Demographic Trends in South-East Asia THE impor tance of the popula t ion

prob lem in the countr ies o f south-east A s i a h a r d l y needs to be emphasised. No discussion of the problems of these countr ies is in fact complete w i t h o u t a reference to popula t ion pressures and rates o f g r o w t h o f popula t ion . W h i l e the h i g h popula t ion pressure has kep t Income levels a n d s tandards o f l i v ­i n g ve ry l o w a n d has also hampered efforts to b r i n g about r a p i d econo­mic development, one of the mos t acute problems in these countr ies has a lways arisen out of the need to provide increas ing employmen t oppor tuni t ies to new en t r an t s i n t o the field, a p rob lem made more acute by the h i g h ra te o f g r o w t h of popula t ion .

The rates of n a t u r a l increase in popula t ion have not r e a l l y been very h igh in any absolute sense; they have been h i g h r e l a t i ve ly to the a b i l i t y of these countr ies to provide employment oppor tuni t ies a n d m a i n ­t a in income levels. The ra te o f i n ­ves tment necessary to balance the demographic ra te has consequently been higher t h a n these countr ies have been able to achieve easily. I t has been quite clear t h a t o n l y orga­nised effor t on a large scale w o u l d l i f t these countr ies ou t of the morass in to w h i c h they have f a l l en .

I n th i s context , demographic t rends in the countr ies of th i s reg ion since the end of the w a r are of the u t m o s t significance and mus t p rovoke con­siderable t hough t amongs t econo­mis ts and po l icy-makers in these countr ies . A s tudy of these trends published In a recent issue of E C A F E ' s B u l l e t i n * emphasises t h a t the "ra te o f popula t ion g r o w t h has recent ly been acce lera t ing in par ts o f the E C A F E reg ion" and points out t h a t t h i s accelera t ion can be t raced to "progress 've reduct ions In death rates, n o t m a t c h e d in most cases by corresponding changes in the b i r t h ra te ." The o n l y coun t ry in the region where t h i s c o m m o n tendency is def in i te ly absent is Japan, where condi t ions in m a y res-peets d i f fer m a r k e d y f r o m those p r e v a i l i n g in o ther countr ies o f the reg ion .

As has been pointed out above, the rates o f g r o w t h o f popula t ion in these countries, w h i c h h a d been f a i r l y h i g h t i l l the b e g i n n i n g o f t he Second W o r l d W a r , have showed a considerable increase since then a n d

* E c o n o m i c B u l l e t i n f o r A s i a and the F a r Eas t , M a y 1955.

there i s a definite u p w a r d t rend . Since th i s u p w a r d t r e n d arises p r i n ­c ipa l ly out o f d o w n w a r d t rends in m o r t a l i t y , a careful s tudy of these is necessary. M o r t a l i t y t rends ex­h i b i t t w o definite periods, the f i rs t p r i o r t o the Second W o r l d W a r , and the second, the cur ren t post-war period.

Mortal i ty Trends

I n f o r m a t i o n about l ong - t e rm demo­graphic t rends is ava i lab le fo r a few countr ies on ly . The au thors of the study feel, however, t h a t the s imi ­l a r i t y o f condi t ions in the countries of the region and the character is t ics of these t rends themselves suggest t h a t the pa t t e rn in a l l countr ies i s l i k e l y to be s imi l a r to t h a t found in the few countr ies for w h i c h Infor­m a t i o n is avai lable . The experience of Ceylon and T a i w a n is considered p a r t i c u l a r l y s igni f icant f r o m this point o f v iew (Table 1 ) . In both, the dea th ra te before 1920 was at a level of about 35 per thousand persons. The c o r r e s p o n d n g expec­t a t i o n of l i fe a t b i r t h was about 28 years. Between the first and second w o r l d wars , the crude death ra te declined g r a d u a l l y f r o m this level of 35 per thousand, and seemed to be t end ing towards a l i m i t of about 18 per thousand, w h i c h corres­ponds to an expectat ion of l i fe of about 43 to 45 years. Whi l e the more f avourab ly s i tuated countries could be expected to a t t a i n th i s low death ra te w i t h o u t any g rea t change in levels of l i v i n g , i t i s d e a r t h a t a decline of m o r t a l i t y t o w a r d such a level h a d begun p r i o r to the Second W o r l d W a r i n a l l the countr ies o f the region, t hough some h a d pro­ceeded m u c h f a r t he r t han others.

