Post on 27-May-2020
C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C ECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLDQUARTER 1, 2014
2014 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 1ST EDITION
2 QUARTER 1 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2
GLOBALLY• Globalconsumerconfidenceincreasedto96pointsonascaleindexed
toamid-pointof100inQ12014,thehighestlevelsince2007
• PerceptionsoflocaljobprospectsimprovedinallregionsexceptLatinAmerica
• Recessionarysentimentimprovedin68percentofmarkets
• Discretionaryspendingintentionsincreasedinallregions
• U.S.consumerconfidenceisatitshighestlevelsince2007
• GermanyandJapanconsumerconfidenceareattheirhighestlevelssince2005
• Sub-SaharanAfricaconsumerconfidenceisincludedforthefirsttime
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REACHES PRE-RECESSION LEVELS
Globalconsumerconfidencereturnedtoapre-recessionlevelwith
anindexscoreof96inthefirstquarter—thehighestscoresince
first-quarter2007,accordingtoconsumerconfidencefindingsfrom
Nielsen,aleadingglobalproviderofinformationandinsightsintowhat
consumerswatchandbuy.
Theglobalindexscorerepresentsatwo-pointincreasefromfourth-
quarter2013andathree-pointincreasefromayearago(Q12013).The
Nielsenconsumerconfidenceindexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal
jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.
Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate
degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.
RegionalconsumerconfidencewashighestinAsia-Pacificwithanindex
scoreof106,aone-pointincreasefromthepreviousquarter(Q42013)
andathree-pointincreasefromayearago(Q12013).NorthAmerica
postedthelargestquarterlyincreaseoffivepointstoreachtheoptimism
baselineof100—thehighestlevelsince2007.TheMiddleEast/Africa
regionincreasedfourpointsto94,andEuroperosetwopointsto
75,comparedtofourth-quarter2013.LatinAmericareportedtheonly
quarterlyregionalconsumerconfidencedecline,fallingonepointto93.
3Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company 3
ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY
Thefindingsinthissurveyarebasedonrespondentswithonline
accessin60countries(unlessotherwisenoted).Whileanonline
surveymethodologyallowsfortremendousscaleandglobalreach,it
providesaperspectiveonlyonthehabitsofexistingInternetusers,
nottotalpopulations.Indevelopingmarketswhereonlinepenetration
isstillgrowing,audiencesmaybeyoungerandmoreaffluentthanthe
generalpopulationofthatcountry.Inaddition,surveyresponsesare
basedonclaimedbehaviorratherthanactualmetereddata.
Intheworld’sbiggesteconomies,consumerconfidenceincreasedsix
pointsintheU.S.(100),remainedflatinChina(111),increasedone
pointinJapan(81),increasedfourpointsinGermany(99),increased
eightpointsinFrance(59)andincreasedthreepointsintheU.K.(87).
“Withglobalconsumerconfidenceataseven-yearhigh,itmarks
asignificantmilestoneforthelongestrecessionsincetheGreat
Depression,”saidDr.VenkateshBala,chiefeconomistatTheCambridge
Group,apartofNielsen.“Aglobalsentimentmovestooneofcautious
stability.Asrecoverycontinues,signsofoptimismareincreasing.”
TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending
Intentions,establishedin2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,
majorconcernsandspendingintentionsamongmorethan30,000
respondentswithInternetaccess,in60countries.
Inthelatestroundofthesurvey,conductedFeb.17–March7,2014,
consumerconfidenceincreasedin60percentofmarketsmeasuredby
Nielsen—upfrom43percentthepreviousquarter(Q42013).Indonesia
(124)reportedthehighestconsumerconfidenceindexscoreforthefifth
consecutivequarter,whichwasflatcomparedtofourth-quarter2013.
CroatiaandItalyeachreportedthelowestconsumerconfidencescores
(45),anincreaseofonepointeachcomparedtothepreviousquarter.
Egypt(87)andSwitzerland(104)reportedthelargestquarter-on-quarter
increasesof11and10points,respectively.Ukraine(56)reportedthe
biggestquarterlydeclineofsevenpoints.
