Post on 27-May-2015
MTL 512Supply Chain management
and SecurityField Study
G8
Field Study
Selected organization UASC shipping Line
Selected Aspect of SCM Supply chain operations
SCOR -Supply Chain Operations Research model developed by the Supply-Chain Council
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SCOR Model
1) Plan2) Source
3) Make 4) Deliver
Source: Supply Chain Council Inc. as cited in Hugos. M. (2003)
Supply Chain Operations Research
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Four Categories of Supply Chain Operations
• Planning : – Demand forecasting– Product pricing– Inventory management.
• Sourcing – Procurement and credit– Collections
Both these operations have a big impact on the efficiency of a supply chain.
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Four Categories of Supply Chain Operations
• Make – Product design– Production management; and facility – Management
• Deliver – Order entry/order fulfillment – Product delivery
These two operations constitute the core connections between companies in a supply chain.
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Container
Shipping
Shipping
Ship’s space
Ships, Containers and Ports
Ships and Ports
Ship’s cellular spaceProduct offer
Primary tools
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Supply of
Containers
Shipping is a complex subject
Supply of Sea Containers
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Exporter make a Booking
S line release an empty container to exporter
Exporter stuff the cargo
Laden container sent to port
Container loaded on boardShip sails to destination
Demand Forecasting and Planning
• Sea Container SCM decisions are based on exports and imports forecasts of a particular port.
• 4 major variables– Supply sources of empty containers by
UASC– Demand of exporters– Product Characteristics (i.e. commodity vs
container type) – Competitive environment (i.e. port rotation
of other carriers vs global trading pattern)
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Empty Container Supply and Demand Complexity
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25 X 20’30 X 40’
25 X 20’30 X 40’
15 X 20’50 X 40’
15 X 20’ 50 X 40’
Exports
Exports ImportsImports
Surplus = 10 X 20‘
Deficit = 20 X 40‘
Singapore
ColomboPort said
Forecasting methods
PESTEEL or market factorsExport commodity data, etc.
Time-Series Methods
Causal Analysis Market Research Analysis Moving average, Exponential smoothing and Trend analysisof the port’s exports
Seasonality analysis
Simulation
Assumption:Historical patterns of demand + export growth rates = future demand
Internal and External expert’s intuition or subjective opinions about the market. Traditional exports and trends
Qualitative Methods
FORECASTEXPORT
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Monthly Forecast
Weekly Forecast
Annual Budget 2012 >> August 2011Port pairs (Colombo/Hamburg) Container Type wise (20’/40/ or special types)
“Forecasts are always wrong to a greater or lesser degree” - Hugos.
M. (2003)
S Line accepts(+ or -)5-10 % variation of each port’s forecast.
Methods used to reduce forecasting errors
Mat
hem
atic
al a
ppro
ach
Realistic approach
Low usefulness
Three Months Forecast
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Sample Forecasts
As per Bud. 2009 Please fillup the figures for Budget 2009 and Estimate / Actual 2009 and compare with your Budget 2010 figures.
As per Est/Act 2009
Sector wise Summary
Pls do not enter data here
Sector wise Summary Pls do not enter data hereBUDGET 2010 AG Arabian Gulf 100 379 50 950 50 1050 100 100 300 137900
RS Red Sea 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 IS Indian Sub Continent 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EM East Mediterranean 410 1370 413 2081 851 1960 410 1264 2938 3088450 EE Europe East Med. 7 1000 4 1963 665 1953 7 669 1345 1313850 WM West Mediterranean 47 719 12 1180 614 1585 47 626 1299 1021089 EU Europe 131 760 121 733 155 1104 131 276 683 359351 US North America 103 1093 243 1371 312 1461 103 555 1213 901595 FE Far East 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 798 1068 843 1602 2647 1745 798 3490 7778 6822235
G.TTL Bud. 2010 1,596 1,686 5,294 1,596 15,556 0
Critical Factors
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UASC has more than 387,000 container units of various types and sizes.
Presence in over 204 ports globally Number of ports pairs = 28,680 Complexity of SCM is obvious. Managed through online EMS (Equipment
Management System)
Sea Container Supply Chain(Limitations: Line’s container purchases to the main fleet are not within the
scope of study)
Laden Imports
On-hired/Leasing
Empty Imports
Supply Sources Key Contributors Warehouses & Distribution Centers
Customers
CFS Lift-On/Off
Port Stevedoring
Repairs & Washing
Logistics & Maintenance cost
Availability costInventory Cost
Port Demurrage/rent
CFS Rent
Importer
Exporter
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Supply Chain Integration
• Demand is uncertain • Customization is High • Scale economies are Low
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The domestic context and use study for the benefit to Sri
Lanka
Another Paradox: SL imported 13,005 TEUs Empty Containers ????
Majority of imports come in 20’s while Exporting commodities are predominantly in 40’s
Cost to carriers: USD 32,302,047 for five months (@USD 318.75 per REPO- L&D THC and Slot cost) = USD 78 Million annually Wednesday, April 12, 202316G 8
The significance and recommendations
Diminishing interest by carriers Negative Impact on
Exporters and importers Consumers and commodity prices
An expert panel comprising Shipping experts Commodity experts Logistics & Supply chain experts Economists , may jointly find a solution to the
issue.
Eg.Network Services in North America has more than 75 member-distributors with more than 275 locations
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18
Thank you
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