Post on 26-Mar-2015
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
Tim HerbertSr. Director, Market Research
Consumer Electronics Association
therbert@ce.org
Making Sense of Our Brave New World5 Trends in Consumer Technologies Devices
Software
Packaged Content
DRM
Distribution
DIY ContentNetworks
Platforms
Services
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
Point A Points B, C, D…
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
It “Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon Drives EverythingFaster, smaller, clearer, greater capacity, cheaper, etc.
1
Enriched ConnectionsNetworks (home, cloud, sneaker, or social) offer greater utility
3
Distribution Redefined New methods, ideas and models better connect consumers & content
4
More Displays, More OptionsNumber of screens in the home/out of the home continues to expand
2
Empowerment | Personalization AcceleratesDevices, tools, and information further empower consumers to work and be entertained when, where and how they want, while allowing companies to better target their audiences
5
5 Trends to Watch
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
For a number of reasons, it is tough to predict exactly what products and services will emerge, but it is safe to assume there will be plenty of product improvements and innovations at the margin.
“It Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon
As usual, consumer electronics products will get smaller, faster, clearer, lighter, more efficient, increased capacity, longer runtime, higher resolution, more reliable and larger screens, while getting less expensive.
1
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
A Brief History of Time
200
1
196
8
200
7
200
6
199
1
199
5
199
0
193
0
9.7 CE productsper household
25 CE productsper household
Year when product reached ~25% household penetration
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
2%
8%
11%
31%
32%
37%
39%
43%
62%
66%
Digital photo frame
Smartphones
Portable navigation
Portable gaming device
Portable DVD player
Notebook PC
Portable MP3/DM player
Digital TV
Digital camera
Desktop PC
More Displays, More Options
45%
32%
32%
28%
5%
12%
1% all | 21% DM
10%
-3%
5%
2
Google Gas Pump Display?
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
A Closer Look at Television
1.5 2.54.1
8.311.4
23.5
30.533.6
36.137.4 38.2
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007e 2008p 2009p 2010p 2011p
e – estimated, p - projected
LCD = 18.5 million units shipped in ‘07
Digital Displays | Millions of units
46% decline in prices
HDTV penetration rate ~32%
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
Enriched Connections3
Broadband = 51%, but many newbies
30% have a wired or
wireless home network
Home Theater = 26%
• Wide area connections (WiMax, WiFi/Hotspots, Cell, Broadband, SlingMedia)
• Local area connections (Ethernet, WiFi, HDMI)
• Personal networks (RF, Bluetooth, OE integration)
• Connecting services (VOIP, vlogs, blogs, social networks)
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
1%
16%
17%
20%
29%
29%
44%
46%
47%
54%
88%
91%
Other
Access PC Documents
Video Conferencing
Access the Internet
Listen to PC Audio
View Digital Photos
Play Video Games
View Digital Video Files
Watch Content from DVR
Watch TV Programs
Watch DVDs
Desired Activities Using Home TV
Share
Interact
Personalize
Explore
Connect
Control
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
Video Content Watched on a PC
6%
18%
19%
21%
28%
33%
36%
39%
49%
Other
Home movies
Sports
TV shows
Video games
Movies
Music videos
Weather
News
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Distribution Redefined4
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
Sources of PC Video
3%
19%
26%
33%
47%
70%
Other
Disc based games
Online games
Digital video files
DVD
Internet streams
• 10% have ripped DVD content
– Including home videos• 16% have burned digital
videos to DVD
YouTube: 206 million unique visitors
2.9 billion downloads through iTunes
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
Seeking a Change?
Content Distribution Method Current Preferred Difference
Physically move content 50% 25% -25%
Centrally stored content 5% 23% 18%
Place shifting device 5% 13% 8%
Movie copies of content 10% 5% -5%
Use network 9% 5% -4%
Physically move device 21% 4% -17%
Remotely stored content NA 1% NA
Other 2% 1% -1%
None 31% 24% -7%
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
27%
29%
34%
36%
49%
52%
28%
33%
27%
37%
37%
68%
CDsDVDs
Fewer restrictions with physical media
Afraid something may happen to the digital file
Physical copy easier to share with friends/family
Minimal hassle factor
Like in-person shopping experience
Like to display collection of DVDs or CDs
Or, Does Physical Media Still Appeal?Reasons for Preferring Physical CDs or DVDs
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
Today, Video Entertainment = Home
LocationPercent of
UsersPercent of
TimeHome 97% 75%Friends/Families Home 31% 8%Movie Theater 30% 6%Work 12% 4%In Car 9% 2%Public Transportation 8% 2%School 4% 1%At the Gym 4% 1%Walking Around 3% 1%Other 1% 0%Total 199% 100%
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
Tomorrow, Entertainment = Home + X?
• 34% say portability of content important/very important
• 27% interested/very interested in media server for in-home distribution
• 86% say picture quality important/very important; 79% say price; 73% say ease of accessing
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
Empowerment | Personalization5
10%25%
DVR Penetration
Mid-year 2005
Mid-year 2007
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
8%
58%
34%
Neutral
Negative
Positive
30% of HDTV owner sports fans agree or strongly agree with the statement “companies that advertise in high-definition are more tech savvy.”
Perception of Companies That Advertise in High Definition
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
It “Goes to Eleven” Phenomenon Drives EverythingFaster, smaller, clearer, greater capacity, cheaper, etc.
1
Enriched ConnectionsNetworks (home, cloud, sneaker, or social) offer greater utility
3
Distribution Redefined New methods, ideas and models better connect consumers & content
4
More Displays, More OptionsNumber of screens in the home/out of the home continues to expand
2
5 Trends to Watch
Empowerment | Personalization AcceleratesDevices, tools, and information further empower consumers to work and be entertained when, where and how they want, while allowing companies to better target their audiences
5
Copyright © 2007 Consumer Electronics Association
Tim HerbertSr. Director, Market Research
Consumer Electronics Association
therbert@ce.org
Thank You