CLIMATE CHANGES AND MOUNTAINS

Giovanni Kappenberger

MeteoSwiss

CH-6605 Locarno Monti

Switzerland

Roma, November 16th 2005

CLIMATE CHANGES AND MOUNTAINS

Glaciers:Indicators ofclimatic changes

1. ARCTIC2. ALPS3. HIMALAYA

Paradies Glacier and Adula GR/TI-Switzerland, 1930 A.Gansser and 2001 G.Kappenberger

1. ARCTICCoburg Island and Pond Inlet, CA

1975

next picture

1975

Coburg Island, North Water, CDN

Coburg IslandLaika Ice cap

LANDSAT

Laika ice cap and Laika glacier, 1971

Laika Glacier 2005, and 1971

Earth-google, 2005Laika Glacier under a thin Ac layer

Laika Glacier 2005 and before, in 1971

Earth-google, 2005

Coast line

Pond Inlet, summer precipitation

Pond Inlet, summer precipitation (May-September)

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1976

1979

1982

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1991

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2003

mm

Mising coloumn = missing data

Pond Inlet, summer temperature

Pond Inlet, summer temperatures (June-August) 1976-2004

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Mean summer max temp Mean summer mean temp Mean summer min temp

Consequences of a warming Arctic? Numerous!

2. ALPSBasodino glacier, mass balance

palina

1

2fascia

345

Basodino glacier, mass balance 1992-2005

Ghiacciaio Basodino - Mass balance

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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

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ater

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Accum. Ablat. Balance

Basodino glacier /Cumulated mass balance

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1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

cm W

ater

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winter (blue) summer (red) and yearly mass balance

-3 m water eq.

Cumulated mass balance

Athmospheric summer warming over Milan

Somma gradi positivi700 hPa Milano, V-IX

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195

41

955

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961

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In half a century the 5 summer months, May to September, show an increasing sum of positive temperature values at 700 hPa from about 300 to 450 degrees.

This correspondsto 30 degrees a month, or one degree a day.

- Climbing of zero degree line: 150 to 200 m

Temperature trend in the Swiss Alps, Säntis 2500 m

Time-hight section of relative decadal Swiss snow day trends in %/year

SNOW TREND

Blue: positive trends, red: negative trends.

Filled circles with black border show a significant trend.

Scherrer 2004

www.meteoswiss.ch

Loss of snow and glaciers, what can we do?

Andermatt

Verbier

Flood in the Alps in August 2005

During the „multi-secular event“rain fell up to 3400 m and founda lot of debris in the mountains, due to:- glacial retreat- ice exposure- retreating permafrost

Heavy precipitation hit the northen Swiss Alps,

21-23 August

2005.

Engadina Bassa, GR

Brienz, BE

Permafrost in the Swiss Alps - PERMOS

Temperature evolutionof permafrost

Murtel-Corvatch, 11.5 m deep,15 years of data

C.Roth.

Changes: Flowering of “anemone bianca”

PIENA FIORITURA DELL'ANEMONE BIANCOPrato Sornico, 1957-2002

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1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

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rni a

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Wood anemoneAnemone nemorosa L.

Change in the alpine Flora

On 10 summits of the Bernina region GR, Swiss AlpsUni Zürich and Hannover, October 2005 (AP)

3262 m

2959 m

Ca. 1930 1980 2005

- More then a doubling of the number of species- Acceleration of the increasing amount of species

Climbing vegetation !

Treeline –Onsernone: 2000m. Forest limit

Climbing vegetation ! Climbing trees !

Treeline: 2000 m. Forest limit

Summer 2005: in the Onsernone TI/CHLarix decidua was foundat 2300 m

Change of animals behavior!

Marmot travels up the Basodino glacier,on May 18th 2005, during 2 h,from 2400 to 3150 m

NOAA, Everest 28.01.2004

3. HIMALAYA

Accumulation; yearly layers

Gangchenpo,

Yala glacier, 5200 m, 1991 and 1992

Sampel site and results

Langtang, Lirung Glacier and Yala Glacier

19911992

L: Lirung and Y: Yala Glacier. Ky: Kyangjing

L

Y

Ky

Samples1992

Langtang-Lirung Glacier, surface lowering 1991-92

1991-1992

Reference:Intersection ofnear moraineand far mountain.

