Post on 22-Dec-2015
Climate Impacts on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River Basin
James BattinKrista BartzMary Ruckelshaus Hiroo ImakiMatthew WileyElizabeth KorbRichard Palmer
NOAANorthwest Fisheries Science Center
University of WashingtonCivil & Environmental Engineering
Climate Science in the Public Interest
1999: Seven salmon Ecologically Sensitive Units (ESUs) are listed as “threatened” under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA).
1998 -1999 Washington legislature passed the Salmon Recovery Act created watershed planning process to identify recovery actions
2000: The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) convened the Puget Sound Technical Recovery Team (TRT) to develop delisting criteria and provide technical guidance for recovery planning
Background
Local Evidence of Climate Change Declining snowpack
Shifts in timing of runoff
Declining trend on overall runoff volume
Evidence of Climate Change
Seasonal trends – by stationTrends in average daily temperature (1949-2002)
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Ken
t
Eve
rett
Mo
nro
e
Sta
rtu
p
Sea
Tac
Sn
oq
ual
mie
Lan
dsb
urg
Dar
rin
gto
n
McM
illi
n
Bu
ckle
y
Pal
mer
Mu
dM
t
Ced
ar
Lo
ng
mir
e
Sta
mp
ede
Par
adis
e
Rat
e o
f ch
ang
e in
deg
rees
(C)
per
dec
ade
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
stat
ion
ele
vati
on
(m
)
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
Trends in total seasonal precipitation (1949-2002)
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
Ken
t
Eve
rett
Mo
nro
e
Sta
rtu
p
Sea
Tac
Sn
oq
ual
mie
Lan
dsb
urg
Dar
rin
gto
n
McM
illi
n
Bu
ckle
y
Pal
mer
Mu
dM
t
Ced
ar
Lo
ng
mir
e
Sta
mp
ede
Par
adis
e
Rat
e o
f ch
ang
e in
mm
per
dec
ade
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
stat
ion
ele
vati
on
(m
)
Winter
Spring
Summer
Autumn
stream flow & stream temperature
Land Cover & Land Form
Data
Climate Model(GFDL, Hadley)
Hydrology Model(DHSVM)
air temperature & precipitation
Salmon Pop. Model(SHIRAZ)
Salmon Abundance
PredictedAtmospheric
CO2
Habitat Capacity
2025
2050
2025
2050
Results
Winter stream flows increase
Summer stream flows decrease
Stream temperatures rise
No Change in Land Use20502025
Results
Winter stream flows increase
Summer stream flows decrease
Stream temperatures rise
No Change in Land Use20502025
Results
Winter stream flows increase
Summer stream flows decrease
Stream temperatures rise
No Change in Land Use20502025
Climate and Landcover Impacts on Chinook Salmon
Climate and Landcover Impacts on Chinook Salmon
Conclusions
The projected climate change scenarios have a profoundly negative impact on Snohomish basin Chinook salmon populations.
Restoration efforts can offset some of these impacts
Conclusions
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2000 2025 2050
Wild
Sp
aw
ne
rs
No Restoration
Restoration
Totals using GFDL based Climate information
Totals using HadCM3 based Climate information
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2000 2025 2050
Wild
Sp
aw
ne
rsNo Restoration
Restoration
Caveats GFDL is a more extreme climate scenario. Both
models are on the warmer side of the newest IPCC projections.
Timing of climate change is uncertain.
Salmon harvest, hatchery operations, and ocean conditions were all held constant.
Climate Impacts on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River Basin
James BattinKrista BartzMary Ruckelshaus Hiroo ImakiMatthew WileyElizabeth KorbRichard Palmer
NOAANorthwest Fisheries Science Center
University of WashingtonCivil & Environmental Engineering
Climate Science in the Public Interest