Post on 18-Dec-2015
Climate Change:Impacts and Responses for Ecological RestorationENV 794April 4, 2011
Ben JurandBehrooz Pakzadeh
Outline
Overview of Climate Change
Impacts and Effects on Species and Ecosystems Ecological Disturbances Phenologies
Implications for Restoration Current Framework Strategies & Approaches
Conclusion and Discussion
Outlines
• Introduction to climate change
• Effect on Hydrology(Precipitation, Snow, ice)
• Climate change consequences on Ecosystems.
What changes climate?
• Change in• Sun’s output• Earth's orbit• Drifting continents• Volcanic eruptions• Greenhouse gases
Climate
•CO2 and other greenhouse gases are at the highest level in the 400,000 years.
•Global Surface temperature has increased over by an estimated 0.74°c over the past century.
•Many plants and animals will not be able to shift ranges to keep pace with warming
Climate change: Consequence on Ecosystem
• Physical Earth
• Life and Death
• Humans
http://www.eoearth.org
Consequences: Life and Death
• Biosphere• Ecosystem Disturbance
• Distributions• Diversity• Productivity• Seasonality
• Species Shifts• Genes• Habitat shift• Population
Ecosystem Disturbance: Distributions
Elevational Latitudinal
This images was created by Robert A. Rohde for Global Warming Art
Major Terrestrial Biomes• Geographic distribution of biomes are dependent on temperature,
precipitation, altitude and latitude• Weather patterns dictate the type of plants that will dominate an
ecosystem
faculty.southwest.tn.edu/. ../ES%20%20we16.jpg
Prentice, C.I., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly D. and Cheddadi, R., 1996, Reconstructing biomes from palaeoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka.
Climate Dynamics 12:185-194.
Global Distribution of Vegetation 18,000 years ago
conifers
tundra
taigagrassland
woodland
desert
Prentice, C.I., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly D. and Cheddadi, R., 1996, Reconstructing biomes from palaeoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka.
Climate Dynamics 12:185-194.
Global Distribution of Vegetation 6,000 years ago
taigatemperate deciduous
woods & scrub
conifers
grassland desert
tundra
cold deciduous
Prentice, C.I., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly D. and Cheddadi, R., 1996, Reconstructing biomes from palaeoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka.
Climate Dynamics 12:185-194.
Global Distribution of Vegetation - Present
taiga
tundra
temperate deciduous
grassland
cold deciduous
tropical R.F.
warm mix
Plant distributional changes attributed
• Altitude• Kullman 2001, 2002,
2003 in Bulgaria 1955–1998 Pinus peuce, treeline increased 200 m
Plant distributional changes attributed
• Latitude• Jump et al. 2006 in
Spain 1975–2003 Fagus grandifolia decreased growth at lower elevations
Ecosystem Disturbance: Diversity, Productivity
• Productivity: A reasonable hypothesis is that phenological changes associated with warming will increase ecosystem productivity.
• Diversity: Species extinctions are likely to result from climatic changes.
Phenological Changes and seasonality
Penuelas J and Filella I 2001. Response to a warming world. Science 294: 793 – 795
Phenological change of Syringa in North America
• Schwartz and Reiter in 2000 studied the Syringa and compared it to old existing records in herbarium records from in the 1959
• Syringa is flowering, leafing advanced 5–6 d, due to 1°c
Phenological change of Ginko biloba in Japan
• Japan 1953–2000 Ginkgo biloba bud break & leaf fall budding advanced, leaf fall delayed Matsumoto et al. 2003
Global:45°-75° N
• Global phenological change between1981–1991 in terrestrial ecosystems :leafing spring advanced, autumn delayed, Myneni et al. 1997
• World-wide various numerous taxa most advanced ( a meta-analysis) Root et al. 2003
Phenology is important because…
• it affects whether plants and animals thrive, or survive, in their environment
• …our food supply depends on the timing of phenological events
• …changes in the timing of phenological events can be used as an indicator of climate change
Phenological mismatches• Phenological changes are
particularly troubling when mutualistic relationships are disrupted, such as when a plant is cued by temperature and an animal by day length.
• For instance, the English oak blooms two weeks earlier and moth larvae hatch two weeks earlier to feed on the leaves. The pied flycatcher used to arrive when the larvae hatched to feed on them. Now the larvae population is becoming less when the birds arrive and the bird population is declining as a result.
