Post on 23-Jul-2020
Connecticut Data: Implications for Higher Education Braden J. Hosch, Ph.D. Connecticut Board of Regents for Higher Education (August 13, 2013)
Overview • Population change
• Population Change, Enrollment,
Completions and Educational Attainment
• Important Indicators • College Readiness • Student Success • Affordability • Innovation and Economic Development • Equity
2
Population Change – United States
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 1900
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
3
Population Change – United States
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 1950
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
4
Population Change – United States
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 1980
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
5
Population Change – United States
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 1990
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
6
Population Change – United States
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 2000
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
7
Population Change – United States
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 2010
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
8
Population Change – United States
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 2020
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
9
Population Change – United States
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 2030
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
10
Population Change – United States
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 2040
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
11
Population Change – United States
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
US Population By Age and Sex, 2050
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
12
Population Change – Connecticut
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 1990
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
13
Population Change – Connecticut
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2000
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
14
Population Change – Connecticut
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2010
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
15
Population Change – Connecticut
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2020
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
16
Population Change – Connecticut
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
0-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980+
Percent of Population
Connecticut Population By Age and Sex, 2030
Men Women
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
17
United States Population Change
U.S. Population Change in U.S. Population
(from 2010)
20-24 70+ 20-24 70+
2010 21,779,480 27,968,034 -- --
2020 21,799,193 36,943,962 19,713 8,975,928
2030 24,191,409 51,711,144 2,411,929 23,743,110
2040 26,408,192 62,249,538 4,628,712 34,281,504
2050 28,171,436 67,004,446 6,391,956 39,036,412
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
18
Connecticut Population Change
Connecticut Population Change in CT Population
(from 2010)
20-24 70+ 20-24 70+
2010 233,040 369,177 -- --
2020 215,023 457,048 -18,017 87,871
2030 198,927 585,871 -34,113 216,694
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
19
Connecticut Population Age 0 and Age 85+ from 1990 to 2011
39,325 49,637
37,318
36,251
87,199
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
100,00019
8019
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
0420
0620
0820
10
Age 0Age 85 +
20 Source: U.S. Census, Intercensal estimates, 1980-89, 1990-1999, 2000-2010 , 2011
Implications of Population Change • Shift in budget priorities from education to
health care
• Shift in mission of higher education to provide continuing education throughout the lifespan
21
CT Public High School Graduates 1970-2023
22
-5,000
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
Publ
ic H
S G
radu
ates
Post
seco
ndar
y H
eadc
ount
Enr
ollm
ent
CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount
23
00
50000
100000
150000
20000019
7019
7319
7619
7919
8219
8519
8819
9119
9419
9720
0020
0320
0620
0920
1220
1520
1820
2120
24
Publ
ic H
S G
radu
ates
Post
seco
ndar
y H
eadc
ount
Enr
ollm
ent
Community-Technical Colleges Connecticut State UniversitiesCharter Oak State College UCONNU.S. Coast Guard Academy Independent InstitutionsActual Public HS Grads Projected Public HS Grads
CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment & HS Graduates
24
-5,000
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000
0
50000
100000
150000
20000019
7019
7319
7619
7919
8219
8519
8819
9119
9419
9720
0020
0320
0620
0920
1220
1520
1820
2120
24
Publ
ic H
S G
radu
ates
Post
seco
ndar
y H
eadc
ount
Enr
ollm
ent
Community-Technical Colleges Connecticut State UniversitiesCharter Oak State College UCONNU.S. Coast Guard Academy Independent InstitutionsActual Public HS Grads Projected Public HS Grads
CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment & HS Graduates (+3 Years)
25
-5000
5000
15000
25000
35000
45000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,00019
7019
7319
7619
7919
8219
8519
8819
9119
9419
9720
0020
0320
0620
0920
1220
1520
1820
2120
24
Publ
ic H
S G
radu
ates
Post
seco
ndar
y H
eadc
ount
Enr
ollm
ent
Community-Technical Colleges Connecticut State UniversitiesCharter Oak State College UCONNU.S. Coast Guard Academy Independent InstitutionsActual Public HS Grads Projected Public HS Grads
CT Undergraduate Fall Headcount Enrollment (Full-time & Part-time)
26
0
50000
100000
150000
20000019
7019
7319
7619
7919
8219
8519
8819
9119
9419
9720
0020
0320
0620
0920
1220
1520
1820
2120
24
Post
seco
ndar
y H
eadc
ount
Enr
ollm
ent
Projected FT & PT Undergraduate Enrollment
Actual Part-Time Undergraduate Enrollment
Actual Full-Time Undergraduate Enrollment
CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment
27
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
0
50000
100000
15000019
7019
7319
7619
7919
8219
8519
8819
9119
9419
9720
0020
0320
0620
0920
1220
1520
1820
2120
24
Und
ergr
adua
te C
ompl
etio
ns
Und
ergr
ad F
TE E
nrol
lmen
t
Actual Undergraduate FTE Enrollment
Projected Undergraduate FTE Enrollment
Undergraduate Completions*
CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment & Completions
28
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
0
50000
100000
15000019
7019
7319
7619
7919
8219
8519
8819
9119
9419
9720
0020
0320
0620
0920
1220
1520
1820
2120
24
Und
ergr
adua
te C
ompl
etio
ns
Und
ergr
ad F
TE E
nrol
lmen
t
Actual Undergraduate Enrollment
Projected Undergraduate Enrollment
Undergraduate Completions*
* Undergraduate certificates counted as 1/3 completion
CT Undergraduate FTE Enrollment & Completions (-2 years)
29
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
0
50000
100000
15000019
7019
7319
7619
7919
8219
8519
8819
9119
9419
9720
0020
0320
0620
0920
1220
1520
1820
2120
24
Und
ergr
adua
te C
ompl
etio
ns
Und
ergr
ad F
TE E
nrol
lmen
t
Actual Undergraduate Enrollment
Projected Undergraduate Enrollment
Undergraduate Completions*
* Undergraduate certificates counted as 1/3 completion
CT Educational Attainment, Ages 25-44 Pop. 25 to 44 years Educational Attainment N Pct Less than 9th grade 26,524 3.0 9th to 12th grade, no diploma 53,218 5.9 High school graduate, GED, or alternative 217,326 24.3 Some college, no degree 171,999 19.2 Associate's degree 68,097 7.6 Bachelor's degree 217,284 24.3 Graduate or professional degree 140,685 15.7
Total 895,133 100.0
Attained Associate's Degree or Higher 426,066 47.6 At least HS diploma, no college degree 389,325 43.5
30 Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 2011, 1-Year Est.
CT High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity
31
Source: Knocking at the College Door (WICHE, 2012)
CT Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity
32
Source: Knocking at the College Door (WICHE, 2012)
Pct A
ssoc
iate
’s or
Hig
her
CT Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity
33
Source: Knocking at the College Door (WICHE, 2012)
Pct A
ssoc
iate
’s or
Hig
her
Undergraduate Completions by Race/Ethnicity
05000
100001500020000250003000035000
White Hispanic or Latino
Black or African American Asian/Pacific Islander
American Indian More Than One Race
Non-Resident Alien Race/Ethnicity Unknown34
*** Race/ethnicity collection and reporting changed in 2010. Subsequent data may not be comparable; interpret with caution
Graduate Student Enrollment
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
IndependentInstitutionsUniversity ofConnecticutState Universities
35
Graduate Student Enrollment
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Part-TimeFull-Time
36
Graduate Degree Completions
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1982
-83
1984
-85
1986
-87
1988
-89
1990
-91
1992
-93
1994
-95
1996
-97
1998
-99
2000
-01
2002
-03
2004
-05
2006
-07
2008
-09
2010
-11
Master's Degrees
Doctoral/FirstProfessional DegreesGraduate Certificates
37
College Readiness CT Community Colleges
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Tenn
esse
eCo
nnec
ticut
*W
est V
irgin
iaHa
wai
iLo
uisia
naM
assa
chus
etts
Mar
ylan
dO
klah
oma
Arizo
naO
hio
Idah
oN
ew M
exic
oFl
orid
aM
issou
riO
rego
nTe
xas
Wyo
min
gIll
inoi
sIn
dian
aW
ashi
ngto
nVi
rgin
iaM
ississ
ippi
Nev
ada
Geor
gia
Colo
rado
Kent
ucky
Nor
th C
arol
ina
Uta
h
Percent of Students Enrolling in Remedial Courses in Public 2-year Institutions
38 Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from entering students in 2006; CT data are from entering students in 2008 reported to CCA in 2013..
Student Success -Time to Degree CT Public Institutions Award/Entry Status Average Years State Rank
Certificate-Seeking
Full-Time 3.4 14 out of 26
Part-Time 5.0 18 out of 26
Associate’s-Seeking
Full-Time 4.3 19 out of 28
Part-Time 5.6 18 out of 28
Bachelor’s-Seeking
Full-Time 4.4* 7 out of 29*
Part-Time 5.2* 8 out of 29*
39 Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from completions in 2007-08; CT data are from 2010-11 completions reported to CCA in 2013.