I n d i a was one of the countries w h e n had proceeded least in th is ve ry desirable d i r ec t ion . The mor­t a l i t y rates w h i c h h a d been abnor­m a l l y h i g h p r i o r to 1921, being we l l over 40 per thousand, p robab ly ow­i n g to the frequency of famines and pestilence over large par ts of the count ry , showed, d u r i n g the subse­quent decades, a subs tan t i a l a n d steady decline. The death ra te was es t imated at 36 per thousand d u r i n g the decade 1921-30 a n d at 31 per thousand d u r i n g the decade 1931-40.

Since the war , a new m o r t a l i t y s i t ua t i on has developed in some countr ies of the region , a s i t ua t i on w h i c h m a y be l a t e r dupl ica ted !n the o ther countr ies too. " W i t h the advent o f new drugs to c o n t r o l the

andemic diseases," the s tudy points out, " the dea th ra te entered a steep decline t o w a r d a new l i m i t w h i c h seems to be located at about 10 per thousand persons." Th i s corresponds to an expecta t ion of l i fe of about 60 years. T h i s t r end is a l ready in operat ion in Ceylon and T a i w a n , but not yet power fu l enough in I n d i a and m a i n l a n d China . The rap id decline in death rates w h i c h has t aken place d u r i n g the post-war period in Ceylon, T a i w a n and the Federat ion of M a l a y a has b rought down dea th rates a l ready f r o m the moderate level of about 20 to 25 per thousand d u r i n g 1935-40 to the f a i r l y low level of about 10 to 15 in 1952-53. ( Table 1) In Ind i a , the death ra te has shown a steady de­cline f r o m the r a the r h i g h level of 31 per thousand d u r i n g 1931-40 to the modera te ly l ow level of about 25 per thousand in 1952. The factors wh ich have operated to reduce mor­t a l i t y rates sharp ly d u r i n g the post­w a r period in Ceylon and T a i w a n have p robab ly been on ly p a r t i a l l y in opera t ion in I n d i a d u r i n g th is period and in the near fu ture m a y be expected to operate there also w i t h the same effects.

B i r t h Kates Whi le th i s is the pa t t e rn of mor­

t a l i t y rates, " the genera l ly h i g h levels of b i r t h rates of f r o m 40 to 45 per thousand have not changed very m u c h between the pre-war and post -war per iod ." In Ceylon, there has been a s l igh t f a l l f r o m 50 per thousand p r i o r to 1900 to 45 per thousand in 1901-10 and to 40 since then. (Table 2) . These changes can p robab ly be explained by factors such as the increase in the age of ma r r i age w h i c h is in evidence since the t u r n of the cen tury a n d the i n ­creasing u rban i sa t ion .

In T a i w a n , wha teve r evidence i s ava i lab le ac tua l l y suggests t ha t fer­t i l i t y m a y have ac tua l ly increased somewhat , wh i l e i n I n d i a , b i r t h rates have f a l l en f r o m about 50 per thous­and d u r i n g 1381-1920 to 45 d u r i n g 1921-40 a n d to 40 d u r i n g 1941-50, As in Ceylon, however, these changes are not due to any change in m a r i t a l f e r t i l i t y bu t have been probably b rough t about by m i n o r shif ts in the p ropor t ions of ma r r i ed women in var ious age groups.

A f a i r l y clear picture of the demographic s i tua t ion in these coun­t r ies emerges f r o m these facts. Ex-cept In Japan, death rates have fa l l en o r are l i k e l y t o f a l l t o f a i r l y

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low levels. B i r t h ra tes have shown o n l y s l i gh t f a l l s , i f a t a l l , a n d are no t l i ke l y to be af fec ted immed ia te l y by t he f a c t o r s t h a t a re b r i n g i n g about a f a l l i n m o r t a l i t y . I f any ­t h i n g , a n i m p r o v e m e n t i n h e a l t h and In s u r v i v a l o f w o m e n t h r o u g h ch i l d -b i r t hs m a y tend to increase the b i r t h ra tes. I t i s c lear t h a t cer­t a i n t rends In the ra tes o f n a t u r a l increase w h i c h emerged f r o m these fac ts d u r i n g the p re -war per iod are l i ke l y to have been accentuated d u r i n g the pos t -war per iod .

