Transcript of Counselors of Real Estate October 12, 2009. In 2005, the US Census Bureau reported that 155,000,000...
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- Counselors of Real Estate October 12, 2009
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- In 2005, the US Census Bureau reported that 155,000,000 people,
53% of our population, resided in coastal areas. The vast majority
of coastal communities have no structural protection from storm
surges and rely on preparedness and intelligent development
practices to mitigate risk. Hurricanes are a common occurrence
throughout the Gulf Coast and Atlantic seaboard states since 2000,
71 hurricanes were reported of which 41 made landfall. Growth of
Population Residing in Coastal Areas since 1950 Hurricanes and
Landfall since 2000
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- In 2005, there were 27 named storms 12 tropical and 15
hurricanes. 7 hurricanes made landfall. Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and
Wilma were the worse creating havoc throughout the Gulf Coast,
causing over $125 billion of damage, and testing all preparedness,
protection, and response systems. These storms demonstrated our
lack of understanding, respect, and ability to manage catastrophic
natural events.
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- DennisKatrinaRitaWilma
Formed4-Jul-0523-Aug-0517-Sep-0515-Oct-05 Highest Wind Speed 150
mph175 mph180 mph185 mph Fatalities 42 direct 47 indirect 1,836
confirmed 705 missing 7 direct 113 indirect 23 direct 39 indirect
Damage$4 billion$100 billion$10 billion$29.1 billion Communities
throughout the Gulf Cost suffered significant loss of life and
property. Coastal areas were devastated by high winds, storm surges
and flooding. These storms overwhelmed everything in their
paths.
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- Hurricane Katrina was huge : Powerful with sustained winds over
130 mph. Had an incredible surge over 30 feet at the center and a
footprint of 140 miles wide. Produced rain equivalent to the 500
year standard. Katrina was one of the largest and most powerful
storms of the 20 th Century far bigger than hurricanes Betsy and
Camille. It embodied the energy of 4 atomic bombs and overcame the
structural defenses protecting the City of New Orleans. Katrina
destroyed over 200 square miles of coastal areas in Louisiana more
than 40% of the loss anticipated for the coming 50 years.
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- While the wind speed was great, the volume of water and the
energy it produced was phenomenal. When Katrinas surge hit land, it
was moving well over 3.6 trillion cubic feet of water. Measured in
Joules, Katrinas energy was 27 times that of Hurricane Betsy and
nearly 4 times that of Camille.
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- New Orleans Mobile 16 18 18 20 20 22 22 24 24 27 14 16 12 14 10
12 Katrina Maximum Water Depths Source: IPET Figures 74 & 75
(Volume IV The Storm (Pages IV-112 and 113)
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- 10 12 12 14 14 16 14 15 16 18 18 20 20 2222 24 24 28 Maximum
Tidal Surge Elevations Hurricane Katrina Versus Betsy Hurricane
Betsy Total Hurricane Energy Index = 3.1 GW Hurricane Katrina Total
Hurricane Energy Index = 85.5 GW Mobile New Orleans 12 14 10 12 14
15 12 14 10 12 12 14 14 15 12 14 10 12
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- 12 14 14 16 14 15 16 18 18 20 20 2222 24 24 28 Maximum Tidal
Surge Elevations Hurricane Katrina Versus Camille Hurricane Camille
Total Hurricane Energy Index = 23.2 GW Hurricane Katrina Total
Hurricane Energy Index = 85.5 GW Mobile New Orleans New
Orleans
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- The impact of a storm like Katrina could never be fully
prevented; however, it could be mitigated. Of the over 100 billion
dollars of damage, approximately $40 billion can be attributed to
levee breaches and environmental deterioration. Beyond the direct
impact, the long term consequences of the storm in the New Orleans
metropolitan area will prove to be costly and significant.
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- Katrina Maximum Water Depths 15 In River 10 12 At Lakefront 16
In River 14 - 16 12 - 14 16 - 18 18 - 20 20 - 22 22 - 24 24 - 27
3.0 3.0 >4.0 3.0
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- Area All Damage M&S M&S Flood Total 1,197,499 305,109
217,078 Louisiana 515,249 204,737 168,813 Orleans 134,344 105,155
99,989 Louisiana43.0%67.1%77.8% Orleans11.2%34.5%46.1% Nearly
1,200,000 homes were damaged by Katrina of this amount, 43% were in
Louisiana. Throughout the impact area, 26% of all damage was Major
or Severe in contrast to 40% in LA and 78% in New Orleans. Flooding
was clearly the primary cause of Major or Severe damage but
particularly in LA where it accounted for 83% and in New Orleans
where it was over 95%.