*Because Connecticut does not capture unit records at the state level for public higher education, these figures may not reflect all credits earned.
Student Success - Credits to Degree CT Public Institutions Award/Entry Status Average Credits State Rank
Certificate-Seeking
Full-Time 77 21 out of 25
Part-Time 70 21 out of 25
Associate’s-Seeking
Full-Time 84 16 out of 28
Part-Time 85 19 out of 28
Bachelor’s-Seeking
Full-Time 125* 2 out of 29*
Part-Time 115* 2 out of 28*
40 Source: Complete College America, Time Is the Enemy (2011). Comparison data are from completions in 2007-08; CT data are from 2010-11 completions reported to CCA in 2013.
*Because Connecticut does not capture unit records at the state level for public higher education, these figures may not reflect all credits earned.
Affordability – Student Charges
41
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Tuiti
on &
Req
uire
d Fe
es as
Pct
of M
HI
Medi
an H
ouse
hold
Inco
me
CT Median Household Income and Tuition + Required Fees for Community Colleges and CT State Universities
Connecticut Median Household Income Connecticut Community CollegesConnecticut State Universities University of Connecticut
State Appropriations & Tuition Revenue per FTE, United States, Constant Dollars
$8,
497
$
8,47
3
$8,
341
$
8,24
4
$8,
028
$
7,58
0
$7,
322
$
7,41
9
$7,
660
$
7,74
1
$8,
029
$
8,29
0
$8,
504
$
8,42
7
$8,
670
$
8,35
2
$7,
713
$
7,19
5
$7,
152
$
7,48
6
$7,
667
$
7,78
1
$7,
273
$
6,72
9
$6,
483
$
5,90
6
$2,
588
$2,
652
$2,
703
$2,
748
$2,
841
$3,
069
$3,
265
$3,
380
$3,
469
$3,
587
$3,
637
$3,
660
$3,
662
$3,
486
$3,
597
$3,
609
$3,
681
$3,
871
$4,
031
$4,
292
$4,
359
$4,
286
$4,
364
$4,
568
$4,
793
$5,
189
$- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000
$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Reve
nue
per F
TE
Educ Approps per FTE NetTuition per FTE42
Source: SHEEO, State Higher Education Finance Report, FY12. Inflation adjusted by Higher Education Cost Index (HECA)
State Appropriations & Tuition Revenue per FTE, Connecticut, Constant Dollars
$11
,375
$
12,1
63
$12
,693
$
12,8
62
$12
,748
$
11,9
38
$9,
493
$
10,9
66
$10
,935
$
11,6
12
$11
,737
$
12,4
11
$12
,688
$
13,1
90
$12
,664
$
12,4
62
$11
,715
$
10,8
97
$10
,817
$
10,8
81
$11
,131
$
11,5
44
$10
,867
$
10,8
74
$10
,204
$
9,01
6
$2,
896
$3,
144
$3,
190
$3,
555
$3,
865
$4,
426
$4,
992
$5,
155
$5,
183
$5,
608
$5,
794
$5,
786
$5,
802
$5,
642
$5,
950
$5,
911
$6,
210
$6,
862
$7,
162
$7,
413
$7,
344
$7,
502
$7,
642
$7,
569
$8,
025
$8,
168
$- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000
$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Reve
nue
per F
TE
Educ Approps per FTE NetTuition per FTE43
Source: SHEEO, State Higher Education Finance Report, FY12. Inflation adjusted by Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA)
Distance Learning
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
U.S
.
CT
Perc
ent i
n An
y D
ista
nce
Ed
PRELIMINARY State Estimates of Undergraduates Enrolled in Any Distance Education (Fall 2012)
44
Distance Learning
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
U.S
.
CT
Perc
ent i
n An
y D
ista
nce
Ed
PRELIMINARY State Estimates of Graduate Students Enrolled in Any Distance Education (Fall 2012)
45
Closing Observations • Fewer 18-24 year olds
• Increased competition • Shift to serving older students • Downward pressure on revenues
• Historical patterns of success will not meet attainment goals (Obama Administration, Lumina)
• Contextual Opportunities • College Readiness • Student Success • Affordability / sustainable financing model • Innovative models for learning & teaching • Equity in outcomes 46