Communications Strategies and Challenges

Before, During and After Severe Weather

How the National Weather Service is Improving Public Information

2020 Michigan’s Statewide Interoperable Communications Conference

Jim Maczko

NOAA National Weather Service

Our Current SessionAgenda As of February 6, 2020 ☺

Our Current Session

Longest Title on the Agenda!

19 Words

6 Words with 3 or more syllables

127 characters with no spaces

144 characters with spaces

Agenda As of February 6, 2020 ☺

Shortest and Best TitleAgenda As of February 6, 2020 ☺

EveryoneKnows…

Meteorologists

Can Be Wrong ALL THE TIMEand Keep Their Jobs

The Perfect Answer Does Not Exist

The Perfect Answer Does Not Exist

The Perfect Answer Does Not Exist

EveryoneAlso Knows…

You Can AlwaysCount on Scientists to…

Communicate Effectively“Blah Blah Big Word. Blah Blah Bigger Word.

Blah Blah Blah Biggest Word.”

“Let’s Move On”

Over-Explain EVERYTHING!

Scientists Tend To…

Live Inside Our Own Bubble

Believe Everyone Shares Our Passion

Need Structure & Rules

Meteorologists - Need of Structure & Rules

Watch, Warning, Advisories

Helped The National Weather Service Build

100 + Ways to SayWatch Out! or Take Action!

Specific Criteria for Each ProductX amount of snow or X mph winds

Black and White Decision PointsNot Based on Impacts of Weather

Meteorologists – OVER-Explain Everything

System relative isentropic ascent up the 700-600mb extension of

sloped baroclinic zone has led to persistent light snow and haze

from roughly the DTW airfield back to the west over Southwest

Michigan. Model data shows higher theta e content feeding up

this frontal surface will be stripped out to the east. As a result

should see a diminishing trend to already light snow activity

during the remainder of the morning hours.

We Usually Lead With the WHY of Weather

“I’m Glad

Everyone Got It”

“Let’s Move On”

Meteorologists – OVER-Explain Everything

System relative isentropic ascent up the 700-600mb extension of

sloped baroclinic zone has led to persistent light snow and haze

from roughly the DTW airfield back to the west over Southwest

Michigan. Model data shows higher theta e content feeding up

this frontal surface will be stripped out to the east. As a result

should see a diminishing trend to already light snow activity

during the remainder of the morning hours.

We Usually Lead With the WHY of Weather

“I’m Glad

Everyone Got It”

“Let’s Move On”

Meteorologists – Live Inside Our Own Bubble

Traditionally We Only Talk and Listen to Ourselves

“People Don’t Take

TORNADO WARNING seriously”

“Let’s Create

TORNADO WARNING EMERGENCIES”NWSWeather

Weenies

NWS

NWS

TV Weather

Universities

NWS

NOTE: YES!!! Meteorologists Know Their Bubble is a CLOUD!

Meteorologists – Believe Everyone Shares Our Passion

“I’m Glad

Everyone Got It”

“Let’s Move On”

And They Like When We OVER-Complicate Things

When Your System Has Been Around Forever?

So How Do You Adapt Communication

Think Communication is Working Perfectly?

And When So Many Inside Your Bubble

A well-oiled machine since 1870

You Need a Game Changer (or several)

Deepwater Horizon

Light Switch Moments to Shake Your Core

NWS Not Known to Many People, PartnersWhat TV Station Do You Work For?

Partly Cloudy, 30% Chance of RainDoesn’t Mean Squat to Anyone

Severe Weather Isn’t Just ThunderstormsAll Hazardous Weather = Severe Weather

Needs are What, When, WhereNo One Really Needs WHY Weather happens

Realized the Need to Adapt - Learn - Grow

Weather-Ready Nation

Refocus & Better Meet the Mission

& Build a Weather-Ready Nation

To Help Communities Become…

✓ Ready ✓ Responsive ✓Resilient

To Increasing Vulnerabilities from Extreme Weather, Water, Climate Events, Environmental Hazards

Catalyst for Bigger Change

Public Law 115-25 - 115th Congress (April 18, 2017)

Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017

Defined Core Partners And Support Services

Emergency Management

CommunityGovernment Partners

Water Resource

ManagementElectronic Media

Where Does the Weather Service Fit?

