L. Andrew Bollinger

PhD studentInfrastructure Systems & Services DepartmentFaculty of Technology, Policy & ManagementTU Delft

1 March 2012

Climate policy

INCAH

Intervention

Impact

Intervention

Impact

Effective policy?

The challenge of complexity

Complexity

Intervention

Impact

Multi-level relationships

Feedback loops

Nonlinearity

Irrational actors

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme

Image source: Z.H. Feng, et al. Carbon price volatility: Evidence from EU ETS. Applied Energy 88 (2011) 590–598.

- The Wall Street Journal, 2010

• High volatility• Price crashes• Gaming• Windfall profits

Climate policyHow can we bridge the gap between intervention and impact?

?Intervention

Impact

Our approach

1. Socio-technical systems

The European electricity network The European “Facebook” network

Image source: http://www.r-bloggers.com/graphics-and-statistics-the-facebook-map/

1. Socio-technical systems

2. Complex adaptive systems

Emergence of a starling flock

Image source: http://www.amusingplanet.com/2011/11/acrobatic-display-of-starling.html

Our approach

Emergence of a solar PV infrastructure http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcpBz7qri1U

1. Socio-technical systems

2. Complex adaptive systems3. Agent-based modeling

Modeling the flocking of birds Modeling the transition to a low carbon power sector

Our approach

An example – climate change mitigation policy

The question:Which policies can enable a transition to low carbon electricity generation?

The policies:1. Emissions trading scheme

2. Carbon taxation scheme

3. No intervention

The question:Which carbon policy/ies can enable a transition to low carbon electricity generation?

The policies:1. Emissions trading scheme

2. Carbon taxation scheme

3. No intervention

Results:• Price uncertainty can be a major deterrent to investment in low-carbon

generation technologies• A carbon tax sends a much clearer and more predictable signal to

investors

An example – climate change mitigation policy

An example – infrastructure adaptation to climate change

The question:How can we support the development of climate resilient electricity infrastructures?

(1) De Groot, 2006(2) Wilbanks, et al, 2008(3) Rothstein and Halbig, 2010(4) Bresser, et al, 2005

The question:How can we support the development of climate resilient electricity infrastructures?

An example – climate change adaptation policy

Uncertainty: • Climate change uncertainty• Socio-economic uncertainty• Technological uncertainty• …

The question:How can we support the development of climate resilient electricity infrastructures?

The approach:• Exploratory modeling - expose the modeled system to a large range of

possible futures• Seek robust policies, and policies that hedge against the worst

possible consequences.• Identify sufficient solutions and understand key dynamics, e.g. tipping

points

An example – climate change adaptation policy

The question:How can we combine data from different sources, collaboratively upgrade it and make it openly available?

Collaborative data cultivation

Enipedia.tudelft.nl – a collaborative platform for the cultivation of energy and industry data

Collaboration

• We can’t navigate complexity on our own

Collaboration

• We can’t navigate complexity on our own• We need to bring together data, e.g. about

sea-level rise, extreme weather and infrastructures.

TU Delft Climate Institute

Thank you