Post on 25-Jul-2020
© 2017 Ethernet Alliancewww.ethernetalliance.org
November1,2017
AUTOMOTIVECONNECTIVITY:IMPACTONTHEGLOBALNETWORKOFTOMORROW
SteveCarlson,HighSpeedDesign,Inc.JohnD’Ambrosia,Futurewei
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
RegardingtheViewsExpressed
Steve’sIndustryInvolvement– Consultant,HighSpeedDesign,Inc.– ConsultingMember,EthernetAlliance– Chair,IEEEP802.3chMulti-GigabitAutomotiveEthernetPHYTaskForce– ExecutiveSecretary,IEEE802.3WorkingGroup
TheviewsIamexpressingonIEEEstandardsandrelatedproductsshouldNOTbeconsideredtheposition,explanation,orinterpretationoftheEthernetAlliance.
PerIEEE-SAStandardsBoardBylaws,Dec2016“Atlectures,symposia,seminars,oreducationalcourses,anindividualpresentinginformationonIEEEstandardsshallmakeitclearthathisorherviewsshouldbeconsideredthepersonalviewsofthatindividualratherthantheformalpositionofIEEE.”
2
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
The“ExponentialFactor”
“Thegreatestshortcomingofthehumanraceisourinabilitytounderstandtheexponentialfunction.”
AlbertBartlett– AmericanScholar
3www.ethernetalliance.org
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
Introduction• Bandwidthgrowthisdrivenby– Numberofusers– Accessrates– Services/Applicationsoffered
• ConnectedCarsrepresentanew“user”or“endstation”• Asautomotiveapplications(e.g.cloudservices,mapping,telemetry,anddataanalytics)increase,whatwillbetheimpactonthetrafficoftomorrow’snetworks?
• AnnualglobalIPtrafficsurpassedthezettabyte(ZB;1000exabytes[EB])thresholdin2016,andwillreach2.3ZBby2020.– GlobalIPtrafficwillreach1.1ZBperyearor88.7EB(onebilliongigabytes[GB])permonthin2016
– By2020,globalIPtrafficwillreach2.3ZBperyear,or194EBpermonth
4
© 2017 Ethernet Alliancewww.ethernetalliance.org
November1,2017
WHATISTHE“GLOBALNETWORK?”
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
TheStartofEthernet
6
Source:http://www.ieee802.org/3/ethernet_diag.html
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
7
Source:https://ethernetalliance.org/roadmap/
www.ethernetalliance.org
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
"Thosewhodon'tknowhistoryaredestinedtorepeatit."
EdmundBurke(1729-1797)
8www.ethernetalliance.org
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
Ethernet’s History of Rates
9www.ethernetalliance.org
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
Source:DonnLeePresentationOFC2008
OFC/NFOEC2008:FacebookLivingintheVideoWorld
10
TOOTHBRUSHGRAPH
VideoEnabled
This was a huge amount of traffic(multiple web services, millions of users)
10
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
Someperspective:TheViewAfter10GigabitEthernet
Source:http://www.ieee802.org/3/hssg/public/nov07/HSSG_Tutorial_1107.zip
Thebeginning....
11
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
TheIEEE802.3EthernetBandwidthAssessment
Trend#1
BandwidthGrowth
Trend#2
DiversityGrowth
Note:autoswerenot
inthisforecast!Source:www.ieee802.org/3/ad_hoc/bwa/BWA_Report.pdf
12
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
“Disruptions”2007- 2014
13www.ethernetalliance.org
Source:http://www.ieee802.org/3/400GSG/public/mar13/CFI_01_0313.pdf
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
TheWorldDuringtheDevelopmentof400GbE
• ManyofthesesametrendswillbeexperiencedbytheConnectedCar
• Historywillrepeatitself
14
Source:http://www.ieee802.org/3/400GSG/public/mar13/CFI_01_0313.pdf
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
MobileNetworksBandwidthTrends- Global
15
Source:http://www.cisco.com/c/dam/m/en_us/solutions/service-provider/vni-forecast-widget/forecast-widget/advanced.html
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
MobileNetworksBandwidthTrends- China
16
Source:http://www.cisco.com/c/dam/m/en_us/solutions/service-provider/vni-forecast-widget/forecast-widget/advanced.html
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
TheAutomobile– theNextEndStation
Metcalfe’sLaw:Thevalueofatelecommunicationsnetworkisproportionaltothesquareofthenumberofconnectedusersofthesystem
-Dr.RobertMetcalfe,inventorofEthernet
17www.ethernetalliance.org
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
ConnectedCars– DrivingBandwidthonMobileNetworks
2019- 117MillionVehiclestobeproduced**CFIMulti-GigAutomotiveEthernetPHY,http://www.ieee802.org/3/cfi/1116_1/CFI_01_1116.pdf.
2011ForecastforGlobalWirelessTrafficGeneratedbyEmbeddedMobilitybyApplication
Source- GSMA,ConnectingCars:TheTechnologyRoadmap,February2013,https://www.gsma.com/iot/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/GSMA_mAutomotive_TechnologyRoadmap_v2.pdf
AutomotiveEthernet
Car2CarConnection
Car2Cloud
18
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
2019- 117MillionVehiclestobeproduced**CFIMulti-GigAutomotiveEthernetPHY,http://www.ieee802.org/3/cfi/1116_1/CFI_01_1116.pdf.
AutomotiveEthernet
Car2CarConnection
Car2Cloud
AutonomousDriving
Infotainment 5G
Regulatory
19
ConnectedCars– DrivingBandwidthonMobileNetworks
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
2019- 117MillionVehiclestobeproduced**CFIMulti-GigAutomotiveEthernetPHY,http://www.ieee802.org/3/cfi/1116_1/CFI_01_1116.pdf.
AutomotiveEthernet
Car2CarConnection
Car2Cloud
WhatElse?Willtherebeenoughbandwidthintheglobalnetwork?
20
ConnectedCars– DrivingBandwidthonMobileNetworks
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
Enablingbandwidth
Enablesapplications
Drivesbandwidth
TheStoryRemainstheSame….
TheConnectedCaristheNextChapter
21
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
ASimpleEquationtoRemember
22
#ofUsersIncreasedaccessrates&typesofconnections
Applicationsx x
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
www.ethernetalliance.org
Summary• Globalbandwidthusage– growingexponentially
• Socialmedia,smartphones,andvideoalldisruptedtheglobalnetwork
• Continuousnewdriverstobandwidthgrowth
• Weneedtounderstandhowautomobileswilladdtothisbandwidthusagetoinsurethattheglobalnetworkwillsupporttheneeds
• Weneedtheautomotiveindustrytohelpusunderstandhowtosupportthebandwidthneeds---helpushelpyou!
23
© 2017 Ethernet Alliance
If you have any questions or comments, please email admin@ethernetalliance.org
Visit the Ethernet Alliance on Facebook
Ethernet Alliance: visit www.ethernetalliance.orgJoin the Ethernet Alliance LinkedIn groupFollow @EthernetAllianc on Twitter
JohnD’Ambrosia– jdambrosia@ieee.orgSteveCarlson- scarlson@ieee.org
24www.ethernetalliance.org
Thankyou!