4 QUARTER 1 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ1-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12014
+6+2
+4+6
0
-1
-4
+10
+1
-1
+6
-5
0
+4
+2
+1
+2
-1
-1
0
-6
-2-6
+3+1
+11+8+4-4+4-2+5-4
-6+6
+40
-1
+3
+4
-1
-6
+1
+6
+3
0
+5
+3
+8
-7
+3
+8
-2+7
+2
+1
85 ISRAEL
86 LITHU
ANIA
86 M
EXICO 87
EGYPT 87 AUSTRIA
87 UNITED KINGDOM
SOUTH KOREA 51
89 AUSTRALIA
PORTUGAL 51
92 NORWAY
SERBIA 52
GREECE 53
92 MALAYSIA
HUNGARY 54
93 COLOMBIA
UKRAINE
56
98 CHILE
FRANCE 59
99 CANADA
SPAIN 61
99 PAKISTAN
ROMANIA 67
99 VIETNAM
FINLAND 67
99 SINGAPORE
SLOVAKIA 68 99 GERMANYBULGARIA 68 100 NEW ZEALAND
POLAND 70
100 DENMARK
ARGENTINA 71
100 UNITED STATES
BELGIUM 74
101 PERU
CZECH REPUBLIC 75
102 SAUDI ARABIA
TAIWAN 76
104 SWITZERLAND
NETHERLANDS 76
106 BRAZIL
LATVIA
76
108 THAILAND
VENEZUELA 7
8
111 C
HINA
ESTONIA
79
111
HONG KONG
TURKE
Y
81
114
UNITED A
RAB EM
IRATE
S
JAPA
N
81
116
PHIL
IPPI
NES
SOUT
H A
FRIC
A
82
121
IN
DIA
IREL
AND
8
2SW
EDEN
83
RUSS
IA
83
+4
SLOVENIA
48
0
124
IN
DO
NES
IA
IND
EX
COU
NTR
Y
LESS
CONFIDENT
MORE CONFIDENT
+1
ITALY45
+1
CROATIA
45
NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC
96 GLOBAL
AVERAGE( +2 change from Q4-2013 )
INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM
5Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ1-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
5
GLOBAL JOB OUTLOOK IMPROVESPositiveperceptionsaboutlocaljobprospectsoverthenext12months
increasedinthefirstquarterineveryregionexceptLatinAmerica.
Almosthalfofglobalrespondents(49%)believedthejobmarketwould
begoodorexcellentintheupcomingyear,anincreaseof2percentage
pointsinthefirstquarter,whichbringstheglobalaveragetojustbelow
thepre-recessionoutlookof50percent.Thebiggestquarterlysurgein
joboptimismcamefromNorthAmerica,increasing5percentagepoints
to43percent.Asia-Pacificrespondentsweremostoptimisticabout
employmentopportunities,with64percentbelievingthatjobprospects
werefavorablefortheyearahead,upfrom63percenttheprevious
quarter.
Anoptimisticoutlookforfuturejobprospectsalsoincreasedinthe
MiddleEast/Africa(40%)andEurope(28%),rising1and3percentage
points,respectively.InLatinAmerica,thetrendwasslightlydownward:
42percentofrespondentsregisteredpositiveperceptionsfor
employmentopportunities,comparedto43percentinfourth-quarter
2013.
Morethanhalf(55%)ofglobalrespondentsregardedtheirpersonal
financespositively,alevelthathasheldsteadyforthreeconsecutive
quarters.InLatinAmericaandAsia-Pacific,respondentsweremost
secureinmoneymatters,with63and62percent,respectively,believing
thestateoftheirfinancesweregoodorexcellent.Europeanrespondents
wereleastconfidentaboutfinances,with57percentsayingtheir
personalsituationwasnotgood.
6 QUARTER 1 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
JOB PROSPECT ATTITUDES
PERSONAL FINANCE ATTITUDES
PERCENT BELIEVING JOB PROSPECTS WILL BE GOOD OR EXCELLENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
PERCENT BELIEVING THE STATE OF PERSONAL FINANCES WILL BE GOOD OR EXCELLENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
Q4 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2014
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12014
63%
38% 43%
39%
25%
64%
43% 42% 40%
28%
ASIA-PACIFIC
ASIA-PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
LATIN AMERICA
EUROPE
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST/ AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST/ AFRICA
62% 61% 57%
53%
37%
62% 63% 59% 56%
38%
7Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
PERCENT BELIEVING JOB PROSPECTS WILL BE GOOD OR EXCELLENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
PERCENT BELIEVING THE STATE OF PERSONAL FINANCES WILL BE GOOD OR EXCELLENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
GLOBAL RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT IMPROVESMorethanhalfofglobalrespondents(55%)feltmiredinrecessioninthe
firstquarter,animprovementcomparedto57percentintheprevious
quarter.
