Post on 06-Aug-2015
Connections for abrave new world
David Wood@dw2
Principal, Delta WisdomChair, London Futuristslondonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com
The surprising changes ahead
@dw2
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Opportunities
Threats
The set of
possiblefutures
Foresight…
… is hard
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“History does not repeat itself,but it rhymes”
Attributed to
Mark Twain, novellist
http://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/
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Changes in the last 10 years
2005
20155 times faster
5 times cheaper
5 times smaller
Smartphones
Computing+++
1993
Barry Ritkoltz
1993
2013
Barry Ritkoltz
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/05/1993-vs-2013/
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Page 7http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2013/08/26-years-of-growth-shanghai-then-and-now/100569/
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http://edge.org/conversation/the-technium
Kevin KellyCo-founder, Wired
There’s a sense that all the big things have happened –
but relatively speaking, nothing big has happened yet.
We’re just at the beginning of the beginning of all these kind of
changes
The next 20 years are going to make this last 20 years just pale
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BN
CI
NBIC Convergence
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Atoms Genes
Bits Neurons
Bio-Tech
Nano-Tech
Cogno-Tech
ICT
Software
Hardware
BiologyPhysical
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Physical + Virtual
VR -> AR
MOOCs, cryptocurrency…
Deep machine learning
Hybrid intelligence
Mobile -> Wearable -> -> Insideable ->…
Cyborgs
3AI + Human Intelligence
Human + MachineSoftware + Biology
Synthetic biology
Genetic engineering
4
2 1
4 great convergences
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Accelerating technology
Enhancing humans
Extra intelligence
Extra healthExtra longevity
Extra experience
Disturbing humanity
Worse terrorism
Worse surveillance
Worse climate
Unemployment
Extra opportunities Existential risks
Benefits individuals
Threatens society
Positive
feedback
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Enhancing humans
Extra intelligence
Extra healthExtra longevity
Extra experience
Disturbing humanity
Worse terrorism
Worse surveillance
Worse climate
Unemployment
Extra opportunities Existential risks
Benefits individuals
Threatens society
Discussion
Progress will run out of steam?Unlikely!
(Unless society disintegrates)
We could pull the plug if we want(?)Unlikely!
There are too many good aspects of technological advancement
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Enhancing humans
Extra intelligence
Extra healthExtra longevity
Extra experience
Disturbing humanity
Worse terrorism
Worse surveillance
Worse climate
Unemployment
Extra opportunities Existential risks
Benefits individuals
Threatens society
If we allow individuals to enhance themselves
through smart R&D and free enterprise– without government interference –
the world’s social problems will be solved as a by-product
1
Twocontrasting
views possible
1 Techno-libertarian 2 Techno-progressive
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http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/pikettys-inequality-story-in-six-charts
http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/pdf/F0.I.1.pdf
http://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-
2012.pdf
Thomas Piketty
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/theres-been-class-warfare-for-the-last-20-years-and-my-class-has-won/2011/03/03/gIQApaFbAL_blog.html
There’s been class warfare going on for the last 20 years, and my class has won. We’re
the ones that have gotten our tax rates reduced dramatically
Warren Buffett,Investor, “Sage of Omaha”,
2011
Top 400 taxpayers Average income Tax rate
1992 $40M 29%
2010 $227M 21%
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Accelerating technology
Reduces prices
Increases inequality
Positive
feedback
Creates practical abundance
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http://www.businessinsider.com.au/mary-meekers-2014-internet-presentation-2014-5
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http://www.businessinsider.com.au/mary-meekers-2014-internet-presentation-2014-5
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128MB 128GB
http://www.computerworld.com/article/2473980/data-storage-solutions/143723-Storage-now-and-then.html slide 2
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http://www.businessinsider.com.au/mary-meekers-2014-internet-presentation-2014-5
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http://www.businessinsider.com.au/mary-meekers-2014-internet-presentation-2014-5
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http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/internet-trends-v1
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Source: “Exponential
Organizations”
exponentialorgs.com
http://www.slideshare.net/vangeest/exponential-
organizations-h
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Source: “Exponential
Organizations”
exponentialorgs.com
http://www.slideshare.net/vangeest/exponential-
organizations-h
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Source: “Exponential
Organizations”
exponentialorgs.com
http://www.slideshare.net/vangeest/exponential-
organizations-h
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Source: “Exponential
Organizations”
exponentialorgs.com
http://www.slideshare.net/vangeest/exponential-
organizations-h
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Source: “Exponential
Organizations”
exponentialorgs.com
http://www.slideshare.net/vangeest/exponential-
organizations-h
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Accelerating technology
Reduces prices
Increases inequality
Positive
feedback
Creates practical abundance
Enables fabulous new functionality
Initially still at exorbitant pricesMany people will be excluded & alienated
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014.html
“The Pitchforks Are Coming… For Us Plutocrats”– Nick Hanauer
Rich individuals rapidly improve…
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Enhancing humans
Extra intelligence
Extra healthExtra longevity
Extra experience
Disturbing humanity
Worse terrorism
Worse surveillance
Worse climate
Unemployment
Extra opportunities Existential risks
Benefits individuals
Threatens society
If we allow individuals to enhance themselves
through smart R&D and free enterprise– without government interference –
the world’s social problems will be solved as a by-product
Alongside smart R&D and the powerof free enterprise, we also need
wise regulation and smart governance
1
2
and new social systems
Twocontrasting
views possible
1 Techno-libertarian 2 Techno-progressive
Connections for abrave new world
David Wood@dw2
Principal, Delta WisdomChair, London Futuristslondonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com
The surprising changes ahead