Applications of phenological observation
Agriculture Providing phenological data as input for crop models, and for the timing of management activities
Biodiversity / Ecology Assessing the impacts of extreme events, species interaction, migration of plant-communities to new zones(e.g. to higher altitude or latitude), mismatch of timinge.g. in food chains or mismatch of climate and species
Natural Resource Management Timing of management activities, resource management under climate change (e.g. locating new reserves, linking of reserves)
Education Involving school children and the public in scientific research by a very cheap and easy accessible means(plants and animals can be observed almost everywhere without any tool apart from keen interest,some knowledge on plant-identification and some basic rules), thus bringing people closer to nature.
Gardening Giving information to the public on planning activities like pest control
Human Health Providing pollen information for sensitive groups, assessing the impact of climate change on vector borne diseases (e.g. ticks, mosquitoes)
Increasing environmental interest Informing the public on environmental issues like climate change and its effects on vegetation
Tourism, Recreation & Sports Giving information on phenomena or events that potentially can interest people (e.g., in Austria, bike tours on cherry-flowering or apricot-flowering are organized, bird watch tours)
Importance of phenology in climate change
• Tool to monitor• Precise quantitative analysis of changes in
phenological time series• A know relationship with temperature and
or precipitation • Analogous change in corresponding
temperature and or precipitation series over time
Phenology monitoring
• Species observations• Cloned plant observations• Web cams• Satellite remote-sensing of ecosystem
production• Atmospheric monitoring of Carbone
dioxide concentration
Satellite Phenology• Advantages 1) Global coverage;
2) Integrated signal
• Limitations: 1) Short period-of-record; 2) Cloud cover interference; 3) Interpretation issues; 4) Small set of measures
Species Shifts: Habitat shift
• Definition: Change in the local environmental conditions in which a particular organism lives.
http://www.esa.org/plantpop/
Species shift: Population
• Snow Lotous, a valuable Tibetan medicinal plant, is threatened by both over-harvest and climate change
http://www.esa.org/plantpop/
Species shift: Population
• A 90-percent decline in sooty shearwaters (Puffinus griseus) off the California coast in just 7 years (1987-1994) has been associated with warming of the California Current, which flows from southern British Columbia to Baja California
Shifts in Terrestrial Habitat
• It is predicted that at the end of this century there will be large scale shifts in the global distribution of vegetation in response to anthropogenic climate change.
• With man doubling the amount of carbon dioxide entering into the atmosphere the climate is changing more rapidly than plant migration can keep up.
Potential distribution of the major world biomes under current climate conditions
Projected distribution of the major world biomes by simulating the effects of 2xCO2-equivalent concentrations www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/ seminars/960610SM.html
Boreal and Alpine Vegetation
• Research indicates the greatest amount of change will occur at the higher latitudes
• Northern Canada and Alaska are already experiencing rapid warming and reduction of ice cover
• Vegetation existing in these areas will be replaced with temperate forest species
• Tundra, Taiga and Temperate forests will migrate pole ward
• Some plants will face extinction because habitat will become too small (ex. Mountain tops of European Alps)
Predicted changes in Siberian vegetation in response to doubling of CO2
Climate change
www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/ seminars/960610SM.html
Those at Risk • countries (Russia, Sweden, Finland) ½ of existing
terrestrial habitats at risk
• In Mexico, it’s predicted that 2.4% of species will lose 90% of their range and threatened with extinction by the year 2055
• Population at greatest risk are the rare and isolated species with fragmented habitats or those surrounded by water, agriculture or human development
• Polar bears facing extinction by prolonged ice melts in feeding areas along with decline in seal population
Conclusions• Prevention in nature always cheaper and
easier than cure!• Warming of the climate system is
unequivocal• Human-caused warming over last 30 years
has likely had a visible influence on many physical and biological systems
• Conservation thought like( Adaption, Mitigation, Restoration) can slow down the effect of global warming
Restoration Responses
Implications for Restoration
Current Management Practices
The Role of Historical Reference Conditions
Strategies and Approaches to Dealing with Climate Change Adaptation Mitigation
Implications for Restoration
How do we value ecosystems? Emphasis on economic interestsMany are counterproductive to climate and
ecosystem stabilityMust realize: without ecosystem functions,
no economic goods or services would be possible
Threatened ecosystems and species will become increasingly difficult to predict
Implications for Restoration
Dealing with uncertainties Impacts on species and natural resources Sudden, unpredictable changes Large events Inevitable in the next 20-30 years?
