Post on 27-Mar-2015
Climate Risk Management: Science, Institutions and
Society
Asian Disaster Preparedness Center
Presentation Outline
• Climate and Society Interaction- current status
• Climate Change- Emerging trends• Socio-Economic Systems-Emerging
trends• Climate Risk Management- CCA and DRR
Integration framework• Take Home Points• Exercise
Monsoon Aberration 2002- IndiaDrought 2002
Prayers for Rain
Though Seasonal total isThough Seasonal total isalmost same ,1973 was a almost same ,1973 was a Drought year- India Drought year- India (Semi-arid zone)(Semi-arid zone)
Prediction of dry and wet Prediction of dry and wet spells of in the scale ofspells of in the scale of 20-25 days could assist 20-25 days could assist Critical operational planning Critical operational planning In agricultureIn agriculture
Monsoon - Inter-seasonal Variability
Long-Term Decadal Climate Variability
Climate Effects of El Nino
El Niño impact on rice production, Philippines
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Year
Pal
ay P
rodu
ctio
n ( x
100
0 M
T)
El Nino
El Nino
El Nino
El Nino
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Imp
or
(ju
ta t
on
)
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
34.0
Pro
du
ks
i be
ras
(juta
ton
)
Banned using 57 pesticides
Release of HY var., increase of rice price
Withdraw subsidy for pesticide
El-Nino
Release of HY var. and extensification of planting area to plantation areas
El-Nino
El-Nino
Improve technology and extensification
Withdraw subsidy, political crisis
Crash program for irrigation, increase of rice price, upland rice
Imp
ort
(M
illio
n T
on
nes
)R
ice Pro
du
ction
(Mill io
n T
on
nes)
National Rice Production
El Niño impact on rice production, Indonesia
Com
mun
ity
leve
l sup
port
Coping mechanisms
NGO’s
Friends, neighbor's
and relatives
Local Government
Hou
seho
ld le
vel a
djus
tmen
ts
Household and community level
Non-agricultural
adjustments
Agricultural adjustments
Foreign aid
Beyond community level
National Government
Civil society organizations
Climate and society
Drought Shocks and Policy Response- India
1877
Drought Events
Major Policy Interventions
Famine Codes
1965
Green Revolution and FCI
Scarcity Relief
1972
Employment Generation Programmes
Drought Relief
1979
ContingencyCropPlan
DroughtManagement
1987
WatershedApproach
WaterManagement
2002? ? ? ?
Each round represent death of one million people
Each round represent around fifty million people affected
Drought Impacts on Agricultural
Production – India
Monsoon Rainfall % Deviation from Normal
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
%
% Deviation
+20
-20 1965
ncfc
1972 1979 19871951 2002
GDP (1993-94 Prices)
% Annual Change
1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01
Year
%
GDP
+20
-201965
ncfc
19791987
1951
1972
2002
Agricultural Production% Annual Change
1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01
Year
%
Agr.Prodn.
+20
-20
ncfc
1979
19871951 1972
20021965
In India, national level resilience increased, however house hold vulnerability remains
The long-term context for contemporary warming
2003 European heat wave may have killed 20,000Timely and accurate forecastPoor emergency preparedness
Climate Change, Variability and extremes
Source: WMO
Number of flood events by continent and decade since 1950
Sources: P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, H.-R. Chang, (2005) Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science.
Change in the number and percentage of hurricanes in categories 4 and 5 for the 15-year periods 1975–1989 and 1990–2004 for the different ocean basins
Debate on cyclic effect or global warming ?