Regionally,recessionarysentimentimprovedmostinNorthAmerica,
down7percentagepointsto61percent,thelowestlevelsincethestart
oftherecession.Whilenearlythree-quarters(73%)ofrespondentsinthe
MiddleEast/Africaregionfeltaffectedbytherecession,thesentiment
wasanimprovementfrom75percentinfourth-quarter2013.Sixty-nine
percentinEurope,62percentinLatinAmerica,and43percentinAsia-
Pacificbelievedtheywereinaneconomicrecessioninthefirstquarter.
Morethantwo-thirds(68%)ofmarketsmeasuredbyNielsenreported
animprovedrecessionarysentimentcomparedtofourth-quarter2013,
withthesteepestimprovementsintheUnitedArabEmirates(-11
percentagepoints),Switzerland(-11pp)andPeru(-10pp).Recessionary
sentimentalsoimprovedby9percentagepointsinMexico,Vietnam,
RomaniaandNewZealandandby8pointsintheU.S.andthe
Netherlands.
8 QUARTER 1 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
RECESSIONARY SENTIMENT AROUND THE WORLD
PERCENT THAT BELIEVE THEIR COUNTRY IS IN AN ECONOMIC RECESSION
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12014
Q1 2008
Q3 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Global Average Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East/Africa North America
100%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
9Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
PERCENT THAT BELIEVE THEIR COUNTRY IS IN AN ECONOMIC RECESSION
U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REACHES A SEVEN-YEAR HIGH U.S.consumerconfidenceincreasedsixindexpointsinthefirstquarter
toreach100—theoptimismbaselineandthehighestscoresince
third-quarter2007.ElsewhereinNorthAmerica,confidenceinCanada
declinedonepointinthefirstquarterto99andwasdownfrom102last
year(Q12013).
U.S.savingsandinvestingintentionspickeduppaceinthefirst
quarter,with44percentofrespondentsputtingsparecashintosavings
accounts,upfrom39percentinfourth-quarter2013.Fifteenpercent
investedinstocksandmutualfunds,upfrom11percenttheprevious
quarter.Morethanone-third(36%)saidtheypaiddebts,creditcards
andloans,aquarterlyincreaseof5percentagepoints.
U.S.discretionaryspendingintentionsalsoincreased2percentage
pointsinthefirstquarterfornewclothes(26%)andhomeimprovement
projects(21%).Buyingnewtechnologyandspendingonout-of-home
entertainmentwereprioritiesfor21percentofrespondentseach,up4
and3percentagepoints,respectively,comparedtofourth-quarter2013.
“Whilefast-movingconsumergoodsspendingpatternsintheU.S.
continuetomovesideways,asevidencedbynearlyflat(0.2%)unitsales
gainsinthefirstquarter,asignificantmilestonehasbeenreachedwith
consumerconfidencenowatitshighestlevelsince2007,”saidJames
Russo,seniorvicepresident,GlobalConsumerInsights,Nielsen.
10 QUARTER 1 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN NORTH AMERICA
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12014
Q3 2007
Q1 2008
Q3 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
United States Canada
120
60
70
80
90
100
110
11Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
EUROPE’S RECOVERY IS FRAGILE, BUT PROGRESSING ConsumerconfidenceinEuropeincreasedin21of32marketsinthe
firstquarter,withthebiggestincreasesfromsomeoftheregion’slowest
indexperformers.ConfidenceinFrance(59)andGreece(53)increased
eightindexpointseach,andPortugal(51)andSpain(61)increased
sevenandthreepoints,respectively,comparedtofourth-quarter2013.
ConsumerconfidenceinGermanyremainedrobustwithascoreof99,
anincreaseoffourpointsfromthepreviousquarterandthecountry’s
highestindexscorerecorded(sinceNielsenbeganmeasuringconsumer
confidencein2005).
Thelongroadtorecovery,hasbeguninkeymarkets,suchasFrance,
ItalyandSpain,”saidDr.Bala.Germanycontinuestoperformwell,
reportingthelowestunemploymentrateintheeurozone,andrecovery
intheU.K.continuestogathermomentum.”
