County Fiscal Outlook February 2, 2010. Outline Economic Environment Revenue Outlook Budget...

County Fiscal Outlook

February 2, 2010

Outline

• Economic Environment

• Revenue Outlook

• Budget Strategies FY 2010

• Budget Challenges

• Summary

Outline

• Revenue Outlook

• Summary

Economic Environment

• October 13 Dr. Zingale

• December 15 Scott Skraban

• January 5 Dr. Snaith

• January 25 Dr. Baker

Dr. Snaith

Presentations

• Florida’s unemployment

rate reached 11.8% in

December

• Including those that are

underemployed

unemployment rate

rises to 19.5%

Unemployment Rates

0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%

8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Orange County Florida US

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

$143,500

$319,968

$159,716

Orange County Average Residential Sale Prices

Statewide Foreclosures 302,161

Orange County Foreclosure Filings

2006 2007 2008 2009

11,351

26,131

*31,000

* Projected

2006 2007 2008 2009

Orange County Housing Starts

10,000

12,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Single-Family Multi-Family

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

10,863

Outline

• Revenue Outlook

• Summary

• Tourist Development Tax • Building Permits• Utility Connection Fees

Enterprise Revenues

Revenue Outlook

$163 $168

$142 $138

Millio

2007 2008 2009 2010Budget

Revenue Outlook

Tourist Development Tax

-15.4%3.2%25.5% -3.0%

$20 $19

Millio

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Budget

Revenue Outlook

Building Permit Revenue

-2.5% -29.1% -40.8% -13.8%

$45 $44

Millio

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Budget

Revenue Outlook

Utility Connection Fees

-2.1% -39.4% -64.4% Flat

• Property Taxes

• Sales Tax

• Public Service Tax

• Impact Fees

• Recording Fees

Revenue Outlook

NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP OCT

Revenue Outlook

2010 Property AppraiserAssessment Date

TaxableValueEstimate

PreliminaryTaxableValue

FinalTaxableValue

StateTaxableValueEstimate

Revenue Outlook 2011 and Beyond• Property Tax Outlook–FY 2011 – (10%)

• Sales Tax –FY 2011 - (2.0%)

Revenue Outlook

• Countywide Property Tax– Millage rate 4.4347 down from 5.1639 in FY 2007

• Sheriff MSTU– Millage rate 1.8043 down from 2.1234 in FY 2007

• Fire MSTU– Millage rate 2.2437 down from 2.5862 in FY 2007

• Sales Tax• PST • State Revenue Sharing

$1,000

$1,200

2007 2008 2009 2010

Countywide Tax

Sheriff MSTU

Fire MSTU

Sales Tax

State SharedRevenue

$959 $959 $942

$474 $476 $475 $428

$107 $107 $105$94

$130 $133 $131$116

$128 $126 $116 $104

$89 $89 $88 $87

Major Revenue Sources

Revenue Outlook

$1,000

$1,200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Countywide Tax

Sheriff MSTU

Fire MSTU

Sales Tax

State SharedRevenue

$959 $959 $942

$474 $476 $475 $428

$107 $107 $105$94

$130 $133 $131$116

$128 $126 $116 $104

$89 $89 $88 $87

($69)-10%

Revenue Outlook

$1,000

$1,200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Countywide Tax

Sheriff MSTU

Fire MSTU

Sales Tax

State SharedRevenue

$959 $959 $942

$474 $476 $475 $428

$107 $107 $105$94

$130 $133 $131$116

$128 $126 $116 $104

$89 $89 $88 $87

Revenue Outlook

Three MainProperty TaxLevies

Countywide

SheriffFire

Revenue Outlook

• Countywide Property Tax$385M

• Sheriff MSTU $ 84M

• Fire MSTU$105M

TOTAL$574M

Three Major Property Taxes

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Orange County Property Tax Estimates

Revenue Outlook

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Revenue Outlook

$574 $579$617

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$711 $705

Revenue Outlook

0.8% 6.7% 6.6% 7.1%

$574 $579$617

2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

$711 $705

Revenue Outlook

0.8% 6.7% 6.6% 7.1%

Outline

• Revenue Outlook

• Summary

$1,000

$1,200

2007 2008 2009 2010

Countywide Tax

Sheriff MSTU

Fire MSTU

Sales Tax

State SharedRevenue

$959 $959 $942

$474 $476 $475 $428

$107 $107 $105$94

$130 $133 $131$116

$128 $126 $116 $104

$89 $89 $88 $87

Budget Strategies FY 2010

• Reduced Operating Budgets

• Used Prior Year Cash Savings

• Froze CIP Projects

• Adjusted Reserves

• Public Safety -3.2%

• Outside Agencies -3.4%

• General Government -12.1%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

General County Employees (Excludes: Const. Offices, Enterprise Operations, and Public Safety)

