You see it in hot, dusty and desper-ate slums like Carrefour, where thedamage caused by the magnitude 7.0quake is slowly dissolving into the ur-ban decay caused by decades of abjectpoverty.

Some see the widespread destruc-tion as an opportunity for a historic re-birth. Haiti, after all, was once the rich-est French colony in the Americasthanks to its sugar, coffee and indigodye industries.

But I wonder instead if these are thefinal days of a country on its deathbed.

I have never witnessed the death ofa nation, but I would imagine that itlooks something like the trauma Haitiis going through.

The way Haitians and foreign aidworkers describe it, the recent earth-quake that brought the country to itsknees may just be the opening act.Many more crushing blows couldstrike later this year.

For starters, heavy rain will pelt theisland in the coming weeks. “Whenthe rains come, the streets are like thesea. There’s water everywhere,” saidmy driver, Mr Gean Sonny Lafable, 35.

The rain is expected to loosen andbring down whatever buildings theearthquake failed to destroy. The wa-ters would also accelerate the spreadof diseases among an alreadyshell-shocked population.

And if the hurricane season be-tween June and November turns out tobe as destructive as the ones in recentyears, all current efforts to provideHaitians with temporary shelter andclean water would be for naught.

In the face of all this, Haiti has nofunctioning government or central au-thority beyond the veneer of controlimposed by the massive United Statesmilitary presence.

Ordinary Haitians say they expect atwo-year wait before an election canbe held to pick a new government –that is, if public anger over the incom-petence of the surviving leaders doesnot explode into street violence and an-archy.

“All the ingredients for violence arepiling up day after day,” Mr MarcBazin, a former Haitian prime ministerand presidential candidate, told TheStraits Times.

“The government seems to becounting on the international commu-nity to keep the people quiet. But theyare wrong because beyond a certainpoint, there is nothing. People willcome looking for (the Haitian lead-ers).”

What happens then? Would therebe a revolution? Will Haiti turn on it-self in one final act of destruction?

“We have seen traces of civilisa-tions that have perished,” added MrBazin.

“So if civilisations could die, then acountry could die as well. It’s a horri-ble scenario, but we’ve got to integratethat scenario into what’s possible.”

Existential crisis

HAITI has been held back from a totalcollapse thus far by the massive injec-tion of international aid and the pres-ence of about 20,000 US troops.Many, however, wonder how long thiseffort can be sustained.

Even though President BarackObama has pledged to mobilise “everyelement of (US) national capacity” tohelp Haiti, it is lost on no one that heis already waging two expensive warsin Iraq and Afghanistan, and strug-gling to contain runaway governmentspending.

Yet, it is a problem from which MrObama cannot walk away.

A total collapse in Haiti wouldprompt refugees to flood the US.

More worryingly perhaps, it couldturn Haiti into the Yemen or Somaliaof the Caribbean, a safe haven for ter-rorist groups right on the doorstep ofAmerica.

Some, including ordinary Haitiansthemselves, have suggested that Wash-ington should go all the way and takeover Haiti entirely. There is a histori-cal precedence, given that the US occu-pied Haiti between 1915 and 1934.

“Haiti needs a strongman now,”said Mr Peter Doceis, 55, a street ven-dor. “The US should just take over. Ifnot, maybe China or Russia. We arenot afraid.”

The more likely outcome, I suspect,is one where Haiti languishes in an ex-istential limbo: neither strong enoughto stand on its own feet nor strategical-ly important enough to be swallowedup by a major power.

It is an ignominious fate for a na-tion that in 1804 became the first Lat-in American country to gain independ-ence, and the first to do so from a suc-cessful slave revolt.

“Haiti never gets a chance,” saidMr Chad Snyder, 33, an American mis-sionary whose family ties with Haiti goback 40 years. “Every time things areabout to look up, bam, they are hitwith some new trouble. I didn’t thinkthings could get any worse, but herewe are.”

The crossroads

DESPITE all the despondency, Mr Aar-on Nelson, a Haitian chef and evange-list, is not about to give up just yet.

He is hoping to tap into the outpour-ing of international goodwill to helpbuild a better future for the weakestlot in Haitian society: the orphans.

On an empty 1.2ha plot of land in ru-ral Gressier, a two-hour drive west ofthe capital Port-au-Prince, he hopesto build an orphanage for 200 chil-dren, and eventually a school for about400 students.

“I chose this place because I wantthe children to be far away from all thecraziness in the city,” Mr Nelson saidon Jan 24 when he brought me and two

volunteers from a Singapore relief mis-sion to the site of his dreams.

“This is where I hope they realisetheir aspirations. Maybe one day, thepresident of Haiti will come fromhere.”