“InGermany,theconsumerconfidenceindexreachedanewrecord
high,”saidIngoSchier,managingdirector,NielsenGermany.“After
100daysunderthenewgovernment,thewaiveontaxincreases,as
wellastheintroductionofminimumwagesandpensionsformothers,
aremeasuresthathelpedtostrengthenoptimismaboutthefuture.As
GermanyplaysanimportantroleinthebroaderEuropeancontext,this
optimismspellsgoodnewsfortheregion.”
FuturejobprospectsinEuropeincreasedin24of32markets.Themost
notablejoboptimismincreasescamefromSwitzerland,up8percentage
points;Austria,Ireland,GreeceandEstonia,up6percentagepoints
each;GermanyandFranceup5percentagepointseach;andtheU.K.,
Russia,FinlandandHungaryup4percentagepointseach,comparedto
fourth-quarter2013.Discretionaryspending,however,remainedvirtually
flatacrossallspendingcategoriesmeasuredinthefirstquarter.
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12014
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN EUROPE
Q12014CIRCLESDENOTEINDEXDIFFERENCEFROMQ42013
Switzerland
France
Greece
Portugal
Estonia
Bulgaria
Ireland
Romania
Germany
Lithuania
Russia
CzechRepublic
Slovenia
UnitedKingdom
Slovakia
Spain
Hungary
Austria
Poland
Croatia
Italy
Latvia
Finland
Netherlands
Belgium
Norway
Sweden
Serbia
Israel
Denmark
Turkey
Ukraine
104 |
59 |
53 |
51 |
79 |
68 |
82 |
67 |
99 |
86 |
83 |
75 |
48 |
87 |
68 |
61 |
54 |
87 |
70 |
45 |
45 |
76 |
67 |
76 |
74 |
92 |
83 |
52 |
85 |
100 |
81 |
56 |
10
8
8
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-4
-5
-6
-7
12 QUARTER 1 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
“IntheU.K.,consumerconfidencerosetoitshighestlevelinsixyears,
boostedbyimprovingsentimentforjobprospects,”saidChrisMorley,
managingdirector,NielsenU.K.andIreland.“Whilethemacroeconomic
situationcontinuestorecover,optimismhasnotyetfilteredthroughto
people’spersonalfinances.Therehasbeenonlyaminorimprovementin
Britishconsumers’willingnesstospend,and1in4stillreportshaving
nosparecash.”
ConsumerconfidenceinRussiaincreasedfourindexpointsto83in
thefirstquarter,whileUkrainedeclinedsevenindexpointsto56—the
country’slowestscoresinceitwasaddedtotheNielsenGlobalSurveyin
second-quarter2009.
“InUkraine,thedropinconsumerconfidenceisnotsurprisingasrecent
eventsspurredbytheconflictinCrimeaarecreatingfearanduncertainty
inthecountry,”saidSvyatoslavaSvyst,marketleader,NielsenUkraine.
“Thedangerofwarandtheseverecurrencydevaluationcontributedto
consumerdoubtsaboutthecountry’sfuturefinancialandeconomic
stability.”
13Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
SPENDING INTENTIONS INCREASE IN ASIA-PACIFICConsumerconfidenceinAsia-Pacificincreasedineightof14markets
inthefirstquarter,wasflatinthreeanddeclinedinthree.Theregion’s
biggestquarterlyindexincreasewassixpoints,inbothIndia(121)and
HongKong(111).India’sindexrisereturnsthescoretoafourth-quarter
2012levelafterseveralquartersofdecliningperformance.Consumer
confidenceinthePhilippines(116)andThailand(108),aswellas
Indonesia(124)andChina(111),wereamongthehighestindexscoresof
the60countriesmeasured.
“InIndia,theoverallperceptionabouttheeconomyhasachieveda
steadystateasmanybelievethatthingscannotgetworseandthat
investmentswillpickupastheIndianfiscalyearendsandmost
householdsexpectthepositiveimpactofyear-endbonuses,”said
PiyushMathur,president,NielsenIndia.“However,inflationcontinues
tobeachallenge,andthereisasenseofcautiousanticipationabout
theoutcomesoftheworld’slargestdemocraticelection.Despitethese
factors,discretionaryspendingintentionsareslightlymorebuoyantthan
previousquarters,asistypicalattheendofthefinancialyear,andin
goodtimeforthesummerholidayseason.”
