Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank...

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Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference

Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO June 4, 2015 | www.nscorp.com

Current Railway Volumes Second Quarter through Week 21 (May 30, 2015)

2nd Quarter Volume: Down 2%

1,213.0 1,191.7

2014 2015

Change in Units 2QTD 2015 vs. 2014

Intermodal

Chemicals

Automotive

Paper

Agriculture

MetCon

Coal

18,067/ 3%

10,953/ 15%

1,543/ 2%

1,107/ 2%

(3,332)/ (3%)

(7,401)/ (6%)

(42,160)/ (19%)

1Q14 1Q15 2QTD14 2QTD15

Coal Volumes Through Week 21 (May 30, 2015)

Utility

Export

1Q14 1Q15 2QTD14 2QTD15

20% 30%

20%

6%

Fuel Surcharge Revenue

$295

$358 $368

$308

$163

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

($M) • WTI basis is down 50% in

2Q15 vs. 2Q14 ($51 vs. $101 per barrel)

• 1Q15 included favorable

$24M lag benefit

• 2Q15 unfavorable lag is expected

Further declines expected

Expense Headwinds

Service Recovery Costs Wage and Payroll Tax Increases Roanoke Relocation Expenses

Train Speed

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2014

Terminal Dwell

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 20

25

30

35

2015 2014

Composite Service Performance

83%

73% 75%

69%

63%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15

64%

Composite Service Performance

83%

73% 75%

69%

63%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2Q15

70%

6 percentage points

Business Outlook • Opportunities for highway conversions • Growth with strategic corridor projects • West Coast port disruptions • Growth of natural gas liquids • Crude oil shipments to East Coast refiners • Increased consumer spending • Strength in automotive production and sales • Improved construction activity • Growth in ethanol and soybean exports

• Softening steel production • Coal burn rate impacted by lower natural gas prices • High coal stockpiles • Strong competition in global coal markets

34%

42%

24% 33%

50%

17%

2009 Volume 2014 Volume

Coal Intermodal Merchandise

Managing Shifting Traffic Mix

Opportunities for Growth

Energy

• Oil and natural gas • Coal continues in

the mix

Manufacturing • Cost of US manufacturing • FDI in the US

Highway Conversions • Road congestion • Driver availability • $700B in US trucking

revenues

Guiding Principles

Deliver safe, reliable, efficient service Maximize incremental margin Reinvest in the core franchise Return funds to shareholders Advance shareholder interests