Lowering of glacier surface about 5 m in one year

Picture of 1992, with references to 91

Langtang, Kyangjing 3900 m

DHM weather station KyangiingGlaciological work

DHM Temperature and precipitation trend al KTM

Variation of Winter Precipitation at Kathmandu Airport

y = 0.4905x + 36.845

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Pre

cipi

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n in

mm

W inter Precipitation (mm) Linear (Winter Precipitation (mm))

Climate Change

Mean annualmaximum

temperature trend

Warming since 1977:– 0.06oC to 0.12oC/yr in

the northern highaltitude

– 0.03oC/yr in thesouthern plain

DHM

Annual temperature trend(Kathmandu)

Warming: 0.05oC/yr

Annual mean temp. with trend in deg C at Kathmandu

16,0

16,517,0

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18,519,0

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20,0

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Annual mean temp. Linear (Annual mean temp.)

Temperature evolution in Nepal (DHM)

Shresta, 1999

: http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

The atmosphere in summer on the southern side of the Himalaya

Warming of the atmosphere in summer on the southern side of the Himalaya

New Delhli Radiosond: zero degree height June, July, August, September

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

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june july august september Linear (june) Linear (august) Linear (july) Linear (september)

Each pointis the monthlymean of thezero degreehight of theNew Delhi00 utcsounding

Radiosond and atmospheric warmingNew Delhli Radiosond: zero degree height

June, July, August, September

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

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june july august september Linear (june) Linear (august) Linear (july) Linear (september)

- In 30 years the zero degree line climbed in summer about 100 to 200 m, in June more than 300 m

- Difficulties in evaluating possible sistematic error, (resulting slope could be larger)

Changes in the circulation? in the convection?

Possible changes in the dinamic of local winds and convective clouds. Langtang region.

Kappenberger et al 1993

A recent extreme event? Big avalanche on Mt. Kangru, 20 October 2005

K: Mt. KangruPOK: PokharaB: Bhairahawa

K

B

The storm of 20th Oct. 2005: was it an extrem one?

Daily Precipitation Oct 2005

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mm

Pokhara Bhairahawa

K: Mt. KangruP: PokharaB: Bhairahawa

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Extreme precipitation events on high mountains

???Was the recent avalanche accident in the Annapurna region of Nepal (20th Oct. 05) a consequence of an exeptional storm ???

Avalanche at Tilicho Peak. 29th Oct. 1980Same region, exactly 25 y earlier

Tilicho Peak, 7132 m, Annapurna region

Ice avalanche:

Picture sequence:

1. from the side By G.KappenbergerAnd

2. From the frontBy M.Braud

1

2

Manaslu, center and Pisang P. left.Mt. Kangru to the left

Base Camp

From the Base Camp: by M.Braun

A few minutes after the avalanche

CLIMATE CHANGES AND MOUNTAINS

SUMMARY-Three different mountain regions, Arctic, Alps and Himalaya show a strong glacier retreat due to:- atmospheric warming with warmer and longer summers. - zero degree line and snow line up by 100 to 300 m in the last decades.- precipitations show a big and increesing variability, also because of athmospheric circulation. Recent events (Swiss Alps and Nepal Himalaya) remembre us that heavy precipitation can hit persons and properties, in the mountains and in the lowland.

- CHANGES in the mountains environment are of a wide range. They concern an enormous spectrum of fields. Only a very few (personal) exemples (mainly in the glaciological field) have been presented.

CLIMATE CHANGES AND MOUNTAINS

THE END

THANK YOU

Paradies Glacier and Adula GR/TI-Switzerland, 1930 A.Gansser and 2001 G.Kappenberger

Summer temperature at Grand St Bernard

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°C

Estate 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Estate)

Permafrost surface: warming of the soil

Early ice exposure

Griesglacer, August 2003

Foto: F. Funk-Salamì

Extreeme retreat of glaciers

Cumulated massbalance since 1960 maximum loss in 2003

2003

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

In one summer loss of 3% of the icevolume

2002

Daten: SANW/VAW