“InChina,weseestrongerconfidenceamongrespondentsinTier2and
Tier3cities,comparedwiththoseinTier1,”saidYanXuan,presidentof
NielsenGreaterChina.“Intheselowertierlocations,consumershave
higheraveragesalariesthantheircounterpartsinlowertierlocations,
andtheyhavelessworkandlifepressuresthanthoselivinginTier1
cities.Consumersinthemiddletiercitiesalsodemonstrateagreater
willingnesstopurchasemorepremiumproducts.Thecontinuedrise
oftheChinesemiddle-classthroughoutthecountrybodesverywellfor
China’sgoaltogrowitsGDPthroughmoredomesticconsumption,
ratherthansolelyrelyoninfrastructureinvestmentandexport.”
Indonesia
India
Philippines
China
HongKong
Thailand
NewZealand
Vietnam
Singapore
Malaysia
Australia
Japan
Taiwan
SouthKorea
124
121
116
111
111
108
100
99
99
92
89
81
76
51
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN ASIA-PACIFIC
Q1 2014CIRCLES DENOTE DIFFERENCE FROM Q4 2013
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12014
0
6
2
0
6
-1
0
1
2
-6
-6
1
3
2
14 QUARTER 1 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
ConsumerconfidenceinAustralia(89)andMalaysia(92)declined
sixindexpointseachinthefirstquarter.Australia’sindexdroppedto
itslowestscoreonrecord(sinceNielsenbeganmeasuringconsumer
confidencein2005),and44percentofrespondentsfeltmiredin
recession—upfrom31percentinfourth-quarter2013.
“InAustralia,anumberoflargemanufacturersannouncedcostcutting
efforts,jobcutsandoff-shoringofmanufacturingfacilitiesinthefirst
quarter,whichhaslikelyimpactedAustralians’overallconfidencelevels
inthecountry’seconomicoutlook,”saidChrisPercy,managingdirector,
NielsenPacific.“ThissentimentisreflectedinAustralians’increasing
concernaroundjobprospectsandtheperceptionofthestateoftheir
personalfinances.”
DiscretionarysavingandspendingintentionsintheAsia-Pacificregion
increasedacrossallcategoriesmeasured.Theregionboastedthe
mostprolificsavers,with67percentputtingsparecashintosavings
accounts—anincreaseof7percentagepointscomparedtofourth-
quarter2013.Investinginsharesofstocksandmutualfunds(38%)was
alsoup7percentagepointsinthefirstquarter.Spendingintentions
increasedfornewclothes(+6percentagepoints),homeimprovement
projects(+6pp),holidays/vacations(+4pp),out-of-homeentertainment
(+3pp)andnewtechnology(+3pp),comparedtofourth-quarter2013.
15Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
LATIN AMERICA REPORTS CONFIDENCE UPS AND DOWNSBrazilledtheLatinAmericaregionwithanindexof106,whichdeclined
fourpointsfromfourth-quarter2013.Brazilianrespondentsreportedan
optimisticoutlookforlocaljobprospects(58%)andpersonalfinances
(72%),thoughthesefiguresrepresentdeclinesof5and4percentage
points,respectively.
Thebiggestregionalquarter-on-quarterconsumerconfidenceindex
scoreincreaseswereinMexico(86)andVenezuela(78),whichrose
eightandfourpoints,respectively.Conversely,consumerconfidencein
Argentina(71)declinedsixpoints,whileChile(98)andPeru(101)each
fellonepoint,respectively,comparedtofourth-quarter2013.Colombia’s
indexremainedflatinthefirstquarterwithascoreof93.
ThebiggestconcernsforLatinAmericansincludedworriesaboutjob
security(16%),theeconomy(13%),crime(11%),work/lifebalance(9%)
andhealth(9%).
