Post on 13-Apr-2017
Maria Janowiak, Stephen Handler
Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science
USDA Forest Service
Climate Change Response Framework
www.forestadaptation.org
Climate Change and
Upper Michigan’s Forests:
Risks, Opportunities, and
Ways to Adapt
Considering Climate Change
Considering Climate Change
More Information
• Examine a range of future climates
• Do not make recommendations
• Sources of information:
• Models
• Published research
• Local managers and experts
Download: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/45688 & /46393
Michigan Winters
Figure: SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, ORBIMAGE
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/
Winter Weather
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/
Weather + Time = Climate
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/
Climate Change
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/
Climate Change
Coldest Winters1. 1903-042. 1917-183. 1919-204. 1962-635. 1916-176. 1976-777. 1904-058. 1935-369. 1911-1210. 2013-14
Warmest Winters1. 2000-012. 1997-983. 2015-16*4. 2011-125. 1931-326. 1982-837. 2005-068. 1986-879. 1952-5310. 1998-99
What’s actually changed in the Northwoods?
Change in Annual Temperature, 1901-2011
www.climatewizard.org
Observed Temperature Changes
Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature, 1901-2011
www.climatewizard.org
Observed Temperature Changes
www.climatewizard.org
Observed Precipitation ChangesChange in Annual Precip, 1901-2011
www.climatewizard.org
Observed Precipitation ChangesChange in Seasonal Precip, 1901-2011
Saunders and Easley 2014
Observed Trends in Extreme Weather
Other Observed ChangesWarmer Water/Reduced Ice Cover Lake Superior water temperature increase of 4.5 °F (1979-2006)
71% reduction in Great Lakes ice cover (1973-2010)
Duration of lake ice cover reduced by 1-2 per decade
Altered Soil Temperature and Frost
12-24 fewer soil frost days since 1900
Altered freeze-thaw cycles
Longer Growing Seasons
Last spring freeze 5.6 days earlier
First autumn freeze 6.5 days later
Arrive 29 days earlier
Has leaves 11 more days
Assel 2009, Wang et al. 2011, Sinha et al. 2009, Kucharik et al. 2011
And Everything ElseClimate is not the complete story, but the story’s not
complete without it.
How could forests be affected?
Longer Growing Seasons
Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons
Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/
HighLow
Last Spring Freeze – End of Century
Longer Growing Seasons
Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons
• Evidence of phenological shifts
• Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks
Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth
Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014
Longer Growing Seasons
Warmer temps result in longer growing seasons
• Evidence of phenological shifts
• Projected to increase 3-7+ weeks
Opportunity: Longer period for plant growth
Challenge: Potential risks from altered seasonality
• Early bud break/loss of cold hardening
• Frost damage during spring freezing
Melillo et al. 2014, Nelson Center 2014
Shorter Winter, Less Snow
Projected decreases in snow fall, cover, and depth
30-70% decreases in snowfall
Greatest snowfall decreases in December or January
Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/
HighLow
Days with >10 inches snowpack – End of Century
Shorter Winter = Less Snow
Challenge: Decreased snowpack
• Increased soil frost and root damage in cold temps
• Warmer soil temperatures and altered processes
Rittenhouse and Rissman 2015
Shorter Winter = Less Snow, More Rain
Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain
Shorter Winter = Less Snow, More Rain
Precipitation is projected to increase = more rain
Challenge: Altered stream flow timing and amount
• Earlier spring peak flows
• Potential increases in flashiness and episodic high flows
• Potential declines in summer seasonal stream flow
Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip
Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress
Water loss from soils (evaporation)
Water loss from trees (transpiration)
Groundwater recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip
Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress
Water loss from soils (evaporation)
Water loss from trees (transpiration)
Groundwater recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Warmer temps increase water loss
Longer Growing Season + Altered Precip
Challenge: Increased risk of moisture stress
Water loss from soils (evaporation)
Water loss from trees (transpiration)
Groundwater recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Warmer temps increase water loss
Increased Carbon Dioxide
