Post on 24-Feb-2020
Countering Violent Extremism and Radical Rhetoric
Tamar Mitts
Assistant ProfessorSchool of International and Public Affairs
Data Science InstituteColumbia University
February 1, 2019
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
A ‘Soft’ Approach to Combat Terrorism
Traditionally, CT has focused on repression of militant groups
Arrests, violent interrogations, air strikes of militant training camps,targeted assassinations...
In recent years, growing view that CT alone is insufficient to combatterrorism
Backlash can result in increased level of violence
Growing channels of recruitment via the Internet and social media
Rapid global investment in ‘soft’ measures to counter terrorism,commonly referred to as countering violent extremism, or CVE
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
What is CVE?
“Proactive actions to counter efforts by extremists to recruit,radicalize, and mobilize followers to violence.”
(Department of Homeland Security CVE Task Force)
Page 7 GAO-17-300 Countering Violent Extremism
In October 2016, the federal government defined the U.S. approach to countering violent extremism as proactive actions to counter efforts by extremists to recruit, radicalize, and mobilize followers to violence. The three parts of the U.S. approach to CVE efforts are: (1) empowering communities and civil society; (2) messaging and counter–messaging; and (3) addressing causes and driving factors. CVE activities are different from traditional counterterrorism efforts, such as collecting intelligence, gathering evidence, making arrests, and responding to incidents, in that they generally focus on preventing an individual from finding or acting out on a motive for committing a crime, as shown in figure 3. In February 2015, the White House released a fact sheet stating that CVE encompasses the preventative aspects of counterterrorism as well as interventions to undermine the attraction of violent extremist movements and ideologies that seek to promote violence.
Figure 3: Countering Violent Extremism is Different from Counterterrorism
According to the national strategy, CVE actions intend to address the conditions and reduce the factors that most likely contribute to recruitment and radicalization by violent extremists. CVE efforts, as defined by the White House, are not to include gathering intelligence or performing investigations for the purpose of criminal prosecution. CVE efforts aim to address the root causes of violent extremism through community engagement, including:
The U.S. Approach to Countering Domestic Violent Extremism
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
How Does CVE Relate to CT?
Measure
Repressive(‘Hard’)
Rebel group
Proactive
Targeted killings,air strikes
Defensive
Hardening targets,border security
Population
Blockades,home demolitions,collateral damage
Non-repressive(‘Soft’)
Rebel group
Negotiations,concessions
Population
CVE
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Dramatic Increase in National Action Plans to CounterViolent Extremism
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Extremist groups use social media extensively
Groups using online platforms range from jihadists to whitenationalists to neo-Nazi supporters
Many use the Internet and social media to
Interact with other supporters
Consume and spread violent, extremist content
Organize violent activity
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Example #1: Pittsburgh synagogue shooter on Gab,posting before his attack
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Example #2: ISIS activist on Twitter, posting to followersfrom Syria
Figure S15: Example of ISIS accounts
1/14/16, 9:49 AMGreenBirdDabiq (@greenbirddabiq2) | Twitter
Page 1 of 8https://twitter.com/greenbirddabiq2
GreenBirdDabiq@greenbirddabiq2
Muhajirah living for the sake of Allah |Sham | Raqqa | DM for Kik/Surepot |Back from Suspension
Blessed land of Khilafah
7 Photos and videos
Tweet to GreenBirdDabiq
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 30 Dec 2015"@GuyNamedSalmaan: Brothers, have you done anything to deserve a wife today?". LOL. I think the answer is usually " no."
1
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 30 Dec 2015"It's OK. It was done by Assad."
2 2
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 30 Dec 2015Why is it that the Nusayri regime gets a free pass to commit war crimes? Are Assad's barrel bombs not real?
Tweets Tweets & replies Photos & videosGreenBirdDabiq@greenbirddabiq2
TWEETS
36FOLLOWING
75FOLLOWERS
497LIKES
6 Follow
Home Moments Notifications Messages Search Twitter
47
Figure S16: Example of a Western fighter tweeting from Syria
1/14/16, 9:49 AMGreenBirdDabiq (@greenbirddabiq2) | Twitter
Page 1 of 8https://twitter.com/greenbirddabiq2
GreenBirdDabiq@greenbirddabiq2
Muhajirah living for the sake of Allah |Sham | Raqqa | DM for Kik/Surepot |Back from Suspension
Blessed land of Khilafah
7 Photos and videos
Tweet to GreenBirdDabiq
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 30 Dec 2015"@GuyNamedSalmaan: Brothers, have you done anything to deserve a wife today?". LOL. I think the answer is usually " no."
1
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 30 Dec 2015"It's OK. It was done by Assad."
2 2
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 30 Dec 2015Why is it that the Nusayri regime gets a free pass to commit war crimes? Are Assad's barrel bombs not real?