Outline

• Revenue Outlook

• Summary

Cost cutting measures to conserve cashPast investments in infrastructureReduction in Risk Management costsHealthy reserves

Budget Challenges

Good News

Bad News

Rising unemployment & foreclosuresEconomic uncertaintyDeclining revenuesState budget deficit/unfunded mandatesIncreasing service needs

Public Safety• Sheriff

– Largest budget in county– Budget consists primarily of personnel costs and

• Corrections– Budget highly dependent on inmate population– Medical care costs– Legislative impacts

• Fire Rescue– New stations and equipment replacement on

hold– Various programs on hold– Trend not sustainable

Budget Challenges

Health Services and Family Services• PCAN

– Increases in healthcare costs and expensive secondary care creates financial challenges

– Restructure program to control costs

• Medicaid– Medicaid enrollment is increasing significantly– Healthcare reform proposals advocate extending

Medicaid to more individuals– Changes in State law may further exacerbate

budget shortfall

• Family Services Programs– Increasing demand for mental health and

homeless issues– Funding for safety net programs

Budget Challenges

• Administrative Services– Escalating maintenance costs – Fuel price volatility– Lease obligations

• Community & Environmental Services– Operating and maintaining current parks– Limited funding for Total Maximum Daily

Load (TMDL)/water quality

• Public Works– Providing adequate O&M funding continues

to be a challenge– Level of services have been reduced– CIP challenges

Admin. Services, C & E Services, Public Works

• LYNX– Current funding $35 million– Impact of 7% reduction

• Healthcare– $96 million program covering 9,000

employees and 19,000 members

– Medical trend is 9% increase

– Future funding challenges

• Employee Benefits– Structural changes

Budget Challenges

LYNX and Employee Benefits

Outline

• Revenue Outlook

• Summary

General Government

Public Safety$482M

Outside Agencies $142M

FY 2010 Tax Based Operating Budget

Public Safety$482M

Public Safety2010 Tax Based Operating Budget

• Sheriff $184M

• Fire Rescue 145 • Corrections 146• Other 7TOTAL $482M

FY 2010

• Administrative Services $46M• Family Services 45• Health Services 43• Parks & Recreation 30• Comm. & Environ. Services 20• Growth Management 10• Other 60

TOTAL $254M

General Government

FY 2010

General Government2010 Tax Based Operating Budget

• Constitutional Officers $ 53M• LYNX 35• Other 54 (CRAs, Outside Agencies, Courts, CRP)

TOTAL $142M

Outside Agencies2010 Tax Based Operating Budget

FY 2010

General Government

Public Safety$482M

Tax Based Operating Budget

General Government

Public Safety$482M

Tax Based Operating Budget

$70M Reduction

• Savings from FY 2009 Budget

• CIP Adjustments

• Operating Budget Cuts

• Savings from FY 2009 Budget $15M

• CIP Adjustments

• Commuter Rail $35M

• Corrections $10M

Capital Improvements Program

• Commuter Rail $35M

• Corrections $10M

Capital Improvements Program

$30M Cash Funding

$15M Finance

• CIP Adjustments $15M

• Operating Budget Cuts $40M

• 7% budget cuts for BCC & Constitutional Offices– Cut programs

– Reduce level of service

– Delete vacant positions

– Possible layoffs

Operating Budget Cuts

• Direct impact on employees– Wage freeze

– Mandatory 5 day furloughs

– Changes in health care benefits & co-pays

– Early retirement incentives– Appointed BCC employees will lose 4 days of

administrative leave

• Outside agencies will have their budget cut by 7%

• Operating Budget Cuts $40M

$70 Million

Outline

• Revenue Outlook

• Summary

• Economic uncertainty

• Decreasing revenues

• No new taxes

• Balance budget

– Savings

– CIP adjustments

– 7% decrease in operating budgets

Summary

• Public Safety– Sheriff’s Office– Corrections– Fire Rescue

Summary – Next Steps

February 2, 2010

• Health Services and Family Services– PCAN, Medicaid– Family Services Programs

• Community & Environmental Services, Public Works– Parks, TMDL– Public Works

February 16, 2010

• LYNX

• Administrative Services– Facilities, Fleet, Leases

• Employee Health Care and Benefits

Summary – Next Steps

February 23, 2010

County Fiscal Outlook

February 2, 2010

County Fiscal Outlook February 2, 2010. Outline Economic Environment Revenue Outlook Budget...

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