Ra tes o f Popu la t i on G r o w t h

A s tudy of these ra tes of n a t u r a l increase show t h a t these were h i g h in mos t south-east A s i a n count r ies and areas, n o t a b l y Cey lon, the Fede­r a t i o n o f M a l a y a a n d T a i w a n , dur­i n g the p re -war per iod 1936-40, show­i n g a ra te r a n g i n g f r o m 10 to 25 per t housand per a n n u m . (Tab le 3) Since the end of the Second W o r l d W a r , because o f the fac to rs men­t ioned above, the ra tes o f popu la t ion g r o w t h have shown a r i s i ng tend­ency. " T h e per iod o f the ear ly 1950s," the E C A P E s tudy po in ts out, "has wi tnessed in these count r ies such h i g h levels o f n a t u r a l increase as 30 to 35 per t housand per a n n u m . Those levels are among; the h ighest ever k n o w n In the w o r l d . " (bo ld ou rs ) .

These levels o f popu la t ion g r o w t h rates are no doubt to be f o u n d at present in these t w o or th ree coun­t r ies on ly . I n t h e o ther E C A F E countr ies, the present levels of the a n n u a l ra tes o f n a t u r a l increase are about 10 to 20 per thousand, r ough l y comparab le to the present ra te in I n d i a a n d to the ra tes observed i n Cey lon , T a i w a n a n d M a l a y a dur­i ng the p r e - w a r per iod. T h e wide­spread dec l i n ing m o r t a l i t y o f the reg ion, " imp l i es t h a t these o ther count r ies also m a y experience ra is­i n g t rends i n n a t u r a l increase i f l i t t l e r e l a t i ve change takes place in the i r b i r t h ra tes . "

J a p a n — A n Except ion

Japan i s the on ly coun t r y in th is reg ion in w h i c h these common tend­encies a re n o t to be found . T h a t c o u n t r y "seems to be app roach ing a new demograph ic equ i l i b r i um, w i t h bo th low f e r t i l i t y a n d m o r t a l i t y . " T h e a t t a i n m e n t o f such an equ i l i ­b r i u m does no t , o f course, i m p l y t h a t Japan w i l l have no demograph ic prob lems bu t r a t h e r t h a t the cha ra ­cter o f these prob lems w i l l be d i f fe r ­ent . A m o n g these new prob lems are those a r i s i n g ou t o f the a g i n g o f the popu la t i on a n d those caused by the lega l i sa t i on o f a b o r t i o n .

M o r t a l i t y ra tes in Japan were a l ready l ow p r i o r t o the w a r , s t a n d ­i n g at 17 per t housand d u r i n g 1935-39. T h e expecta t ion o f l i f e a t b i r t h w h i c h was a l ready as h i g h as 45 years a t the beg inn ing o f t he cen­t u r y rose to 50 years by the end o f the Second W o r l d W a r . " T h i s modera te change" i t i s a rgued, " w a s due m a i n l y to a decl ine in Japanese i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y , since l i f e expect­ancy at age 1 rema ined f a i r l y con­s t a n t a t the level o f 50 years d u r i n g t h a t per iod . " By 1953, t h e m o r t a ­l i t y ra tes h a d decl ined even f u r t h e r u n t i l they h a d reached the l o w leve l of 9 per thousand . (Tab le 1) P r o m the po in t o f v iew o f m o r t a l i t y ra tes ,

i t cou ld be argued t h a t J a p a n was p r o v i d i n g the lead w h i c h w a s be ing fo l l owed by the o ther count r ies o f the reg ion .