Realising this vision will not comecheap. He has paid US$38,000(S$53,400) for the plot of land, butwould need another US$400,000 justto build the orphanage.

The Singapore volunteers fromnon-profit organisation CityCare saidthey would study Mr Nelson’s plans to

see if they could help raise funds. Giv-en the millions of dollars in donationsbeing raised for Haiti around the clock,Mr Nelson will have no shortage of al-ternative venues for funds as well.

While no one doubts that the out-pouring of global compassion can bechannelled for positive projects likeMr Nelson’s, there are concerns none-theless that it would worsen the atti-tude of dependence that is alreadyprevalent in Haitian society.

Said Mr Snyder, the American mis-sionary: “Over the years, people keep

giving food and money but they don’tteach the Haitians how to do things forthemselves.

“Now that you have aid and moneypouring in on such a large scale, I’mnot sure how you are going to reversethat mindset.”

On a broader level, there are alsoquestions about how the hundreds ofmillions of dollars pledged to Haitiwould eventually be administered.

Would the elite exploit the situationfor their own gain? Can the poor andthose without a voice in the politicalsystem get a fair share?

Mr Bazin, the Haitian politicianwho is also a World Bank expert on de-velopment issues, said the countryneeds to convene a major conferencewhere all the key actors can get togeth-er to resolve these issues.

“Unless we Haitians can sit togeth-er and agree on the minimum that hasto be done, to reflect better the socialfabric, the money we are getting fromthe international community is goingto go nowhere,” he added.

“People should be made aware thatwe are going down the drain. We needto get on another path, a better path.”

But who would provide the leader-ship at this crucial hour? So far noneof Haiti’s economic or political elite,safely ensconced in their expensivehouses high above the ruins ofPort-au-Prince, has stepped forward.

There is widespread talk of a reli-gious revival in Haiti following the dev-astating earthquake. Perhaps thechurches will emerge as a new force inHaitian politics.

Half of Haiti’s 9.8 million popula-tion is under 20 years old, so maybe acharismatic young man or woman willrise up and answer the call.

There are many questions in Haititoday, but few, if any, good answers.

It is fitting then that I spent myweek-long trip in a slum named Carre-four, which in French means “cross-roads”.

This long-suffering country has nev-er been at a more critical juncture.chinhon@sph.com.sg

BY CHUA CHIN HONUS BUREAU CHIEF

BRIEF HISTORY� Gained independence in 1804after a successful slave revoltagainst the French.� Oppressed by a long line ofdictators even after independence,while repeated coups destabilisedthe country further.

ECONOMY� The poorest country in theWestern hemisphere.� Economy shrank by 0.2 per centannually during the 1980s and by0.4 per cent a year in the 1990s.� Has one of the highest rich-poorgaps in the world. The richest1 per cent own nearly half thecountry’s wealth.� More than two-thirds of itslabour force do not have jobs.

POLITICS� Suffered 32 coups in its

200-year history.� The military was disbanded in1994 to prevent further coups.� Remains unclear when thecountry will be ready for freshelections.

POPULATION� Grew from five million to ninemillion in recent decades despite ashrinking economy.� Half the population is under theage of 20, and illiterate.� Eight in 10 live in poverty.

HEALTH� More than half of Haitianchildren are malnourished.� General population has limitedor no access to clean drinkingwater.� About 5 per cent of adultsinfected with HIV.Source: World Bank, CIA World Factbook

Haiti has long been a tinderbox of socio-economic andpolitical tension. Some fear the recent earthquake mightignite this explosive mix, and spark open violence andanarchy. A quick glance at some key indicators:

2/3 of labour force do not have a job

A labourer building a simple tomb in a cemetery on the outskirts of Port-au-Prince. A proper burial like this has become something of a luxury inHaiti, given the massive death toll from the earthquake. Many bodies are being dumped into mass graves or remain buried under the rubble.

like a permanent haze. You smellit in the air while walking pastcollapsed buildings and houses,under which dozens – if not hun-dreds – of bodies remain buriedsince the Jan 12 earthquake.

A child at the Notre Dame de la Nativite orphanage in Port-au-Prince last week. Generations ofHaitians will be shaped by how the country responds to this disaster. ST PHOTOS: CHUA CHIN HON

As Haiti tries to pick up the pieces after the devastating quake onJan 12, what lies ahead for the stricken Caribbean nation? A chancefor a historic rebirth or a country approaching its final days?The Straits Times spent a week on the ground in Haiti.

Death loomsover Haiti

world� international

THE STRAITS TIMES MONDAY, FEBRUARY 1 2010 PAGE A14