Tweets Tweets & replies Photos & videosGreenBirdDabiq@greenbirddabiq2
TWEETS
36FOLLOWING
75FOLLOWERS
497LIKES
6 Follow
Home Moments Notifications Messages Search Twitter
1/14/16, 9:49 AMGreenBirdDabiq (@greenbirddabiq2) | Twitter
Page 3 of 8https://twitter.com/greenbirddabiq2
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 23 Dec 2015
A few stray cats I have been feeding lately. #RaqqaCats
8
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 23 Dec 2015As Muslims we love the prophet Isa but know that he was not the son of God.
5 1
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 22 Dec 2015
The kuffar divided Muslims for too long. Now that we are rallying to one banner they are frightened.
1/14/16, 9:49 AMGreenBirdDabiq (@greenbirddabiq2) | Twitter
Page 4 of 8https://twitter.com/greenbirddabiq2
are frightened. 5 3
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 22 Dec 2015Delicious takeout last night--stuffed aubergine :). #NotMissingWesternFastFoodTrash
1
GreenBirdDabiq Retweeted@Alfakhiri !"18 · +*س) 'لفاخ Dec 2014Emirates hotel put a Christmas tree worth $11 million in Abu Dhabi #UAE meanwhile Syria's children starve.
126 36
GreenBirdDabiq RetweetedEmergency Kittens @EmrgencyKittens · 14 Dec 2015me
1/14/16, 9:49 AMGreenBirdDabiq (@greenbirddabiq2) | Twitter
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2.3K 3.9K
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 15 Dec 2015
Beautiful sunrise outside of Raqqa.
8 10
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 15 Dec 2015The Saudi apostate coalition really has me laughing.
3
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 12 Dec 2015
I've said it once and I'll say it again. There are no Muslim democratic countries. Elections are haram and a usurpation of Allah's rule.
8 9
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 4 Dec 2015Remember to keep all Muslims prisoners in your duas. Now more than ever.
2 3
GreenBirdDabiq followed َ, Abu Maryam, Abu_Adamm#7 and 49 others
1/14/16, 9:49 AMGreenBirdDabiq (@greenbirddabiq2) | Twitter
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2.3K 3.9K
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 15 Dec 2015
Beautiful sunrise outside of Raqqa.
8 10
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 15 Dec 2015The Saudi apostate coalition really has me laughing.
3
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 12 Dec 2015
I've said it once and I'll say it again. There are no Muslim democratic countries. Elections are haram and a usurpation of Allah's rule.
8 9
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 4 Dec 2015Remember to keep all Muslims prisoners in your duas. Now more than ever.
2 3
GreenBirdDabiq followed َ, Abu Maryam, Abu_Adamm#7 and 49 others
1/14/16, 9:49 AMGreenBirdDabiq (@greenbirddabiq2) | Twitter
Page 6 of 8https://twitter.com/greenbirddabiq2
@Maklclkkc
Follow
@Abu__Marryaam
And say: Truth has (now) arrived, andFalsehood perished: for Falsehood is (byits nature) bound to perish. [Quran17:81]
FollowAbu Maryam
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 2 Dec 2015Seriously, the UK is sending eight planes after us?!?! I am literally dying with laughter. #UKFailedEmpire
1
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 2 Dec 2015
If there is 1 thing I'm not afraid of, its another failed empire trying to destroy our Khilafah #RemainingExpanding
7 7
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 1 Dec 2015Why is it that twitter accounts of crusaders and war-mongers are never suspended? Its enough to make me want to quit twitter entirely.
1
GreenBirdDabiq @greenbirddabiq2 · 29 Nov 2015"@AbiSalaahudeen: Life is temporary but jannah is forever" Amin
4
GreenBirdDabiq RetweetedAllah's Witness @Amriki_W8 · 25 Nov 2015Forget about your "moderate" title, strive for the cause of Allah from daybreak till sunset
2
GreenBirdDabiq Retweeted
Note: This account has already been suspended as of February 2016.
48
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Many CVE Initiatives in the Tech Industry (Focus on ISIS)
2015: YouTube begins to redirect searches for ISIS content towardcounter-ISIS videos
2016: Twitter steps up efforts to suspend ISIS accounts
2017: Facebook announces the use of AI to help identifying terroristpropaganda
2017: Major tech companies collaborate to remove extremist contentfrom their platforms
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
The Big Question: Do All These Efforts Work?
We do not know.
