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7/27/2019 Climate Change Extreme Weather More Climat
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The many and varied c onseq uences of extreme weather: droug hts, heat waves, storms, heavy rain and extreme
frost affect the carbo n balance o f forests, grasslands and ag ricultural land in d ifferent ways. The arrows po inting
upward represe nt addi t ional carbon dio xide in the atmosphe re. The arrows pointing do wnward indicate that carbon
dio xide is remo ved more sl owly from the atmosphere . Orange arrows stand for short-term and purple arrows for
long-term effects.
The last several decades of climate change, and climate change research, have indicated andrepeatedly conf irmed a rather depressing reality. When so mething changes in the earths
climate system, it is pos sible that a negative f eedback will result, in which climate change is
attenuated. I.e., more CO2 could cause more plant growth, the plants eat t he CO2, so a
negative feedback reduces atmospheric levels of the greenhouse gas bringing everything
back to normal. Or, when so mething changes in the earths climate system, we could get a
posit ive f eedback, where change in one direction (warming) causes more change in that
directio n. A developing and alarming example of this would be warming in the arctic caus ing
less s ummer sea ice in the arctic which warms t he arctic which causes less s ea ice, etc. etc.,
with numerous widespread and dramatic ef f ects on climate and weather.
Over these decades o f observatio n and research, weve discovered that negative
feedbacks are rare, and when they occur, the are f eeble. Yes, some plants do eat
some of that extra CO2, bur hardly any. This makes sense. Adding antelopes to
the savanna might cause there to be more lions t o some extent, but the cap on
lion density is not antelopes it is other lions, st aking out t erritories. Af ter the
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optimize within some range. Plants cant really be expected to use more water, more CO2,
more other nutrients , just because they are there, beyond some range that they typically use
in nature.
Well, we have a new posit ive feedback: Weather Weirding caused by climate change causes
more climate change. Heres how it works.
First , we warm the arctic. This causes the gradient of warm tro pical air to co oler temperate
and arctic air to reduce. The gradient causes atmospheric syst ems that include jet st reams to
form, but with a reduced gradient, t he jet s treams change their behavior. When the gradient is
low enough (as it is now most o f the time) the polar jet stream shif ts f rom being a more or
less s imple circle around the earth t o a very wavy circle, and the jet s tream itself moves more
slowly. For reasons that have to do with t he math of the atmosphere, when the waviness
reaches a certain point the waves t hemselves tend to stop moving, or move only slowly. So
the jet stream is moving through these waves, but the position of the waves remains stable
for days and days on end.
Where the wave dips t owards the equato r, an low pressure system forms in the elbow o f
the wave and sits t here fo r days on end, causing cool conditions and a lot of precipitation.
Flooding ensues. Where the wave dips up to wards the pole, a high pressure system f orms in
the inverted elbow of the jet st ream. This brings warm air north and that air tends to be dry
(depending on where it is). This results in heat waves and drought conditions. The reality is
more complex that Ive indicated here, but you get t he picture. Weather extremes o f both cold
and heat o ccur, and weather extremes o f both wet and dry occur.
(For more info rmation on these phenomena see: Why are we having such bad weather?,
Linking Weather Extremes to Global Warming, and The Ice Cap is Melting and You Can Help.)
And now comes the newly ident if ied pos itive f eedback.
The research by scientist s at Max Plank is published in nature (see citation below) but
summarized on a web page f rom that institute:
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When the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere rises, the Earth not only heats up, but extreme
weather events, such as lengthy droughts, heat waves, heavy rain and violent storms, may
become more frequent. Whether these extreme climate events result in the release of more CO2
from terrestrial ecosystems and thus reinforce climate change has been one of the major
unanswered questions in c limate research. It has now been addressed by an international team of
researchers working with Markus Reichstein, Director at the Max Planck Institute for
Biogeochemistry in Jena. They have discovered that terrestrial ecosystems absorb approximately
11 billion tons less carbon dioxide every year as the result of the extreme climate events than they
could if the events did not occur. That is equivalent to approximately a third of global CO2
emissions per year.that the consequences of weather extremes can be far-reaching. As
extreme climate events reduce the amount of carbon that the terrestrial ecosystems absorb and
the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere therefore continues to increase, more ext reme weather could
result, explains Markus Reichstein. It would be a self-reinforcing effect.
In particular drought (caused by extremes of heat long term, and lack of rainfall) cause plants
to absorb less CO2. Heavy precipitat ion increases t he flow of water containing carbonate
holding materials into bodies of water where the CO2 out- gasses.
I would add to this t he relationship between drought, f ire, and dark snow in Greenland.
Climate change causes extreme weather which causes more of the same so rt o f climate
change.
Bobby Magill also discuss es this here: Can Extreme Weather Make Climate Change Worse?
___________________________
Reichstein, Markus, Bahn, Michael, Ciais, Phillipe, & Et Al (2013). Climate extremes and thecarbon cycle Nature DOI: 10.1038/nature12350
Climate Change Extreme Weather global warming
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sailor
August 18, 2013
On the negative feedback side wont global warming mean more clouds and thus more
reflection?#1
David Kirtley
St Louis
August 18, 2013
Good post!#2
Greg Laden
August 18, 2013
Sailor, that was hoped for at one point but it does not seem to work that way. There
are a number of reasons including that the vapor is co ncentrated in spa ce not
uniform, and not at high enough of an altitude to reflect enough heat vapor is a
green house gas and clouds reflect sunlight, so one can imagine the possible
outcomes are complicated. I think, though, that the cloud situation has been largely
settled and there isnt much hope of a significant (or any?) nega tive feedback there.
#3
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