Post on 24-Sep-2020
CUNA Economic Update
September 2018
Mike Schenk
Chief Economist
CUNA Economic Update is sponsored by
1.27%
1.60%1.38%
0.66%
1.47%
2.10%
2.50%
3.10%
3.50%
4.10% 4.10%4.30%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Yr
6/18
U.S. CU Membership Growth(Source: NCUA & CUNA)
6.5% 6.7%
1.2%
-1.2%
1.2%
4.8%
7.3%
10.4% 10.5% 10.6%10.0%
9.6%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Yr
6/18
U.S. CU Loan Growth(Source: NCUA and CUNA)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Consumer Confidence: An 18-Year HighSource: Conference Board
1.05
2.09 2.152.30
3.01
2.71
2.342.19
2.33
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 8/18
Annual Increases in Non-Farm EmploymentMillions of Employees. Source: BLS
5.0
10.0
3.9
8.8
17.1
7.4
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Trends in US Unemployment Rates (%)(Source: BLS and CUNA)
Recession
Unemployment Rate
U-6 Unemployment Rate
2,902
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-14
Oc
t-1
4
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-15
Oc
t-1
5
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-16
Oc
t-1
6
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-17
Oc
t-1
7
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-18
A Soaring Stock Market…(S&P 500 Month-End)
Source: S&P.
181.6
136.5
201.4
0
50
100
150
200
250
A Soaring Housing Market…(S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Index)
Source: S&P
+6.4% over past year
+11% higher than pre-recession
Significant Asset Price Appreciation!
Record HH Debt…But Low Relative to Income!
$14,465$15,255
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
Jan-80 Jan-86 Jan-92 Jan-98 Jan-04 Jan-10 Jan-16
Household DebtBillions of Dollars. Source: Federal Reserve
124
96
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
Ja
n-8
0
Ja
n-8
2
Ja
n-8
4
Ja
n-8
6
Ja
n-8
8
Ja
n-9
0
Ja
n-9
2
Ja
n-9
4
Ja
n-9
6
Ja
n-9
8
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
8
Ja
n-1
0
Ja
n-1
2
Ja
n-1
4
Ja
n-1
6
Household Debt as a Percent of
Disposable IncomeSource: Federal Reserve
683
400.0
450.0
500.0
550.0
600.0
650.0
700.0
J-60 J-62 J-64 J-66 J-68 J-70 J-72 J-74 J-76 J-78 J-80 J-82 J-84 J-86 J-88 J-90 J-92 J-94 J-96 J-98 J-00 J-02 J-04 J-06 J-08 J-10 J-12 J-14 J-16 J-18
Household Net Worth as a Percent of Disposable IncomeSource: Federal Reserve
CU Loan Growth: Slowing But Healthy Gains Overall(Source: NCUA and CUNA)
6.5% 6.7%
1.2%
-1.2%
1.2%
4.8%
7.3%
10.4% 10.5% 10.6%10.0% 9.6%
9.0%
7.0%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Yr 6/18 '18E '19E
17
,81
1
17
,47
2
17
,13
8
16
,96
7
17
,29
5
17
,44
5
17
,05
0
16
,46
2
13
,49
3
10
,60
1
11
,77
2
13
,04
9
14
,78
1
15
,88
2
16
,85
8
17
,84
6
17
,86
6
17
,58
5
17
,35
7
17
,20
0
17
,06
3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Forc
2019Forc
2020Forc
Car and Light Truck SalesSource: IHS Markit. Thousands of Units.
$1
,75
5
$1
,84
5
$1
,26
1 $1
,63
0
$1
,89
1
$1
,71
0
$1
,60
6
$1
,59
2
$1
,63
1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Forc 2019 Forc 2020 Forc
First Mortgage OriginationsSource: Mortgage Bankers Association. Billions.
Small Businesses Confidence Sets a 45-Year RecordNational Federation of Independent Businesses Small Business Optimism Index
122346
110952
163277
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$M
illio
ns
Proposed Auto TariffsA Big Negative Impact on CU New Car Lending is Possible
CU New Car Loans
CU New Car Loans Tariff Scenario (CUNA est. new car loan size)
CU New Car Loans Tariff Scenario (Fed. Reserve est. new car loan size)
CU New Car Loans No Tariff Scenario
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