Climate Change in Ireland - what's likely to happen ... · Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005....

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UCD Earth Sciences Institute

with TCD TrinityHausIn conjunction with the TCD‐UCD Innovation Alliance Public Lecture Series

Transforming Ireland Mobilising Innovation and Enterprise to Become a Prosperous Low Carbon Society

Climate Change in Ireland - what's likely to happen?23rd April 2010

Implications for Invasive SpeciesDr Jane Stout, TCD

• “By the end of the 21st century, climate change and its impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services globally” www.millenniumassessment.org

Images from Wikimedia commons

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

Invasive species

Images from Wikimedia Commons

www.environet-uk.co.uk

Climate change : implications for invasive species

1. Which species will be invasive?

2. What will impacts be on ecological goods and services?

www.ireland-salmon-fishing.net

Image from Wikimedia Commons

1. Which species will be invasive?

1. Arrival of new species

2. Establishment of populations in wild

3. Invasion

Images from Wikimedia Commons

New arrivals…

invasives.biodiversityireland.ie www.invasivespeciesireland.com

2010: Asian Clam 2007: Harlequin ladybird

Images from Wikimedia Commons

Spread of existing introduced species

• Pacific Oyster

Judith Kochmann & Tas Crowe, UCD

Predicting invasions I

• Risk assessment eg Invasive species Ireland• 385 established species and 171 potential invaders

www.invasivespeciesireland.com

Predicting invasions II

Images from Wikimedia Commons

www.biochange.ie/alienplants

www.biochange.ie/alienplants

Factors correlated with invasion

• Invasion history– Long time since first recorded in wild– Introduced as an ornamental– Invasive elsewhere in world

• Native distribution– Small native range

• Species traits– Hermaphrodite flowers– Not self-pollinated, not animal pollinated– Started flowering later in year– Preference for wetter habitats

Milbau and Stout (2008) Conservation Biology, 22: 308–317

Predicting future invasions

Species %chance

Hypericum calycinum 99

Crassula helmsii 96.9

Vinca major 95.6

Myriophyllum aquaticum 94

Azolla filiculoides 90

100.0080.0060.0040.0020.000.00

Probability of invasion (%)

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Probability of invasion (%)0 20 40 60 80 100

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Climate change : implications for invasive species

1. Which species will become invasive?

2. What will impacts be on ecological goods and services?

www.ireland-salmon-fishing.net

Image from Wikimedia Commons

Impacts on ecological goods and services: eg pollination

Gallai et al 2009Bullock et al 2008

Pollination interactions are complex

From Stanley and Stout, in prep

Bumblebee visiting Oilseed Rape flower

Insect species

Plant species

How can invasive species affect pollination services?

Adapted from Stout & Morales (2009) Apidologie 40: 388–409

Invasive plants

Generalist pollinators

Specialist pollinators

Native plants

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Case study: Rhododendron ponticum

Stout et al. (2006) Biodiversity and ConservationStout (2007) Apidologie 38 198-206Dietzsch and Stout , in preparation

Vision for 2020?

• Invaders create novel communities

• Impact on ecological interactions

• Ecological specialists particularly at risk

• Impact on provision of ecological goods and services

What should be done?

Monitor and plan for species range change

Limit human-driven introductions of new species

– Biosecurity

Target conservation for delivery of goods and services

UCD Earth Sciences Institute with TCD TrinityHausTransforming Ireland Seminar Series

In conjunction with the TCD‐UCD Innovation Alliance Public Lecture Series

With the support of Business in the Community Ireland and in collaboration with

Comhar Sustainable Development Council, Environmental Protection Agency, Geological

Survey of Ireland, Sustainable Energy Authority Ireland, Dublin City Council,

Met Éireann, Enterprise Ireland, Marine Institute and Teagasc

For Further details on the seminar series is available contact esi.admin@ucd.ie

A podcast of this seminar will be available on the ESI website soon, please join the online ESI mailing list for such notifications