Post on 26-Feb-2016
description
Demographic Impacts on Minnesota’s Work Force:
the future in 15 minutes or less
Kyle UphoffRegional Analysis & Outreach Manager
Job Openings have Collapsed as Unemployment has Increased
Q2, 20
01
Q4 ,20
01
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02
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090
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Job Vacancies Unemployment Rate
Job
Vaca
ncie
s
Unem
ploy
men
t Rat
e
The recent recession will restructure an already shifting economic structure: Industries losing jobs in MN since March 2007
• Total Employment: -140,000 in 2 years• Construction: -28,600 (-37,000 in 3 years)• Manufacturing: -42,500 (-53,300 in 3 years)• Wholesale: -6,500• Retail: -19,000• Transportation: -10,000• Information: -3,700• Professional & Technical Services: -20,600• Employment Services: -9,000• Leisure & Hospitality: -12,800
A few Industries are still adding jobs but there are no safe bets anymore
• Healthcare: +8,200• Social Assistance: +5,100• Insurance: +1,200• Utilities: +700• Education: +3,600• Food Manufacturing: +1,000• Wholesale Nondurable goods: +1,200• Government: +200
Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit
Analysis and Evaluation Office
A full labor market recovery is years away…assuming we are in recovery now
2,600
2,650
2,700
2,750
2,800
2008 2009 2010 2011
Empl
oym
ent i
n Th
ousa
nds
Actual Projected
~140,000 Jobs Lost ~90,000 Jobs
Late 2012
Calculated based on Global Insight Inc US forecast,
The Post-Recessionary Landscape
• Lower labor force mobility• Postponed retirements• Less consumption- “the new frugality”• Increasing skills requirements• Continued shift to services• Government Policy risk and opportunity• Globalization risk and opportunity
The Shift to Services: Employment Change since 1991 MN Manufacturing vs. Healthcare
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Healthcare Manufacturing
Education Requirements are Increasing
Twin Cities data presented.Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
30%
39% 40%42%
51%48%
55%
45%
57%
42%
35%
28%
21% 19% 20%
23%24%
20%
Post-Secondary EducationNo Experience Needed
% o
f Tw
in C
ities
Job
Vac
anci
es
Education will be even more important in the future
• 65% of new job growth will require education beyond high school.
• Education beyond high school will be required for 17 out of the 20 fastest growing occupations.
• Good communication skills, customer service and computer knowledge will be required for future jobs.
Minnesota is projected to add 270,000 jobs between 2006 and 2016
ManufacturingUtilities
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & HuntingMining
Retail TradeInformation
Transportation and WarehousingWholesale Trade
ConstructionReal Estate and Rental and LeasingArts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Other Services, Ex. Public AdminManagement of Companies and Enterprises
Finance and InsuranceAccommodation and Food ServicesAdministrative and Waste Services
Educational ServicesProfessional and Technical Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
-25,000 -15,000 -5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000 55,000
-12,899
-890
-673
-9
1,814
2,354
2,747
4,273
4,983
5,528
6,365
8,098
10,915
12,352
14,252
14,807
15,318
24,019
49,778
Number of New Jobs, 2006 to 2016Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Minnesota is projected to have over 600,000 replacement job openings by 2016
Farming, Fishing & ForestryLegal
Life, Physical & Social SciencesArt, Design & Entertainment
Architecture & EngineeringProtective Services
Installation, Maintenance & RepairCommunity & Social Services
Health Care SupportBuilding, Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance
Computer & Mathematical
ConstructionTransportation & Material Moving
ManagementEducation, Training & Library
ProductionBusiness & Financial
Personal Care and ServicesHealth Care Practitioners & Technical
Food Preparation & Serving RelatedSales & Related
Office & Administrative Support
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000120,000140,000
New Jobs
Replacement Open-ings
Source: MN Dept of Employment & Economic Development
Technology is the biggest unknown
Time
Employment
IT Services?
Green Tech?Nanotech?
Computer Mfg?
CommoditizationMaturation or“the Golden Age”
Correction
Expansion/Speculation?
Inception
Microchips?
CreativeFinancing?
Skill and knowledge areas for “in demand” jobs
Skills and knowledge areas projected to be most utilized by future occupations:
Reading comprehension Active listening Speaking Writing Active learning Critical thinking Customer service Mathematics Clerical Education/training
Working in an era of shortage Labor Availability- Twin Cities Region
1,300,000
1,400,000
1,500,000
1,600,000
1,700,000
1,800,000
1,900,000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Avg. 2
009
Empl
oym
ent &
Lab
orfo
rce
Employment Workforce
Minnesota is Aging
When will they retire?
Will there be enough?
How productive canthey be?
An expanding economy will have to do with a slowing labor force
Labor shortages are already here in some places
Where will workers come from?
We need to fix racial disparities in educational attainment
The Aging of Society will Shift Spending Priorities
Some new entrants will be ready for the new labor market…some will not.
Where can I get this information?
• Kyle Uphoff (Manager): (651) 259-7185• Central/SW: Cameron Macht (320) 231-5174• Northeast: Drew Digby (218) 723-4774• Northwest: Nate Dorr (218) 333-8220• Metro: Rachel Vilsack (651) 642-0728• Southeast: Jennifer Ridgeway (507) 285-7327
www.positivelyminnesota.com