Currently, very little rigorous evaluation of CVE programs
Empirical challenge: obtain measurable evidence of a ‘decrease’ insupport for violent ideologies
The absence of radical sympathies 6= decline in extremism
Innovations in social media research can shed light on this question
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Case Study: Countering Violent Extremism in the UnitedStates
“Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism in theUnited States” launched by the Obama administration in 2011
Goal: strengthen the government’s engagement with localcommunities whose members may be targeted by violent groups
Increasing local communities’ understanding of extremism with training
Enhancing collaboration between communities and law enforcement
Building networks between public and private groups to counterextremism
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
DHS Community Engagement Program
The Office of Civil Rights and Civil Liberties (CRCL) in theDepartment of Homeland Security has been at the forefront of theseefforts in recent years
Periodic meetings between law enforcement and members of variousAmerican Arab, Muslim, South Asian, and Middle Easterncommunities
Working assumption among policymakers:
Community members with personal connections to radicalizingindividuals can detect early signs of extremism
Devise interventions to prevent violent extremism
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Community Roundtables in Atlanta, GA and Phoenix, AZ
Photo credit: Islamic Speakers Bureau, Atlanta, Islamic Community Center of Phoenix.
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Number of Community Engagement Events by Month
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Did These Efforts Impact the Online Behavior of ISISSympathizers in the United States?
Draw on a large dataset of Islamic State sympathizers on Twitter
Over 47K accounts in the United States
Tweeting content sympathizing with ISIS, discussing life in ISISterritories or foreign fighters, or tweets relating to the Syrian civil war
Match with information on dozens of community engagement eventsheld by the Department of Homeland Security from 2014-2016
Examine whether community engagement events shaped subsequentpro-ISIS rhetoric in the areas where they are held
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
ISIS Sympathizers and DHS Community EngagementActivities in the United States
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Community Engagement and Pro-ISIS Rhetoric
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Diff-in-Diff Model
Yi ,j ,k = β1Pi ,j ,k + β2Tj ,k + β3(Pi ,j ,k × Tj ,k) + αk + εj (1)
Yi ,j ,k : pro-ISIS index for tweet i posted by user j surrounding event k
P: 0/1 dummy for tweets posted before or after the event
T : 0/1 dummy for users who are predicted in the event area or not
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Diff-in-Diff Results
ISIS sympathizers located in areas where CVE events were heldsignificantly deceased posting of pro-ISIS content, up to a month after theevents
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
−0.
10−
0.05
0.00
0.05
Days after event
Coe
ffici
ent:
Pos
t x In
eve
nt a
rea
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
What do These Results Mean?
The decline in pro-ISIS rhetoric after community engagementactivities might be driven by
De-radicalization of ISIS sympathizers
Strategic behavior after becoming aware of government surveillance
Migration of ISIS sympathizers to private social media platforms
Self-censoring of extremist expression
Increased suspension of ISIS sympathizer accounts
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Community Engagement and the Suppression of Pro-ISISRhetoric
The American CVE program primarily targeted Muslimcommunities
Critics argued that the program created a climate of fear in thesecommunities, discouraging the expression of political opinions
This might mean that individuals sympathizing with ISIS may havedecreased pro-ISIS rhetoric simply to avoid detection
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Additional Tests
I examine whether ISIS sympathizers stopped using Twitter aftercommunity engagement events by looking at overall number of tweets
No change in the number of tweets postedThe only change is in the content of the tweets
−0.
4−
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
Coe
ffici
ent:
Pos
t x In
eve
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7 days 14 days 21 days
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Additional Tests
I also examine whether ISIS sympathizers stopped followingpropaganda-disseminating accounts
I find a significant decrease in the number of accounts followed
−0.
10−
0.05
0.00
0.05
Coe
ffici
ent:
Pos
t x In
eve
nt a
rea
7 days 14 days 21 days
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Additional Tests
The decrease in pro-ISIS rhetoric observed in event areas could alsobe the result of increased vigilance in event areas
I find that community engagement events were followed by significantlyhigher reporting and suspension of accounts located in event areas
−0.
005
0.00
50.
015
Reported to Twitter
Coe
ffici
ent:
Pos
t x In
eve
nt a
rea
7 days 14 days 21 days
−0.
001
0.00
10.
003
0.00
5
Suspended from Twitter
Coe
ffici
ent:
Pos
t x In
eve
nt a
rea
7 days 14 days 21 days
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
The American CVE Program Impacted the OnlineBehavior of ISIS Sympathizers on Twitter
After community engagement events, ISIS sympathizers:
Significantly decreased posting pro-ISIS content
Unfollowed accounts that disseminated propaganda
These results could be interpreted either as a sign ofde-radicalization or strategic behavior resulting from increasedawareness to government surveillance
Community engagement events increased vigilance in the areaswhere they were held, increasing reporting and suspension ofISIS-supporting accounts
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Concluding Remarks
As investment in countering violent extremism increases, there is agrowing need to evaluate its effectiveness
While measuring a radicalization remains a challenge, social mediadata provides a useful window, especially when combing with ‘offline’data
More research is needed to shed light on whether the reduction inpro-ISIS rhetoric was caused by de-radicalization or by the suppressionof extremist expression
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism
Thank you!
Tamar Mittstm2630@columbia.edu
Tamar Mitts Countering Violent Extremism