T h e b i r t h ra te i n Japan i s ex t re ­me ly low, be ing below 30 per thous­and- A compar i son of the p re -war a n d pos t -war periods "shows t h a t Japan i s the on ly E C A F E coun t r y where a def in i te decl ine of m o r t a l i t y has occur red . " F a m i l y l i m i t a t i o n is p robab ly the m a i n reason f o r the decl ine i n f e r t i l i t y . A b o r t i o n was recent ly made lega l l y permiss ib le a n d i t i s in f a c t resor ted to on a la rge scale. T h e decl ine in b i r t h ra te since 1950, when i t was 28 per thousand, has been ve ry steep f o r

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these reasons. It fel l to 22 in 1953. (Table 2) A m o n t h by m o n t h ana­lysis shows an a lmos t cont inuous decline over the period 1950-54 a l l ow­ing fo r the seasonal pa t t e rn of b i r ths . The gross reproduct ion rates of Japan dropped f r o m 2.66 in 1920 to 2.-10 in 1930, a n d 2.06 In 1940. There was a shor t recovery to 2.22 in 1940's as shown by the 1947-48 data, but th i s was fo l lowed by a renewed decline to 1.82 in 1950 and to 1.62 in 1951.

Despite the f a l l in b i r t h rates, rates of n a t u r a l increase In Japan tended to rise t i l l 1950, since the decline in dea th rates tended to be even more rap id . Rates Of n a t u r a l increase were 12.0 per thousand in 1920-24. 13.7 in 1930-34, 13.8 in 1940-44 and 17.3 in 1950. I t is on ly in very recent years t h a t f a l l i n g f e r t i ­l i t y has tended to outpace f a l l i n g m o r t a l i t y , as the l a t t e r reached very low levels. The ra te of n a t u r a l i n ­crease in 1953 f e l l aga in to 12.6 per thousand per a n n u m , (Table 3 ) In due course, i f b i r t h rates keep on f a l l i ng , as seems ve ry l i k e l y , Japan may reach a demographic equi l i ­b r i u m w i t h no change in popula t ion a t a l l .

The fac tors tha t have resul ted in this s i tua t ion for Japan are no t I i ke ly to be duplicated in the o ther countr ies a t an ear ly date. W h i l e the f a l l i n dea th ra te i n Japan w i l l be repeated in the other countries, there is no reason to believe t h a t the b i r t h rates w i l l show a s i m i l a r t rend—at a n y ra te In the near future .

The s tudy argues, " i t Is possible — though perhaps not l i k e l y in the i m ­mediate f u t u r e - t h a t the increasing load of dependency w i l l Induce A s i a n famil ies to cut d o w n the i r f e r t i l i t y as the Europeans d i d a hundred years ago." I t must be noted, how­ever, t ha t in Europe the f a l l in death rates, w h i c h was fo l lowed

af te r a t ime - l ag by a f a l l in b i r t h rates, occurred as a resu l t of indus­t r i a l i s a t i o n a n d consequent r i s i n g s tandards of l i v i n g . T h i s i s n o t the case in the countr ies of south-east As ia , where the decline of m o r t a l i t y "is not due to an improvemen t of the leve l of l i v i n g b u t has been la r ­gely b rough t about by the use of new drugs ." The problems w h i c h w i l l arise i n these countr ies are to t h a t extent of a d i f ferent charac ter f r o m those faced in Europe. The experience of European countr ies m a y not , therefore, prove v e r y help­fu l in t h i s context .

I t has also been noted in different studies t h a t the t ime-lags between the f a l l i n dea th rates a n d i n b i r t h rates in d i f ferent countr ies of Europe have dif fered wide ly . Only an idea of the social adjustments wh ich w i l l occur as a resul t of the decline of m o r t a l i t y can suggest af ter w h a t t ime- lag , b i r t h rates can be expected to f a l l appropr i a t e ly in south-east A s i a o r whe ther they w i l l f a l l a u t o m a t i c a l l y a t a l l . The ex­perience of Japan suggests the need for drast ic measures, but var ious reasons m a y deter the o ther count­ries of the region f r o m f o l l o w i n g Japan's example. The problem is clear; w h a t the so lu t ion can be, is a m a t t e r for separate examina t ion .

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