems
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research
23 BER Climate – OMB 2015
Modeling towards high resolution, reduced uncertainty
Sources of uncertainty in climate modeling
Computational system errors and limitations
Computational system errors and limitations
Limits to theory and understanding
Limits to theory and understanding
Limits to the ability to mathematically describe
the earth system
Limits to the ability to mathematically describe
the earth system
Software ready for Exascale Computing
• Upgrade CESM codes, interoperable and modular components at petascale
• Exascale computing (1018 flops) will increase the speed of computation by three orders of magnitude over today’s state-of-the-art petascale computers
• Exascale computing will enable:– Simulation of clouds over their natural
range of scales for global climate
– Modeling fully turbulent exchange of heat and gases between the atmosphere and ocean
– Robust climate models for early warning, adaptation, and mitigation
– Higher resolution“Challenges in Climate Change Science and the Role of Computing at the Extreme Scale.” DOE BER and ASCR, 2009.
The Future: Big Data for climate/earth sciences
• Science tools, testbeds, ease of access for community
• Unification of metadata involving– ESGF, CDIAC (Ameriflux), NGEE, ARM
– Kbase
• Common formats with other agencies
Big Science Questions
• Extreme phenomena– Storms: ice, snow, hurricanes, etc.
– Storm surge
– Hydrology
• Abrupt Climate Change – Large-scale climate shifts that occur quickly,
persists for decades to millennia, and can cause substantial disruptions in human and natural systems
– 4 types of ACC would pose a major challenge to society:
• Rapid change in glaciers, ice sheets, permafrost, and sea level
• Widespread changes to the hydrologic cycle, including droughts
• Abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
• Rapid release of methane to the atmosphere