Developing Countries are Hit the Hardest…
(Source: CRED)
A Growing population……
• The world population reaches 6.66 billions (2008)
• +80 millions /year,
• (equ. to the population of an additional country the size of Germany or Vietnam)
• In 2050 we will be at least 9 billions
Urban population (%)
Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004
Urban world population
Sources: UNEP/GEO 2004
31.6% of urban population is living in slums
NASA, DSMP
Homo Sapiens: an urban species
Climate Forecasting Applications -
Bangladesh Changes in Cropping Pattern-Increasing Exposure to weather risks
Aez 3: Tista MeanderFloodplain
Rangpur, Panchagarh,Dinajpur, Bogra,Jaipurhat,(small part),Naogaon (small part) andRajshahi (small part)
Rabi Crop - Aus/Jute-F Wheat-Aus/Jute-FMustard-Aus/Jute-FVeg (R)-Aus/Jute-FOnion/Garlic-Jute-F
Forecast-Aus/Jute-T.Aman
Wheat-Aus/Jute-T.AmanPotato-Jute-T.AmanTobacco-T.Aus-T.AmanWheat-Forecast-T.AmanBoro-Forecast-T.Aman
Forecast-B.Aman Boro-DW T.Aman
Crop ZonesCrop Zones 1960’s1960’s 1990’s1990’s
Crop intensification exposes the system to multiple hazards Eg. Hazard calendar for Bangladesh
RABI KHARIF I KHARIF II RABI Disasters J F M A M J J A S O N D
Early floods Mid floods Late floods Flash floods Local floods/inundation False on-set of rains Early season drought Mid season drought Terminal drought Seasonal drought Hail storms North Westerly High wind velocity High temperature Low temperature
Food demand and hunger: • The World Food Summit (WFS) estimated that approximately
840 million people in developing countries subsisted on diets that are deficient in calories
• 96% of these food insecure people suffer from chronic deficiencies; more than 25% of children under age 5 in developing countries are malnourished
• Significant population experience temporary energy shortfalls caused by natural disasters of hydro-meteorological origin
• Reducing the undernourished people to halve by the year 2015 is a challenge
Emerging food insecurity- Rice crisis in 2008
Drought reduction in wheat production in Australia
Snow storm in China
reduction in grain production
India withholding rice stocks
Vietnam withholding rice
stocks
International market price shoots up to 40%
Rice price in Thailand shoots up in response to global demand leading to prison riots and theft of rice in farms
Decreasing availability of freshwater for Human Use
Year Population (millions)
Average annual renewable global water resources
(km3)
Potential water
availability (m3/yr)
1960 3039.7 44800 17532
1980 4454.3 44800 10058
2000 6079.0 44800 7370
2025 7835.9 44800 5717
(Source: Marios, 2004)
Understanding Climate Variability and ChangeRecent Advancement in Prediction and Monitoring Science
o Generation of skill-full, reliable and location specific seasonal climate forecasts through statistical and dynamical schemes
o Development of real-time monitoring systems to track the nature of causes and impacts (eg. Satellite meteorology and remote sensing techniques)
o Development of climate change scenarios through Global Circulation Models (GCMs)
Advancement in Risk Management Technologies
• New generation system analysis tools for climate risk analysis, impact assessment and tailoring alternate management/adaptation practices (eg. models for crops and eco-system dynamics)
• Economic models and decision analysis tools to guide in managing risks (eg. models for resource optimization)
• Development of communication and extension technologies (eg. communicating probabilistic climate information)
Potential & Actual Utilization of Climate Information Products
Forecast Users
Forecast Providers
Actual
Potential
Climate Risk Management- Challenges
• Risk Communication– Dealing with uncertainties – Decision research and stakeholder involvement – Integrating climate information into decision making
process
• ADPC experience in risk communication will be shared
Stakeholders Issues Lead Time Planning for early Aus paddy and also late Boro and transplanted Aman paddy Seasonal Forecastharvesting of crops ( I.e. Boro, Aman, Jute) 2 weeks
Planning for culture fisheries
Seasonal Forecast/ 2 Weeks
For preparing trap and protect pond by netting 1 weeks
Labourers Agricultural employment 2 weeksBoatmen Homesteads security 2 weeksTraders Market price, transportation 1 weekWomen managing homesteads 1 week
Farmers
Fishermen
Experiences in generating demand driven climate informationEg. Understanding decision options and lead time requirements of end users
(Bangladesh)
Type of climate information Level of uncertainty
Past climate information
Climate information monitoring (observed)
+
24-48 Hours weather forecast information
++
5-7 day forecast information +++
Climate forecast information (one month and beyond) (some forecast skill)
++++
Climate change scenario information (distant future)
+++++++++++++
Part 2
Graduated Response to Disaster Risks Graduated Response to Disaster Risks
