Post on 06-Jul-2020
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Comments on the Muskrat Falls Reference
Presentation to the Public Utilities Board of Newfoundland and Labrador
Philip Raphals
For Grand Riverkeeper Labrador Inc.
February 23, 2012
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Optimality
• « How did you ensure that ... you were dealing with the optimal scenario under each one? » > Technical optimization vs. planning processes
> Iterative process seeking robust solutions
> Real time (evolutive) versus planning exercise
> Avoiding irrevocable choices that would turn out badly in certain possible futures
> Scenario versus plan
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PPA payment options
• "Does the 2035 ratepayer have to pay more so that the 2017 ratepayer can pay less?" > Nominal LUECs vs. escalating prices
> Same present value, but different reality
> Consumers unlikely to prefer escalating prices
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PPA vs cos • Simulate annual costs for Muskrat
Falls under COS > Higher than PPA in early years
> Drastically lower in later years
• Prices post 2067 > PPA: maintaining 2067 price levels
($400/MWh) ~ windfall profits
> COS: continue to decline « $20/MWh)
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CDM
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> model COM like generation
> End-use modelling
_ Nalcor's approach > Integrate into load forecast through technological change
variable
> No mesure-by-mesure or program-by-program analysis
_ Objectives to date not met
_ Sensitivities > Far less than Marbek scenarios
> At low demand (= high COM) scenarios, CPW preference for Muskrat drastically reduced
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Fuel price forecasts Figm'e A-9: "Vorlc1 Oil PIices: History and Forecast
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Wind power assessment
• 2004 NLH study > Sole source for Strategist inputs
> 80 MW limits primarily economic • Based on minimizing spill
• Fails to take into account cost of wind, net of curtailment or spills
> « preliminary »
> Government RFP shows that higher penetration remains an objective
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Conclusions \
• Reference question > Verify that the costs attributed to each scenario are
correct?
> Verify that each scenario makes sense?
• Analyses of MHI and others > Results highly dependent on assumptions
> Great uncertainties
> Little confidence that the Isolated Island scenario would play out as defined
• If M uskrat Falls does not go forward > planning process will continue
> May lead to solutions very different from liS
M~;,;::~;~:I~;: 'J2 • Thus Reference Question largely academic 9 'I!'('@ClHluehfl '01.0fl
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