Post on 30-Nov-2014
description
Professor Darryn McEvoy
Leader of the Climate Change Adaptation Program, Global Cities Institute, RMIT University
Deputy Director, Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation (VCCCAR)
Solutions and future directions: YVW, August 2011
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
Outline of presentation1. Climate change: the great contemporary dilemma
2. Clarifying climate change agendas
3. What should we be adapting to?
4. Research activity in Victoria
5. Challenges and opportunities facing business and industry
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
Climate change: the great contemporary dilemma
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
Current day impacts
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
Clarifying climate change agendas
Climate science / impacts
Global warming / mitigation
Climate change / adaptation / disaster risk reduction
Mitigation: ‘avoiding the unmanageable’
Adaptation: ‘managing the unavoidable’
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
What should we be adapting to?Low emissions scenario
2070High emissions scenario
2070Temperature + 0.9 ºC to + 2.0 ºC + 1.8 ºC to + 3.8 ºC
Number of days over 35 ºC: Melbourne (current 9)
14 20
Number of days over 35 ºC: Mildura
(current 32)
45 59
Rainfall + 2% to - 14% + 3% to - 25%
Drought Likely increase between 10% and 80%
Extreme events
Sea level rise Likely rise between 0.18m to 0.59m by 2095, with a possible much greater rise
Extremes Likely to be more extreme rain events, and more extreme bushfire events
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
Research activity: RMIT• Impact of the 2009 heatwave on critical urban infrastructure
• Framing climate change adaptation – guidance for local authorities / capacity building (navigator, economics, social narratives)
• Emergency management (bushfires) and use of IT simulation to improve decision-making
• Climate resilient seaports
• Climate change and sustainable urban development in the Asia-Pacific region
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
Research activity: Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research (VCCCAR)
2010 2011
Scenarios Responding to the urban heat island
Resilient urban systems Enhancing Water Infrastructure Provision with Climate Change Uncertainty
Integrated land management Learning from Indigenous and traditional community knowledge
Framing adaptation Design-led decision support for regional climate adaptation
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
‘Think tank’ activity: VCCCAR
• Adapting aspirations and expectations on the coastal suburban and regional fringe
• Gippsland climate change and adaptation study
• Regional Business Development in a Variable and Changing Climate: Strategies for Central Victoria
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
Challenges• Means and variability in
climate will be different in the future, and spatially / regionally differentiated
• How to cope, and make decisions, under conditions of uncertainty
• Future climate change is only one source of uncertainty
• Multiple hazards and joint probability events
• Cascading effects
• Importance of socio-economic drivers (climate adaptation / climate sensitive / non climate)
Flooding in Victoria 2011: Herald Sun
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
Opportunities• Tools for helping to cope with
uncertainty: use of scenarios, risk assessment, flexible management approaches
• Australia long experience of dealing with variable climate
• A chance to capitalise on past success and encourage further innovation
• Emerging markets: new technologies and behaviour change (water tanks etc)
• Adaptation as an iterative learning process, which requires new relationships and ways of working
RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute
More informed decision-making
Thanks for your attention
Darryn.mcevoy@rmit.edu.au