Post on 14-Apr-2017
Using climate forecasts and crop modeling to transform data into value for farmers
Guillermo A. Baigorria gbaigorria@unl.edu
School of Natural Resources – and – Dpt. of Agronomy & Horticulture
International Consortium for Categorical Climate Forecast Applications
CropClimate.org
Agricultural decisions
We can control and improve:
• Soils (fertilization, tillage/no-tillage, conservation, etc.)
• Land allocation (where to crop what)
• Genetics (variety, crop density, etc.)
• Competition (weeds, insects, etc.)
CropClimate.org
Agricultural decisions
We can control and improve:
• Soils (fertilization, tillage/no-tillage, conservation, etc.)
• Land allocation (where to crop what)
• Genetics (variety, crop density, etc.)
• Competition (weeds, insects, etc.)
We can not control:
Climate Main cause for interannual variability
CropClimate.org
Agricultural decisions
We can not control:
But we can forecast it
and used it for decision making
Climate
Type of decisions
Tactical decisions: When to plant, when to irrigate, when to fertilize, etc.
Strategic decisions: Land allocation for different crops, selection of crop
variety, insurance (type and level), etc.
Long term decisions: Sell/purchase land, Invest on an irrigation system,
machinery, etc.
CropClimate.org
Type of decisions
Tactical decisions: When to plant, when to irrigate, when to fertilize, etc.
Strategic decisions: Land allocation for different crops, selection of crop
variety, insurance (type and level), etc.
Long term decisions: Sell/purchase land, Invest on an irrigation system,
machinery, etc.
CropClimate.org
Type of decisions
Tactical decisions: When to plant, when to irrigate, when to fertilize, etc.
Strategic decisions: Land allocation for different crops, selection of crop
variety, insurance (type and level), etc.
Long term decisions: Sell/purchase land, Invest on an irrigation system,
machinery, etc.
CropClimate.org
Risk Taker vs Risk Averse
CropClimate.org
CropClimate is a non-funded platform that
translates categorical seasonal climate information
into crop management decisions
to
take advantage and reduce impacts of climate on agriculture
CropClimate.org
CropClimate will support Users in making decisions such as:
- Selecting cultivar
- Selecting planting date
- Selecting plant density
- Selecting crop insurance
and it will provide Users with information about
- Nationwide county level crop yield forecasts (prices?)
- Climate risk forecasts
Categorical Seasonal Climate monitoring & forecasts (teleconnection indices)
Categorical Discrete (e.g. El Niño, Neutral, La Niña)
Seasonal Climate
1 to 9 months in advance
CropClimate.org
Teleconnection indices
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño La Niña
CropClimate.org
Teleconnection indices
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
El Niño Neutral La Niña
CropClimate.org
Worldwide effects of ENSO
El Niño La Niña
CropClimate.org
CropClimate.org
Worldwide effects of ENSO
Source: https://www2.ucar.edu/
Teleconnections Map
CropClimate.org
Yield timeseries
CropClimate.org
Technology de-trended yield timeseries
CropClimate.org
So we know the effects, now
What can we do?
CropClimate.org
Using climate forecasts and crop modeling to transform data into value for farmers
Guillermo A. Baigorria gbaigorria@unl.edu
School of Natural Resources – and – Dpt. of Agronomy & Horticulture
International Consortium for Categorical Climate Forecast Applications
• Because climate is non-stationary, global and regional climate driver trends are no longer important
Source: The University of Alabama in Huntsville