Transcript of Conflicts 2030
- 1. Conflicts 2030 Factors and Locations World Political and
Economic Geography Metropolitan University Prague 2013 Martin
Kolmhofer kolmhofer@cee-portal.at
- 2. 44 % of the world population will live in Asia and Africa 8
billion people (vs 7 billion people now)
- 3. Countries with the biggest energy resources (oil, gas and
coal)
- 4. In 2030 two thirds of all oil and gas exports will come from
the Gulf States + Iraq + Iran
- 5. Save access and safe transport routes will be of high
strategic importance for energy importing countries
- 6. The Strait of Hormuz , is a narrow, strategically important
strait between the Gulf of Oman in the southeast and the Persian
Gulf. It is estimated that by 2030 one third of all oil exports
will pass through this strait.
- 7. TheFifth
FleetoftheUnitedStatesNavyisresponsiblefornavalforcesin
thePersianGulf,RedSea,ArabianSea,andcoastoffEastAfricaasfarsouthas
Kenya.
- 8. China? Will keep being dependent on oil from the Persian
Gulf. To reduce the risks caused by the long sea route China is
building a deep-sea port situated at Gwadar in Pakistan.
- 9. Proposed trans-Himalayan pipe would link Pakistan's
deepwater port of Gwadar with China's remote western regions. Oil
tankers would no longer have to pass the straits of Malacca and
Formosa.
- 10. Siberia could cause conflicts between China and Russia
emigration from northeastern Chinese provinces to Siberia
(especially in the area of Irkutsk many natural resources)
- 11. The Senkaku Islands (Chinese: Diaoyu Islands) are a group
of uninhabited islands controlled by Japan in the East China Sea.
The islands are an issue in foreign relations between Japan and
China because of oil and gas resources
- 12. Spratly Islands and Paracel Islands in the South China Sea:
Disputed between Vietnam and China
- 13. Other mineral resources (Copper, Iron, Gold, Bauxite) are
limited to very few locations. China owns over 50 % of rare earth
elements (very important for communication technology). Slashing
their exports of rare-earth metals is all about moving Chinese
manufacturers up the supply chain, so they can sell valuable
finished goods to the world rather than lowly raw materials. As a
result of the increased demand and tightening restrictions on
exports of the metals from China, some countries are stockpiling
rare earth resources.
- 14. In 2030 about 50 % of the worlds population will live in
areas where water is scarce
- 15. Example: Nile rises in Ethiopia. Ethiopia wants to build a
big dam on the border to Sudan. Concerns from down stream countries
Sudan and Egypt that construction of the massive dam project will
reduce water flow.
- 16. Melting of glaciers in the Himalaya could cause freshwater
shortage in neighboring countries
- 17. Shortage of fertile soil due to increase in world
population. Currently China, Japan, South Korea and Saudi Arabia
are already buying or renting land.
- 18. Example Mozambique: 20 % of all fertile soil was sold or
rent to other countries since 2000 (View details at
landportal.info)
- 19. The Northwest Passage was, again, free of ice in summer
2011 and the polar region could be unfrozen in just 30 years
- 20. Consequence: The sea route between Europe and Asia will get
almost 4000 km shorter Northwest Passage: sea route through the
Arctic Ocean, along the northern coast of North America via
waterways amidst the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, connecting the
Atlantic and Pacific Oceans Northeast Passage: sea route running
along the Russian Arctic coast from Murmansk on the Barents Sea,
along Siberia, to the Bering Strait and Far East
- 21. Melting of the arctic ice gives also access to new
resources Result: conflicting territorial claims
- 22. Territorial waters: The World's EEZs (Exclusive Economic
Zones) Generally, a state's EEZ extends to a distance of 200 miles
(370 km) out from its coastal line.
- 23. The Russian Flag planted on the Arctic Seabed. Canada sees
it as a direct violation of Canadian Waters.