Post on 21-May-2020
1 ©2014 TCX Inc
Successful Entrepreneurship
for Microsystems
Rakesh Kumar, Ph.D., Life Fellow IEEE
October 23, 2014
rakeshk@eng.ucsd.edu
rakesh@tcxinc.com
858.945.3758
Teaching assistant – Sneha Venkatesh Yelimeli (“Sneha VY”) svyelime@eng.ucsd.edu
Course presented at UCSD CSE 190, Fall Quarter 2014
Day 4-2
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“DOOM and GLOOM”
BAU
1
“EXCITING Times”
Must ADAPT,
INNOVATE,
Be ENTREPRENEURIAL
…
2
after “Let’s Make a Deal”
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Changes are coming at an amazingly RAPID rate!
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On the Metro in Shenzen, China, October 28, 2013
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Design
Process
Package
Board
Product Semiconductors drive the Electronics food chain
Software
Let’s educate the people around us, …about our complex business
Die/Dice Chip
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Design
Process
Package
Board
Product
Software
Let’s educate the people around us, …about our complex business
Electronics Value Chain …Smartphones
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Smartphones – Looking Inside
Soure: iFixit iPhone5
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MANY Levels of Innovation
Software Display Antenna
Touchscreen Processor
Radio/RF Front End Sensors
… …
Soure: iFixit iPhone5
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Some Market Opportunities
History
…and some food for thought!
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The Largest Platform in the History of Mankind
Wireless
Mobile
Computing
Social Media
Mobile Wireless Evolution
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Ref: Qualcomm Analyst Day, November 20,2013
A Qualcomm View….
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Ref: Qualcomm Analyst Day, November 20,2013
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Ref: Qualcomm Analyst Day, November 20,2013
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Ref: Qualcomm Stockholder Meeting, March 4, 2014
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Expanding Application Areas
Ref: Qualcomm Stockholder Meeting, March 4, 2014
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Ref: Qualcomm Stockholder Meeting, March 4, 2014
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The New Paradigm
Mobile Connected Smarter..
The “Internet of Things”
Sensors everywhere… Healthcare
Digital Home Green Energy
…
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The Internet of Things (IoT)
Ref: Qualcomm Stockholder Meeting, March 4, 2014
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Ref: Qualcomm Stockholder Meeting, March 4, 2014
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The Skyworks View…
Ref: Skyworks, Investor Presentation 2014
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http://www.techxx.net/2014/06/12/smart-home-start-up-canary-begins-beta-testing/
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Healthcare applications…
PEDOMETER
BLOOD PRESSURE PULSE
GLUCOMETER
ECG SMART
BANDAGES
SMART PILLS OR INTERNAL SENSORS
WEIGHT BODY COMPOSITION
ENVIRONMENTAL SENSORS
Taking charge …many Sensors
Source: University of Michigan, Feb 2011
Millimeter-Scale Computer for Glaucoma Patients:
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Digital 6th Sense… Augmentation of human ability
KNOW the LOCATION
SENSE the user’s MOTION
SEE the user’s ENVIRONMENT
HEAR the user’s SURROUNDINGS
Ref: Qualcomm Analyst Day, November 20,2013
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Ref: Qualcomm Analyst Day, November 20, 2013
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Good news for Start-ups!
Ref: Qualcomm Analyst Day, November 20, 2013
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Market Drivers
Industry Directions & Challenges
History
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Smartphones drive diverse technologies
User Experience
Low Cost
Battery Life Low Power
Compact
Performance Architecture, SW, Design, …
FC + WB stack
TSV + FC stack TSV system stack
More Moore
More than Moore
MEMS Sensors
Ultrabook PCs also drive diverse technologies
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0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year Source: IC Knowledge, ISSCC, TCX
Tra
nsis
tors
per
Ch
ip, M
Min
imu
m F
eatu
re S
ize, u
m
More Moore
…Transistor complexities have doubled every 2 years
System Co.’s – IBM, Hitachi, Sony, Philips, Unisys,…
Semiconductor Co’s – Fairchild, T.I., Motorola, National, Intel, Toshiba, …
Fabless Co.’s
MF µP PC iNet Cellular
+43% / year
Moore’s Law 2x / 12mos…1965-70 2x / 18mos,,,1970-90’s
2x / 24mos…now
-13% / year
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ECONOMIC challenges are threatening
Increased Cost of Capital, R&D, Design
Sources: imec Sematech intel tsmc umc asml
McKinsey & Company 4
Working D
raft -Last Modified 4/18/2011 11:19:18 A
MP
rinted 10/13/2010 8:56:28 PM
|
Costs associated with node progression have been rising significantly
6,700
4,850
4,000
2,500
1,800
1,450
22nm32nm45nm65nm90nm130nm
+36% p.a.
Fab cost
$ Millions
Process development cost
$ Millions
Chip design cost including fabless
overhead costs*
$ Millions
SOURCE: Press Reports; iSuppli; ICKnowledge; GSA; WorldFabWatch; ITRS
Estimated
cost CAGR
Percent
16 18 17 21 25 25
1,300
900
600
400
310250
22nm32nm45nm65nm90nm130nm
+39% p.a.
150
100
60
34
24
15
22nm32nm45nm65nm90nm130nm
+58% p.a.
* Chip design cost includes product R&D cost (design, verification & photomask) and other fabless costs (overhead, IP licensing, etc.)
>30% ~40% ~60%
30 ©2014 TCX Inc
Top View Bottom View
0.2 (8 mils)
0.650.9 mm
max
0.05 (2 mils) 0.025 (1 mils)
0.075 (3 mils)
a
b
Die
Cu Leadframe
WirebondMold
Compound
Die Attach
Material
Source: ASE
Top View Bottom View
0.2 (8 mils)
0.650.9 mm
max
0.05 (2 mils) 0.025 (1 mils)
0.075 (3 mils)
a
b
Die
Cu Leadframe
WirebondMold
Compound
Die Attach
Material
0.2 (8 mils)
0.650.9 mm
max
0.05 (2 mils) 0.025 (1 mils)
0.075 (3 mils)
a
b
Die
Cu Leadframe
WirebondMold
Compound
Die Attach
Material
Source: ASE
Typical QFN Package
QFN: Qual Flat-pack No-lead
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PNP
PMIC
Spacer
Die #1 Die #2
Stacked Packages
Side-by-Side
Stacked Chips
Source: IMEC
3D Stacked IC’s
Innovative Packaging Examples for Reducing Form Factor
IDM
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HTC Desire Smartphone uses Qualcomm’s MSM 8255
HTC Desire HD
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Source: ASESource: ASE
4-die stack BGA package
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Source: STATS chipPAC
4-die stack
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An example ASIC* Development Cycle
ASIC DESIGN Proto Prod Ramp Hi Volume
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2
Software α
Software β
Software Prod.
Initial Silicon
Initial Silicon Ramp
Initial Product Ramp
Volume Production
Start Design Tapeout ESProd
HW/SW LaunchQS
FPGA
Ref Board
SW
* ASIC: Application Specific Integrated Circuit