Mitigation

Prevention

Preparedness

Response

Recovery

Traditionally Mostly in ResponseSome Preparedness

Maybe Recovery Too (though we weren’t aware)

Warnings and 7-day Forecasts

Focused on Weather Leading Up to the Event ‘Bang’

Our Storm Reports, Summaries Serving Only Us

Now and The Future - Active in AllWith Service to Partner Needs Above Our Own

Understand and Become Emergency Management

Evolution in Storm Survey Methods

Traditional Approach - For Us, By Us

Where We Want, When We Want

May or May Not Have Told Local EM - EVER

Media Gets Info First – Local EM Finds Out Whenever, However

Now and The Future - Partner with EM, Community

Mostly Where/When EMs Need and Ask, Sometimes Where We Want

Always Inform EM Before Heading Out - Keep EM Updated Throughout

Media Gets Info After EMs – Coordinated Messaging, Public Information

Plain Language + Simple Graphics

What, Where, When FocusKeeping the Why To Ourselves

Delivered Before Decisions Are MadeInstead of When Model Data Comes In

Recovery Weather & ImpactsSupporting As We Get Back to Normal

Changing How We Describe Weather

Our Current Water Situation

Learning to Relate and Communicate

Great Lakes Drainage Record High Water Levels

Changing How We Describe Weather

SAY: The Sponge Is FullOld: Total Soil Saturation

SAY: The Pipes Are Nearly FullOld: River System is at Max Capacity

SAY: The Bathtub is FullOld: Great Lakes are at Record Levels

Learning to Relate and Communicate

Changing How We Describe Weather

SAY: Draining the Tub Takes TimeOld: Streamflow to the Oceans is a Lengthy Process

SAY: The Faucet Won’t Shut OffOld: Precipitation Pattern Abnormally Active

Learning to Relate and Communicate

Leverage Emerging Technology

Wireless Emergency Alerts 2012

Targeted Phones

Hit People Where They Are At!

Biggest Advancement in Weather

Warnings Since NOAA Weather Radio

Tornado Warning

Flash Flood Warning

Blizzard Warning

Ice Storm Warning

Tsunami Warning

Emerging Technology – Wireless Alerts

Tornado Warning

Flash Flood Warning

Blizzard Warning

Ice Storm Warning

Tsunami WarningFebruary 7, 2013: 45 Hours Long

Emerging Technology – Wireless Alerts

Tornado Warning

Flash Flood Warning

Blizzard Warning

Ice Storm Warning

Tsunami WarningFebruary 7, 2013: 45 Hours Long

Emerging Technology – Wireless Alerts

Tornado Warning

Flash Flood Warning

Snow Squall Warning

Tsunami Warning

Fall 2018 Debut

Meant for People on Major Roads/Highways

Emerging Technology – Wireless Alerts

Tornado Warning

Flash Flood Warning

Snow Squall Warning

Tsunami Warning

Jan 8, 2020

NWS Mt Holly – 12 Warnings

Total Population Warned: 9.5 Million

One Warning For: 2.5 Million People

? ? ?

Emerging Technology – Wireless Alerts

Tornado Warning

Flash Flood Warning (NWS saying 80% reduction of WEA 2020 and beyond)

Snow Squall Warning (will it stay or will it go?)

Severe Thunderstorm Warning (2020 or 2021?)

Tsunami Warning

More Changes to Come

The Perfect Answer Does Not Exist

The Perfect Answer Does Not Exist

The Perfect Answer Does Not Exist

Thank You!

Safe Travels!