Image: www.science.howstuffworks.com
Increased Carbon DioxideOpportunity: Increased productivity from CO2
– Increased photosynthesis
– Increased water use efficiency
Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011
Increased Carbon Dioxide
Opportunity: Increased productivity*
– Increased photosynthesis
– Increased water use efficiency
*Effect likely limited:
– Limited sink strength
– Interactions with nitrogen
– Ozone damage
– Other reductions in productivity (e.g., moisture stress, disturbance)
Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011
Changes in Habitat Suitability
Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species
Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species
Changes in Habitat Suitability
Habitat based on:
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Elevation
• Latitude
• Soils
• Slope & Aspect
• Land use
• Competition
• Management
Changes in Habitat Suitability
Habitat based on:
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Elevation
• Latitude
• Soils
• Slope & Aspect
• Land use
• Competition
• Management
Climate Change Atlas:What happens to tree and bird habitat when climate changes?•134 Trees•147 Birds
Iverson et al. 2008; Atlas website: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
Tree Species Habitat Shifts2070-2100 Low
2070-2100 High
Current DistributionImportance
Value
Low
High
Legend
all_spp_current
fia_802
1.000000
1.000001 - 4.000000
4.000001 - 6.000000
6.000001 - 9.000000
9.000001 - 11.000000
11.000001 - 14.000000
14.000001 - 23.000000
Quaking Aspen
Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/; Handler et al. 2014, Janowiak et al. 2014
Tree Species Habitat Shifts2070-2100 Low
2070-2100 High
White OakCurrent Distribution
Importance Value
Low
High
Legend
all_spp_current
fia_802
1.000000
1.000001 - 4.000000
4.000001 - 6.000000
6.000001 - 9.000000
9.000001 - 11.000000
11.000001 - 14.000000
14.000001 - 23.000000
Climate Change Atlas: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/; Handler et al. 2014, Janowiak et al. 2014
Potential “Losers” Balsam fir Black spruce Jack pine Northern white-cedar
Paper birch Quaking aspen Tamarack White spruce
Mixed Results American basswood Bur oak Eastern hemlock
Red pine Sugar maple Yellow birch
Potential “Winners” American elm Ironwood Black oak Black walnut Eastern redcedar
Sassafras Scarlet oak Shagbark hickory Silver maple White oak
Tree Species Habitat Shifts
Handler et al. 2014, Janowiak et al. 2014
Changes in Habitat Suitability
Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species
Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species
• Many common tree species are projected to have reduced suitability in the future
• Changes will occur slowly—not instant dieback
• Mature and established trees should fare better
• Immense lags to occupy habitats
• Critical factors: competition, management, & disturbance
Extreme Events
Challenge: Increased disturbance from extreme events
• Heavy precipitation
• Ice storms
• Heat waves/droughts
• Wind storms
• Hurricanes
• “Events” are not well modeled
VTRANS/VT ANR
NY DEC
Dan Turner,Cambridge Fire Dept.
Interactions: Wildfire
Fire may increase:• Warmer/drier summers• Increased stress or
mortality from less suitable conditions
• Shift toward fire-associated species like oaks and pines
Fire may not change:• Spring/early summer moisture• Current regeneration of more
mesic species• Land use and fragmentation• Fire suppression
Clark et al. 2014
Challenge: Increased wildfire potential
Interactions: Insects and Disease
Indirect: Stress from other impacts increases susceptibility
Direct:
• Pests migrating northward
• Decreased probability of cold lethal temperatures
• Accelerated lifecycles
Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Woods et al. 2005, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009 Image: Frumhoff et al. 2007
HWA lethal temp: -20 to -30°F
Challenge: Increased forest insects, invasives, diseases
Interactions: Invasive Plants
Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect the potential for invasion or success
Direct:
• Expanded ranges under warmer conditions
• Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to take advantage of elevated CO2
Dukes et al. 2009, Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org)
Challenge: Increased invasive & noxious plants
Effects on Forests
Generally Challenges
• Reduced growth: moisture stress
• Decline of northern/boreal species
• Disturbance from extreme events
• Wildfire potential
• Forests pests & disease
• Invasive species
Generally Opportunities
• Increased productivity: longer growing season
• Increased productivity: more CO2
• Increased habitat for some species
What would you add?