Trajectory, inertia of earth’s systems mean that we must adapt to changing climate in the next few decades (Harris et al. 2006)
Management strategies need to identify the specific impacts of climate change on managed species and ecosystems (Hulme 2005)
Implications for Restoration
Anthropogenic stressors interact with climate systems: (Millar et al. 2007)
Pollution Habitat fragmentation Land-use changes Invasive species
(plants, animals, pathogens) Altered fire regimes
National Conservation Framework
“…conserve the scenery and the natural and historic objects and the wild life therein and to provide for the enjoyment of the same in such manner and by such means as will leave them unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations.”The National Park Service Organic Act (16 U.S.C. l 2 3, and 4), as set forth herein, consists of the Act of Aug. 25 1916 (39 Stat. 535) and amendments thereto.
Legislation protects habitat types and important species Based on assumptions that the ecosystems
don’t change
Current Management Practices
Ecosystems managed under current conservation schemes may become: More vulnerable Less resilient to disturbances More likely to suffer gene pool degradation More likely to have difficultly with species
regeneration after disturbance Ecosystem fringes
Barriers to new strategies Entrenched interest groups Polarized opinions Time delays in strategy adoption
Current Management Practices
Counterproductive Practices?
Example: fire suppressionSome high altitude forests no
longer retain higher moisture content due to climate change Dryer More vulnerable More likely to burn in fires
Management practices exacerbate the problem
Current Management Practices
Example: forest management (Millar et al. 2007)
Assumption that restoring the structure of a forest to historical reference conditions is the best way to maintain sustainable ecosystems
Restoration efforts often focused on restoring to past conditions
May be more prudent to help ecosystems adapt to changing current and future conditions
Historical Reference Conditions
Use of historical ecosystem conditions as targets and references must be compared to how likely it is that the system will change in the future
Relying solely on historic reference conditions is problematicClimate changes may not support historic
conditionsMay lead to failure of restoration efforts
Example
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations in African savannas (Bond & Midgley 2000)
Tree-grass proportions linked to atmospheric CO2 concentrations
Concentrations have changed Applying reference conditions to
restoration efforts problematic Historic tree-grass proportions
not likely to be restored because of change in CO2 concentration
http://www.alaboola.com/lists/african_savannah/
Historical Reference Conditions
But… we disregard history at our own peril (Swetnam et al. 1999)
Crucial to understanding range of variation Historical conditions as a guide, but not
necessarily a prescription Need multiple, comparative histories from multiple
locations
Need to look toward the future as well Why establish wetlands in an area likely to become
semi-arid? Why use a temperate woodland as a reference
condition if area is likely to be flooded by sea level rise?
Strategies and Approaches
Managing in the face of uncertainty (Millar et al. 2007)
Short term strategiesLong term strategiesFocus on enhancing resistance and resilienceAssist in ecosystem adaptation to changes in
climate
Management must understand: (Hulme 2005)
Climate driversHow ecosystems and species respond to
climate and management strategies
Conceptual Framework
Toolbox concept: (Millar et al. 2007)
Various treatments, practices combined to fit unique situations
Strategies vary based on specific spatial and temporal considerations Appropriate levels/scales Models and information sources about future Planning horizons Public support
Conceptual Framework
Deterministic Approaches Reliance on projections about the future for
planning Specific goals intended for the future
Indeterministic Approaches Multiple approaches to minimize risks Unknown directions Goals developed with uncertainty in mind
(Millar et al. 2007)
Response Strategies
Adaptive strategies
Help ecosystems accommodate change
Mitigation strategies
Reducing anthropogenic climate change
Integrated strategies
Adaption + Mitigation
Adaptive Strategies
Adaptive Management
Collection and application of reliable information to improve management over time (Wilhere 2002)
Management policies applied as experimental treatments
Learning from experience
Incorporating lessons into future plans
Iterative process (Millar et al. 2007)
Adaptive Strategies
Adaptive Management Process
1. Identify climate-sensitive system components
2. Assess likelihood and consequences of impacts
3. Identify and select options for adaptation
Adaptive Strategies
Goals for Adaptation
Increase flexibility in management of vulnerable ecosystems
Enhance species and ecosystem’s inherent adaptability
Reduce trends in environment and social pressures to increase vulnerability to climate variability
Institutional flexibility more effective than rigid, highly structured decision making
Multiple approaches to a given situation
(Hulme 2005)
Adaptive Strategies
Example: Game Species
Species density and abundance changes with to rainfall variablity Greater variation in rainfall
population below carrying capacity Management strategies must adapt to
changing conditions to avoid resource overexploition