Regionally,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingincreaseswere
reportedforout-of-homeentertainmentexpenses(+3percentage
points),newtechnologyproducts(+3pp)andhomeimprovement
projects(+2pp).Nearlyone-third(32%)ofLatinAmericanrespondents
putmoneyintosavingsand35percentpaiddebts,creditcardsand
loans.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN LATIN AMERICA
Q1 2014 CIRCLES DENOTE
DIFFERENCEFROM Q4 2013
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12014
BRAZIL
PERU
CHILE
COLOMBIA
MEXICO
ARGENTINA
VENEZUELA
106
101
98
93
86
78
71
-4
-1
-1
0
4
-6
8
16 QUARTER 1 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
OPTIMISM GROWS IN THE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICAUnitedArabEmirates(114)andSaudiArabia(102)reportedthehighest
consumerconfidenceindexscoresintheregion,increasingfourand
onepoints,respectively,comparedtofourth-quarter2013.Confidencein
Egyptincreasedmostintheregion,rising11pointsinthefirstquarter
to87.Pakistanincreasedtwopointsto99,andSouthAfricapostedthe
onlyregionalconfidencedeclineoffourpointsto82.
RecessionarysentimentimprovedintheUnitedArabEmirates,where
thepercentageofrespondentswhobelievedtheywereinrecession
droppedfrom44percentinfourth-quarter2013to33percent—the
lowestlevelintheregion.InPakistan,recessionarysentimentdeclined
aswell,falling6percentagepointsto76percent.Conversely,the
percentageofrespondentsfeelingmiredinrecessionincreased9
percentagepointsinSouthAfricato76percent,comparedtofourth-
quarter2013.
Regionaldiscretionaryspendingintentionsincreasedforallcategories
measuredinthefirstquarter,withthebiggestincreasesforholidays/
vacationsandout-of-homeentertainmentrising4and3percentage
points,respectively.Intentionstobuynewclothesandspendonhome
improvementprojectsincreased2percentagepointseach.Thirty-seven
percentputsparecashintosavingsand10percentinvestedinstocks,
increasesof2percentagepointseachinthefirstquarter.Twenty-
twopercentintheregionsaidtheyhadnosparecash,adeclineof3
percentagepointscomparedtofourth-quarter2013.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IN MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
Q1 2014 CIRCLES DENOTEDIFFERENCE FROM Q4 2013
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12014
4
1
2
11
-4
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
SAUDI ARABIA
PAKISTAN
EGYPT
SOUTH AFRICA
114
102
99
87
82
17Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
CONFIDENCE IS MEASURED IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA NewtotheNielsenconsumerconfidencemeasurementinthefirst
quarteristheadditionofthreesub-SaharanAfricanmarkets—Nigeria,
KenyaandGhana.Amobilesurveymethodologywasdeployedtogauge
sentimentinthesecountries,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodology
usedtoreportconsumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsforthe
other60countriesoutlinedinthisreport.Assuch,thesethreesub-
SaharanAfricanmarketsarenotincludedintheglobalorMiddleEast/
Africaaveragesdiscussedthroughoutthisreport.Themobilesurvey
methodologyisaviablerepresentationofconsumersinthesemarkets,
wheremobilepenetrationexceedsonlinepenetration.
18 QUARTER 1 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
Ofthethreecountries,Nigeria’sconsumerconfidencewashighest
withanindexscoreof120inthefirstquarter.Kenyaalsoreportedan
optimistic,above-the-baselinescoreof110,andGhana’sscorewasjust
belowthebaselineat97.MorethanhalfofrespondentsinKenya(57%)
andNigeria(52%)wereoptimisticaboutlocaljobprospectsinthenext
12months,comparedwith42percentinGhana.
“Asseeninotherdevelopingmarkets,consumersinAfricagenerally
haveanextremelypositiveoutlook,whichisencouragingforconsumer
businesseslookingatgrowthinAfrica,”saidDwightWatson,managing
director,Nielsen,sub-SaharanAfrica.“However,withspendon
consumerproductsalreadyaccountingforonaveragejustover50
percentofincome,consumersarecautiousabouttheircurrentabilityto
spend,thereforeproductchoicestomeetconsumers’needsremainsthe
keyopportunity.”
While80percentofNigerianrespondentswereconfidentabouttheir
personalfinances,justunderhalf(49%)believedthatnowwasagood
timetospend.InKenya,69percentofrespondentsbelievedmoney
mattersweregoodorexcellent,and36percentwereconfidentintheir
currentspendingcapacity.InGhana,62percentwereoptimisticabout
theirfinances,and34percentofrespondentswerereadytospend.
Themajorityofrespondentsinthethreecountries(71%inGhana,66%
inKenyaand59%inNigeria)didnothavesparecash.Amongthosewho
didhavediscretionarymoneytospend,savingandspendingintentions
inthethreecountriesshowedsimilarpriorities.Savingwasapriority
for91percentinKenya,83percentinNigeriaand76percentinGhana,
followedbyspendingonhomeimprovementprojects(74%inKenya,
73%inNigeria,64%Ghana).