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- The Hardee Map of 1878 displays the layout of New Orleans when
the citys population was about 203,000. Areas developed and settled
since then were affected severely by post-Katrina flooding. The
flood did not discriminate by race or class. It did discriminate
historically: it took out everything but the old city. If you asked
an architecture criticto design a flood of this size in New
Orleans, he would have given you something like this one. -Michael
Lewis, The New York Times, October 9, 2005 The flood did not
discriminate by race or class. It did discriminate historically: it
took out everything but the old city. If you asked an architecture
criticto design a flood of this size in New Orleans, he would have
given you something like this one. -Michael Lewis, The New York
Times, October 9, 2005
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- The following slides illustrate resettlement patterns in the
City on a biannual basis from January 2006 through January 2009.
These maps demonstrate how repopulation has radiated outward from
areas which recovered quickly after the storm. In each of these
maps, red represents areas in which activity is less than 20% of
its pre-Katrina level. Green represents areas in which activity is
greater than 80% of its pre-Katrina level. Yellow and orange
display areas in transition between these levels. Boundaries of New
Orleans City Council Districts are also displayed.
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- Estimated Single Family Home Value = $177,960 (assumes in
livable condition) 6,502 units occupied pre-Katrina but now vacant.
Source: www.city-data.com, GCR & Associates,
Inc.www.city-data.com
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- Demonstrative Progress 77% of pre-storm population 71% of
pre-storm job figures 77% of pre-storm commercial activity $5
Billion invested in 68,000 housing units $15 Billion in improved
hurricane protection Major Challenges 80,000 jobs lost in the metro
area 50% increase in rents More than 60,000 vacant homes Damaged
infrastructure Diminished services Minimal private investment While
the recovery of the region and particularly the City of New Orleans
is progressing better than many national experts originally
predicted, there are significant challenges that must be addressed
as we move forward.
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- The Metropolitan Area has 88% of its pre storm population
Jefferson Parish is back to pre-storm levels St. Tammany, St.
Charles and St. John the Baptist Parishes have grown Orleans,
Plaquemines and St. Bernard Parishes have substantially fewer
residents Source: U.S. Census and GCR & Associates, Inc. using
data provided by Entergy Louisiana and ESRI, Inc.
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- The City of New Orleans continues to recover Approximately 77%
of its pre-storm population has returned While very high, vacant
residential properties continue to be absorbed Over 70% of the jobs
based in Orleans Parish have returned Commercial activity is
currently at 76% of pre-storm levels While increasing, school
enrollment continues to lag other indicators
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- Estimated Single Family Home Value = $395,442 3,875 units
occupied pre-Katrina but now vacant. Lakeview Estimated Single
Family Home Value = $177,960 6,502 units occupied pre-Katrina but
now vacant. Gentilly
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- Fair Market Rent for a 2-Bedroom Unit
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- Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission, Spring 2009,
HUD-published Fair Market Rents for 2009, and Low Income Housing
Tax Credit rent limits for New Orleans MSA provided by Novogradac
and Company, LLP Housing Affordability Gap for Top Ten In-Demand
Occupations
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- Source: Louisiana Workforce Commission Employment by Industry
for New Orleans MSA
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- Growing civic interest and participation Emerging community of
young, civic-minded professionals Burgeoning health care and film
industries Green Movement Improving public education Many centrally
located mixed income housing developments
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- Blighted and abandoned homes Post recovery economic drivers
Stagnant job growth Many residents do not have the financial means
to rebuild Limited access to affordable healthcare, childcare and
transportation A high and unabating crime rate Confidence in our
hurricane protection and loss of coastal areas
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- While the population of the City will continue to grow, it will
likely not reach pre-Katrina levels in the near future Our capacity
to absorb or redevelop blighted and abandoned homes will pace the
recovery in many neighborhoods As our population continues to grow,
we move closer to our pre storm demographic profile With more than
$20 billion in new investments, the city has the potential to
emerge as a stronger, more resilient and economically diverse
community
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- For more information: Gregory C. Rigamer
grigamer@gcrConsulting.com 2021 Lakeshore Drive, Ste. 500 New
Orleans, LA 70122 800.259.6192 | 504.304.2500
www.gcrConsulting.com