Post on 21-Jan-2018
CONTENTS
Purpose of analysis
Research and timeframe
Methodology
Findings
Public Support
Recommendations
PURPOSE OF ANALYSIS
To research estimates of the costs and lives saved by 2020 if the passenger helmet law is passed and
enforced in 2014.
RESEARCH AND TIMEFRAME
• Researcher: Asia Injury Prevention Foundation
The model was adapted from those used in
public health by the U.S CDC
• Timeframe: Four months
METHODOLOGY
Source of data and references
• Cambodia National Road Safety Action Plan for 2011 – 2020
• RCVIS report, Annual Reports from 2008-2012: Road crashes and casualties in Cambodia.
• Liu et al., “Helmets for Preventing Injury in Motorcycle Riders”
• World Health Organization, Global Status Report on Road Safety 2013
• 2013 bi-monthly helmet observation,Handicap International
• Analysis of Costs of Road Crashes report in Cambodia by ADB and updated in 2011 by Handicap International
• Consumer Price Index Data, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for 2014
METHODOLOGY (cont.)
The cost savings were calculated based on the figures
from Asia Development Bank (ADB) and updated in 2011 by
Handicap International.
Model for calculating number of head injuries prevented:
y2 = (f) x (g x h x j x e)
Model for calculating number of lives saved:
y1=(f) x (a x b x c x d x e)
METHODOLOGY (cont.)
a = Projected number of RTFs. Values of “a” were calculated by the
Institute of Road Safety Research (SWOV), The Netherlands, and used for
developing the Cambodia National Road Safety Action Plan 2011-2020
Model for calculating number of lives saved:
y1=(f) x (a x b x c x d x e)
f = % of all motorcycle crash-related fatalities that are
passengers
b = % of road traffic fatalities that are motorcyclists
c = % of motorcycle fatality crashes that result in head injuries
Values of f, b, c obtained from the average figures of RCVIS
reports from 2008 to 2012
METHODOLOGY (cont.)
Model for calculating number of lives saved:
y1=(f) x (a x b x c x d x e)
d = % reduction in likelihood of death by effect of wearing
motorcycle helmet. Value of “d” obtained from the
Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. d = 42%
e = projected % increase in passenger helmet use
METHODOLOGY (cont.)
Model for calculating number of lives saved:
y1=(f) x (a x b x c x d x e)
METHODOLOGY (cont.)
Model for calculating number of head injuries prevented:
y2 = (f) x (g x h x j x e)
f = % of all motorcycle crash-related fatalities that are passengers
g = 20 x (a x b) : Estimated number of non-fatal motorcycle-related
traffic injuries (according WHO Global Status Report on Road
Safety 2013, the fatality to injury ratio is 1 to 20)
Model for calculating N. of head injuries prevented:
y2 = (f) x (g x h x j x e)
h = % of non-fatal motorcycle crash-related injuries that are head injuries. Values of h obtained from the average figures of RCVIS reports from 2008 to 2012
j = % by which motorcycle helmets have been shown to reduce the risk of head injury. Value of j obtained from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. j = 69%
e = Projected % increase in passenger helmet use
METHODOLOGY (cont.)
METHODOLOGY (cont.)
Calculation took into
consideration:
• Property damage,
administration costs,
• Lost output, medical
and human costs
The cost savings were calculated based on the
figures from Asia Development Bank (ADB) and updated in
2011 by Handicap International.
FINDINGS
If the passenger helmet law is
passed in 2014 and effectively
enforced:
• 561 lives will be saved;
• 10,574 head injuries
will be prevented; and
• USD 98,618,422 will be
saved by 2020
FINDINGS (cont.)
Year
Passeng
-er
helmet
use
Increase
in
passenger
helmet
use
Est,
lives
saved
Est, head
injuries
prevented
Cost ($USD)
savings for
fatalities
Cost ($USD)
savings for
injuries
Total cost
($USD)
savings
2015 55% 48% 61 1,152 2,668,563 8,079,457 10,748,020
2016 60% 53% 72 1,362 3,141,045 9,550,209 12,691,255
2017 65% 58% 85 1,600 3,708,178 11,221,272 14,929,450
2018 70% 63% 99 1,864 4,318,937 13,071,590 17,390,527
2019 75% 68% 114 2,148 4,973,322 15,064,114 20,037,436
2020 80% 73% 130 2,446 5,671,332 17,150,403 22,821,735
Total 561 10,574 24,481,377 74,137,045 98,618,422
PUBLIC SUPPORT
Approximately 98% of survey respondents and 97% of parents support a mandatory helmet law for passengers and children respectively.
Over 6,000 people have signed petitions to show their support for a universal passenger helmet law since January 2013.
An estimated 10,000 pledges have been obtained showing support for the swift enactment of the passenger helmet law.
PUBLIC SUPPORT (cont.)
Over 100 stakeholders from the private sector, civil society, and international community have endorsed the joint policy recommendation.
Submitted to H.E Minister of Public Works and Transport and a senior representative from National Police in January 2013. The statement was later co-issued by Handicap International and Coalition for Road Safety (CRY).
Joint Statement: Motorcycle Passengers, Including Children, Must Wear Helmets
RECOMMENDATIONS
For media: Advocate for and mobilize public support for the enactment of laws that mandate helmets for motorcycle passengers, including children.
For government: Approve the draft law and implement further enforcement and intervention to reach the national target on helmet use by 2020.
For civil society organizations: Intensive advocacy activities for the passenger helmet law to be passed and then enforced as soon as possible.
RESULT
New Traffic Law: A new traffic law mandating helmets for motorcycle passengers, including children, has been approved by the national assembly, signed by the King and announced in public by the Ministry of Public Works and Transport.
National Passenger Helmet Enforcement Action Plan: AIP Foundation works closely with the General Commissariat of the National Police, Provincial Police to develop the Passenger Helmet Enforcement Action Plan for national and district levels.
RESULT
New Sub-degree on Fines: To ensure the new traffic law enforcement is implemented smoothly and effectively, a new sub-degree on fines was developed by the National Road Safety Committee and approved by the Government.
New Law Enforcement: An official announcement from the General Commissariat of the National Police, with commitment from the Government started enforcing from January 2015.