Otherspendingintentionsinclude:investinginstocks(70%inKenya,
66%inGhana,63%inNigeria),buyingnewtechnologyproducts(48%
inNigeria,40%inKenya,34%inGhana),spendingonout-of-home
entertainment(47%inKenya,44%inNigeria,25%inGhana)and
buyingnewclothes(57%inKenya,40%inNigeria,30%inGhana).
SPARE CASH SPENDING INTENTIONS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
PERCENT PLANNING TO SPEND DISCRETIONARY INCOME ON THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
19Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
SPARE CASH SPENDING INTENTIONS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
GHANA KENYA NIGERIA
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12014BasedonMobileSurveyMethodology
PUTTING INTO SAVINGS RETIREMENT FUNDOUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT
INVESTING IN STOCK/MUTUAL FUNDS
NEW TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS
PAYING DEBTS/CREDIT CARDS/LOANS
HOME IMPROVEMENTS/DECORATING NEW CLOTHES HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS
76% 41% 25%
66% 34% 27%
64% 30% 18%
83% 27% 44%
63% 48% 31%
73% 40% 28%
91% 50% 47%
70% 40% 31%
74% 57% 29%
PERCENT PLANNING TO SPEND DISCRETIONARY INCOME ON THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
20 QUARTER 1 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
Source:InternetWorldStats,June30,2012
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Australia 89%
China 40%
HongKong 75%
India 11%
Indonesia 22%
Japan 80%
Malaysia 61%
NewZealand 88%
Philippines 32%
Singapore 75%
South Korea 83%
Taiwan 75%
Thailand 30%
Vietnam 34%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION MARKET INTERNET
PENETRATION
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Austria 80%
Belgium 81%
Bulgaria 51%
Croatia 71%
CzechRepublic 73%
Denmark 90%
Estonia 78%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Egypt 36%
Pakistan 15%
SaudiArabia 49%
SouthAfrica 17%
UnitedArabEmirates
71%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Canada 83%
UnitedStates 78%
MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION*
Ghana 99%
Kenya 68%
Nigeria 64%
COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
LATIN AMERICAEUROPE
Finland 89%
France 80%
Germany 83%
Greece 53%
Hungary 65%
Ireland 77%
Israel 70%
Italy 58%
Latvia 72%
Lithuania 65%
Netherlands 93%
Norway 97%
Poland 65%
Portugal 55%
Romania 44%
Russia 48%
Serbia 56%
Slovakia 79%
Slovenia 72%
Spain 67%
Sweden 93%
Switzerland 82%
Turkey 46%
UnitedKingdom 84%
Ukraine 34%
Argentina 66%
Brazil 46%
Chile 59%
Colombia 60%
Mexico 37%
Peru 37%
Venezuela 41%
*Basedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulation.Source:CIAWorldFactbook,2012
21Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
ABOUT NIELSEN NielsenHoldingsN.V.(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalinformationand
measurementcompanywithleadingmarketpositionsinmarketing
andconsumerinformation,televisionandothermediameasurement,
onlineintelligenceandmobilemeasurement.Nielsenhasapresencein
approximately100countries,withheadquartersinNewYork,USAand
Diemen,theNetherlands.
Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.
Copyright©2014TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.Nielsenand
theNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACN
Trademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksor
registeredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.14/7664
ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending
IntentionswasconductedFeb.17–March7,2014andpolledmore
than30,000onlineconsumersin60countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,
Europe,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast,AfricaandNorthAmerica.
Thesamplehasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountrybased
onitsInternetusers,andisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternet
consumers.Ithasamarginoferrorof±0.6percent.ThisNielsen
surveyisbasedonlyonthebehaviorofrespondentswithonline
access.Internetpenetrationratesvarybycountry.Nielsenusesa
minimumreportingstandardof60percentInternetpenetrationor
anonlinepopulationof10millionforsurveyinclusion.TheChina
ConsumerConfidenceIndexiscompiledfromaseparatemixed
methodologysurveyamong3,500respondentsinChina.Thesub-
SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudyarecompiledfromaseparate
mobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600respondentsinGhana,Kenya
andNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,whichincludestheGlobal
ConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablishedin2005.