Vulnerability: Local Considerations
Research and assessments describe broad trends but local conditions make the difference.
Putting Info into Practice
??
Desired ConditionsNatural Forest
Dynamics
Wildlife Habitat
Past Management
History
Invasives Timber Sale Revenue
Disturbance:Past + Future
Recreation
Forest Health
And more!! Climate Change
Plan & Project Requirements
We can’t predict the future…
Don’t wait for a crystal ball
…but we know enough to take action
Instead: think about reducing risks
Adapting to Change
Swanston and Janowiak 2012; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543
Adaptation Demonstrations
www.forestadaptation.orgClick ‘Demonstration Projects’
Forest Cover
Gogebic County: Mosinee GEMS
• Gogebic County
• 1,100 acres
• Ruffed grouse, woodcock, deer, and snowshoe hare
www.forestadaptation.org/node/544
(grouse-enhanced management system)
Gogebic County: Mosinee GEMS
Challenges• Increased risk of moisture
stress• Long-term decline of quaking
aspen• Trail & access issues
Opportunities
• Species like northern red oak may increase
• Near-term opportunity to regenerate aspen
www.forestadaptation.org/node/544
Gogebic County: Mosinee GEMS
• Increased risk of moisture stress
• Long-term decline of quaking aspen
• Trail & access issues
Opportunities
• Species like northern red oak may increase
• Near-term opportunity to regenerate aspen
www.forestadaptation.org/node/544
Challenges
Gogebic County: Mosinee GEMS
• Increased risk of moisture stress
• Long-term decline of quaking aspen
• Trail & access issues
Opportunities
• Species like northern red oak may increase
• Near-term opportunity to regenerate aspen
www.forestadaptation.org/node/544
Challenges
Adaptation Demonstrations
www.forestadaptation.orgClick ‘Demonstration Projects’
Forest Cover
220,000 acres of forest
Managed by Menominee
Tribal Enterprises for
Menominee Indian Tribe
Oak Wilt Treatment :
Harvest affected &
adjacent oaks
Pull stumps to sever root
connection
Harvest other species in
: www.forestadaptation.org/mte
Menominee Forest
Menominee Forest
Challenges Opportunities
• Reforesting the oak wilt sites provides an opportunity to plant assemblages that may be better able to respond to future stressors.
Oak wilt reduces the ability to maintain healthy, productive forests and meet other management goals
Oak wilt treatment results in heavily disturbed sites
Plant selection: Traditional Ecological Knowledge
Tree Species Notes Menominee Name Meaning Menominee Use
White Oak 60% of site Askeqtemaehnak Good for the eyes medicinal/food
Black Oak 30% of site Anipahkahkuehtek Black inside medicinal/food
Bur Oak 8% of site Mahkemenah maeqtekomen Biggest acorn medicinal/food
Swamp Oak 1% of site Maskik-askeqtemaeh Found in swamp medicinal/food
Post oak 1% of site
Additional Tree Species
Black Walnut Kentucky Bluegrass along side Paskanaweh Good tasting nut medicinal/food
American Elm Variety with higher resistance Keckiwahtek Elder Tree medicinal
Shingle Oak Hoping for shrublike effect
Black Cherry Earlier successional stage Awaehsehsaekahtek Little Bear tree medicinal
Northern White-cedar Medicine tree within stand Kesaehkahtek Medicine treemedicinal/ceremonial
Example plant list for some sites
Menominee Forest
Summer 2015 and 2016
• Tree planting
• Seeding of understory plants
Menominee Forest
If you want a single “answer” for how to respond to climate change, it’s
“It depends”
It depends on where you are working and what you’re trying to achieve.
Same actions–climate change
just makes them that
much more important
Small “tweaks” that improve effectiveness
New & different actions to consider, even some that may seem wild & crazy
*individual results will vary
Adaptation: The Real Story
www.ForestAdaptation.org
Stephen Handler: sdhandler@fs.fed.us
Maria Janowiak: mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us
Thank you!