Food Demand in Context of Dietary Diversification in

South Asian Countries

Praduman Kumar P.K.Joshi

International Food Policy Reseaerch Institute-New Delhi pkumariari@gmail.com

The Context • South Asia has 22% world population, 3% world land

and 11% arable land • Remarkable progress in agricultural production in

last three decades: food deficit to food self-sufficient • Technology triggered the growth • Household food and nutrition security remains a

challenge in South Asian countries

Structural changes in dietary pattern in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan

Food demand projections to 2030

Food demand supply gap

Concerns towards food supply and nutritional- security

Outlines of Presentation

Sources of data

• Household income and expenditure survey data for various rounds in Bangladesh

• Household income and expenditure survey data for various rounds in Pakistan

• Household data on consumer expenditure data collected under various rounds of National Sample Survey in India

Changes in consumption of cereals (kg/capita/annum)

186 171

168

142

137

113

020406080

100120140160180200

Bangladesh India Pakistan

19902005

Changes in consumption of pulses (kg/capita/annum)

5.1

5.2

11.7

8.9

6.5

5.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Bangladesh India Pakistan

19902005

Changes in consumption of edible oils (kg/capita/annum)

3.6

6

4.4

6.4

7.5

9.6

0123456789

10

Bangladesh India Pakistan

19902005

Changes in consumption of sugar (kg/capita/annum)

3.4 3

11

9.5

14.5

18.4

02468

101214161820

Bangladesh India Pakistan

19902005

Changes in consumption of vegetables & fruits (kg/capita/annum)

87

100

51

77 68 65

0102030405060708090

100

Bangladesh India Pakistan

19902005

Changes in consumption of milk (kg/capita/annum)

11.8

11.8

44

57

79

108

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Bangladesh India Pakistan

19902005

Changes in consumption of fish, meat & eggs (kg/capita/annum)

21.5

22.8

5.3

6.9

9

13

0

5

10

15

20

25

Bangladesh India Pakistan

19902005

Income elasticity of food demand

Food Bangladesh India Pakistan Rice -0.01 0.02 0.14 Wheat 0.06 0.07 -0.08 Pulses 0.39 0.22 0.33 Edible oils 0.32 0.30 0.12 Sugar 0.30 0.06 0.05 Vegetables 0.42 0.26 0.54 Fruits 0.58 0.36 0.57 Milk 0.56 0.43 0.49 Fish, meat & eggs 0.66 0.67 0.62

Changes in Dietary Pattern in Bangladesh 2010-2030 (%)

50.4

48.1

43.3

30

26.8

18.8

6.5

4.4-0.3

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

rice

wheat

edible oil

sugar

pulses

vegetables

fruits

milk

Fish, meat, eggs

Per cent

``

Changes in Dietary Pattern in Pakistan 2010-2030 (%)

32.829.7

25.5

24.617.3

9.58.3

8.8-1.7

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

wheat

rice

edible oil

sugar

pulses

fruits

milk

vegetables

fish, meat, eggs

Per cent

``

Changes in Dietary Pattern in India 2010-2030 (%)

33.730.8

28.6

26.826.3

24.719.5

11.1-0.1

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

rice

wheat

pulses

vegetables

sugar

pulses

fruits

Fish, meat, eggs

milk

Per cent

``

Share of total calories and protein from foodgrains (% of total intake)

Food

2010 2020 2030

Bangladesh Calories 75.7 73.1 70.8 Protein 63.6 59.1 55.3

India Calories 63.1 61.3 58.6 Protein 75.6 74.0 71.7

Pakistan

Calories 48.6 46.5 44.7

Protein 57.3 54.3 51.7

Food expenditure and calories income elasticites in South Asian countries

Income Elasticity Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

Food expenditure 0.323 0.290 0.380 Total calories 0.094 0.056 0.066

Population Projections in South Asian Countries

Year Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

Population (millions)