Seasonal Forecast ( 3-6 months)
Strategic Decisions
20-21 Days Forecasts
Tactical Decision
5-7 days Forecasts
ApplicationsPlanning
Climate Forecast
Applications
• Reduced vulnerability to climate risks
• Minimize losses
• Maximize benefits of good climate
CFA
ProjectInitiation
Research Utilization of Research Products
Climate Forecast Applications Process
Partnership development
Selection of demonstra-tion sites
Socio- economic problem formulation, impact analysis
Analysis of institutional landscape, decision and policy models
Obtain climate information
Analysis of variability and predictability
Regional climate modeling
Down-scaling
Retrospective analysis on performance of decision system
Decision system
Formulate policy changes for climate information utilization
Retrospective analysis on adoption of new policies
Experimen-tal uptake
Capacity building for upscaling
Climate Forecast Applications The need:
Climate forecast information that: is localized
timely
in easily understandable language meets end user needs
The issues:
Capacity to generate the localized information
Experience in communicating probabilistic scientific information for practical use by end users
Early Warning Information
Products
Providing climate outlook
Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook
Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios
Communication on farmers responses/ feedback
End-to-end climate information and application system
Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: Indonesia
Directorate of Plant Protection
IPB
Provision of climate outlook
BMG
Translation of climate outlook
into impact outlook
Indramayu Agriculture Office
Conversion of impact outlook
into crop management
strategies
Dissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of
farmers response
Climate Forecast Applications Institutional mechanism: Philippines
GLOBAL CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS
Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesRainfall Anomalies
Temperature Anomalies
CAB/ PAGASA/ DOST
Analysis / Downscaling techniques / Impact assessment procedures /
Forum Discussion
Tailored Local Climate Forecasts / Advisories (I loilo)
CLIMATE PATTERNS TRENDS
Near-real-time Data
HISTORICAL DATA AND INFORMATION
Episodic Events Documents
Dumangas Agromet Station
TWG CLIMATE FORUM
Prov’l Agricultural Officer Municipal Agricultural Officers
NIA Region VI Dumangas Agromet Station Officer
Farmers Reps. Local Irrigation System Office
IMPACTS / DECISION OUTLOOKS / ADVISORIES
FARMERS
Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Outlooks Outlooks and Advisories for the Endand Advisories for the End--User Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, IloiloUser Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, Iloilo
Climate Forecast application: Institutional linkages- Bangladesh
Climate, Disasters and Society
BMD
Forecast development and Application technology CFAN/ADPC
Agro met translationFFWC/BWDB Discharge translation
IWM
DMB, DAE
communication
End users
CEGIS, ADPC, CARE
CEGIS, ADPC, CARE
Climate forecastADPC /CEGIS
Way forward….
Practical action for institutionalizing climate change adaptation
Source: WRI, 2007
Adapting Climate Risk Management
• Manage current climate extremes as a way forward to manage future climate change
• Detect observable climate change trends• Confirm observable trends with climate change models• Downscale and provide locally usable climate information • Establish institutional partnership with climate information
providers and users• Community based climate risk management programes
grounded by adopting both Top Down and Bottom Up approaches.
Take Home Points• Climate Risk is a Development issue.
• Climate Change- Strong evidences and New challenges.
• Climate Risk Management framework- Could be one of the practical Adaptation tools to deal with Uncertainties.
• Adaptation projects and programes could be evolved and implemented by adopting Climate Risk Management frameworks.
.
EXERCISE
Climate Risk =
Climate hazard x Vulnerability
Management
What is climate risk?
Climate Risk =
Climate hazard x Vulnerability
Management
What is climate risk?
Climate Risk =
Climate hazard x Vulnerability
Management
What is climate risk?
Climate Risk =
Climate hazard x Vulnerability
Management
What is climate risk?
Climate and its impacts (Assessment framework)
Hazard agent characteristics Physical impacts Social impacts
Hazard mitigation practices
Emergency preparedness
practices
Extra- community assistance
Community recovery resources
Country Hazard Vulnerability Management Climate risk
Australia 1 1 9 0.1
Thailand 2 2 5 0.8
Vietnam 5 4 4 5
Philippines 9 3 6 6.5
Cambodia 1 5 1 5
Bangladesh 9 6 7 7.7
Group Work (1.5 hours)
1. Form a group (UN agencies, country groups, NGOs)
2. Rank the level of risk in your region/country/village
3. Given the ranking, what kind of risk management options
would you recommend?