Trade-off between harvest size and risk of population collapse
Models can help inform density dependent processes
http://www.wildnatureimages.com/elk%202%20Y.htm
Adaptive Strategies
Example: Sea Level Rise Current management:
enhance existing sea defenses
Problem: salt-marshes Sea walls prevent landward
migration of salt marsh habitat
Adaptive management for ecosystem should include increasing sediment budgets to allow for the establishment of pioneer species
http://www.kennisbank-waterbouw.nl/EC/clm010613.jpg
Adaptive Strategies
Resistance to Change Approach deals with uncertainty Focuses on improving ecosystem defenses
against rapid indirect and direct environmental changes
Best applied to short term Caveat: Resistance may be futile
Climate change may prove catastrophic to a truly resistant ecosystem
Example: Forest Management in North America Reducing effects of
fires, insects, Fire breaks, invasive
species removal Defensive actions at
key migration points to block invasions will build resistance
http://inhabitat.com/files/hot-shots.jpg
Adaptive Strategies
Resilience to change Return to a prior condition after disturbance Focuses on coping with disturbance Treatments similar to resistance but on a
broader scale Best in the short term May include non-standard restoration practices
(Harris et al. 2006)
Wider range of species used (more than local)
Adaptive Strategies
Enable adaptive response to change Intentionally accommodate changeEncourages gradual adaptation and transition Seeks to avoid rapid catastrophic conversion Treatments mimic, assist, or enable ongoing
natural adaptive processes species dispersal and migration population mortality colonization changes in species dominance changing disturbance regimes
Managing species in unsustainable habitats Habitat connectivity facilitates migration Assisted migration
Trans-locate species to approximate habitats Use natural gradients as guides for the intentional
movement of individuals to future habitats Utilize new species mixes, changes in genotype
selections
http://www.swarthmore.edu/Images/academics/student_projects/es_capstone/Drill%20Sites_Habitat%20Fragmentation.jpg
Increase genetic diversity Maintaining local gene pool may not yield
desired results Including other genotypes from other
populations may help populations adapt to climate change
Promote diverse ages, species mixes, structural and genetic diversities helps make a system adaptable to present and future conditions rather than past
Adaptive Strategies
Neo-Native Establishment of historical
species once supported when past conditions matched future projections Example: Monterrey Pine Distribution patterns in
California have changed over time, beginning to reestablish in paleo-historical locations
Remove an invasive? Or establish a neo-native?
Adaptive Strategies
http://frap.cdf.ca.gov/pitch_canker/images/identification/healthy_mont_pine.jpg
Mitigation Strategies
Reduce greenhouse gases Sequester carbon in forests…
Afforestation, reforestation Rapid growth of favored plants Sequestered in wood producs
Reduce emissions Fire and forest mortality increases carbon
emissions Improve resistance in forests to fire, drought,
pests
Integrated Strategies
Prioritized Management FrameworkSpecies have individualistic responses to
changing climatesSome ecosystems may need aggressive
treatments to maintain viability, resistanceReduction of current stressors Policies must address climate change, but allow
for flexible responses to address rapid changes
Conclusion
Restoration efforts should consider: (Hulme 2005)
The current state of the ecosystem Use of dynamic metricsLarge scale interactionsCultural and natural causes of climatic
variabilityMaintaining a balance between rebuilding
past ecosystems and building resilience for the future
Restoring processes, rather than structures
Conclusion
Restoration Questions How involved should we be in managing
ecosystems? How far should we go to facilitate adaptation?
Moving species? How active should we be in determining
ecosystem trajectories in the face of uncertainty?
Can we predict ecological change?
References
Bertin, R. I. (2008). Plant phenology and distribution in relation to recent climate change. The Journal of the Torrey Botanical Society, 135(1), 126-146.
Harris, J. A., Hobbs, R. J., Higgs, E., & Aronson, J. (2006). Ecological restoration and global climate change. Restoration Ecology, 14(2), 170-176.
Hulme, P. E. (2005). Adapting to climate change: is there scope for ecological management in the face of a global threat? Journal of Applied Ecology, 42(5), 784-794.
Lesica, P., & Allendorf, F. W. (1999). Ecological Genetics and the Restoration of Plant Communities: Mix or Match? Restoration Ecology, 7(1), 42-50
McKenzie, D., Gedalof, Z., Peterson, D. L., & Mote, P. (2004). Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conservation Biology, 18(4), 890-902.
Millar, C. I., Stephenson, N. L., & Stephens, S. L. (2007). Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecological Applications, 17(8), 2145-2151.
Swetnam, T. W., Allen, C. D., & Betancourt, J. L. (1999). Applied historical ecology: using the past to manage for the future. Ecological Applications, 9(4), 1189-1206.
Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., & Swetnam, T. W. (2006). Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity. Science, 313(5789), 940
Wilhere, G. F. (2002). Adaptive Management in Habitat Conservation Plans. Conservation Biology. Vol. 16, No. 1.