2010 148.7 1190.7 173.3

2015 158.3 1272.0 190.6

2020 167.3 1344.9 208.3

2025 175.2 1408.2 224.9

2030 181.9 1471.3 240.3

Food demand in Bangladesh (million ton) Food 2010 2020 2030 Growth,%

Rice 23.8 26.7 29.0 0.99

Wheat 0.67 0.77 0.85 1.22

Total cereals 25.4 28.6 31.1 1.02

Pulses 0.88 1.13 1.36 2.23

Foodgrains 30.7 34.8 38.0 1.06

Edible oils 1.22 1.43 1.61 1.37

Sugar 0.97 1.21 1.43 1.97

Vegetables & fruits

20.5 26.8 33.0 2.41

Milk 2.9 4.0 5.1 2.76

Fish 2.6 3.7 4.9 3.08

Food demand in Pakistan (million ton) Food 2010 2020 2030 Growth,%

Rice 2.9 3.6 4.3 2.06

Wheat 21.2 25.2 28.9 1.56

Total cereals 27.5 33.3 38.7 1.72

Pulses 1.6 2.2 2.7 2.48

Foodgrains 29.2 35.5 41.4 1.76

Edible oils 2.9 3.6 4.3 2.07

Sugar 5.3 6.6 8.0 2.12

Vegetables & Fruits

20.2 27.6 35.6 2.88

Milk 36.5 49.6 63.6 2.81

Fish, meat & eggs

3.3 4.7 6.1 3.08

Food demand in India (million ton) Food 2010 2020 2030 Growth,%

Rice 98.7 111.8 122.4 1.08

Wheat 83.0 98.3 114.6 1.63

Total cereals 218.1 252.6 284.2 1.33

Pulses 18.0 21.9 26.6 1.97

Foodgrains 236.2 274.4 310.8 1.38

Edible oils 13.6 16.9 21.3 2.25

Sugar 27.6 33.1 39.2 1.77

Vegetables 124.7 154.8 192.0 2.18

Fruits 64.8 80.9 103.0 2.35

Milk 111.9 143.2 184.9 2.54

Fish 6.4 8.2 11.1 2.80

Annual growth in Food Demand (%)

Food Bangladesh India Pakistan

Rice 0.99 1.08 2.06

Wheat 1.22 1.63 1.56

Total cereals 1.02 1.33 1.72

Pulses 2.23 1.97 2.48

Foodgrains 1.06 1.36 1.76

Edible oils 1.37 2.25 2.07

Sugar 1.97 1.77 2.12

Vegetables & fruits

2.41 2.16 2.88

Milk 2.76 2.54 2.81

Fish 3.08 2.80 3.08

Demand, Supply, and Trade for Rice in India

(Million ton)

Year Demand Supply Trade 2010 98.2 98.5 - 0.2 2015 105.8 108.4 2.6 2020 111.8 112.6 0.8 2025 116.9 123.4 6.5 2030 122.4 133.3 10.9

Demand, Supply, and Trade for Wheat in India

(Million ton)

Year Demand Supply Trade 2010 83.0 82.1 -0.9 2015 90.5 89.5 -1.0 2020 98.3 97.9 -0.4 2025 106.2 111.1 4.9 2030 114.6 123.5 8.9

Demand, Supply, and Trade for Pulses in India

(Million ton)

Year Demand Supply Trade 2010 18.0 14.9 (18.0) -3.1 2015 19.9 16.5 -3.4 2020 21.9 18.5 -3.4 2025 24.1 20.9 -3.2 2030 26.6 23.1 -3.5

Demand, Supply, and Trade for Edible Oils in India

(Million ton)

Year Demand Supply Trade 2010 13.6 8.9 -4.8 2015 15.2 11.0 -4.3 2020 17.0 13.6 -3.4 2025 19.0 16.2 -2.8 2030 21.3 19.0 -2.3

Demand, Supply, and Trade for Sugar in India

(Million ton)

Year Demand Supply Trade 2010 27.6 29.7 2.1 2015 30.3 33.6 3.3 2020 33.1 38.0 4.9 2025 36.0 44.2 8.2 2030 39.2 50.0 10.8

Summing up : • Diversifying the consumption basket in favor of high-

value foods, such as horticultural, livestock and fishries products.

• Pathway of change: Coarse gains → Rice/Wheat → Vegetables/ fruits/eggs/meat/fish/milk

• The steady changes in consumption pattern, driven by income growth, life style and infrastructural facilities

• Protein intake increasing mainly due to dietary diversification towards high value non-cereals commodities

• Future food demand is high and require higher productivity growth

Major concerns towards food and nutritional security in South Asia

• Decelerating TFP growth • Slackness in investment on agricultural research, technology development and extension • Continued increase in population • Diminishing land and freshwater resources • Expanding biotic & abiotic stresses, increasing

soil salinity and waterloging problem

Contd… • South Asian countries may experience a deficit in

production to match their domestic need of the food commodities.

• India being a large country, influencing production, consumption and trade, has to play a responsible role in maintaining its own self-reliance in food production and meeting the additional requirements of its neighbouring countries

• Farming systems approach in ecosystem framework to pursue diversification (livestock, horticulture, fisheries)