CLIMATE CHANGEAND

THE DRIVE FOR SUSTAINABILITY

John Orr

Environment Manager

Anglian Region

Is the climate changing?

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level”

IPCC 4th Assessment Report

“…we have very little time left – indeed less than 100 months – in which to alter our behaviour drastically”. HRH The Prince of Wales 2009

By 2030 the demand for resources will create a crisis with dire consequences, Prof John Beddington said.

A PERFECT STORM

Temperature effects

GREENHOUSE EFFECT – NEWS?

The science behind the greenhouse effect has been known since the late 1800sIt is what makes life on earth possible……and it’s the reason that the surface of Venus is hotter than the surface of MercuryBUT the bad news is that human activities have exceeded the capacity of natural systems to maintain a balance and GHG concentrations in the atmosphere are rising

The greenhouse effect in the atmosphere

CO2 concentration

Correlations and coincidence

Global Scenarios

Tipping points

For a 30% chance of avoiding dangerous climate change

Global figure of 450 ppmv CO2

This implies a UK carbon budget of 4.8 Gt C for 2000 – 2050

But 1.2 Gt C have already been emitted from 2000 – 2006

Carbon trajectories

Year

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Car

bon

emis

sion

s (M

tC)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

s curve from 2012

~ 9% p.a. reduction

Education – the call to arms

Schools have a vital role to play in changing behaviours – not just of tomorrow’s citizens but by exporting messages to families and communities now

Ultimately we need a new value set and a new economic paradigm to live by

Our best chance of achieving this is through our young people

By building sustainable schools we can help build a sustainable world

UKCP09 Key Findings - 2050’sSummer temperatures

rise by up to around 1.4 degrees in 2020 and

2.5 degrees in 2050

Rainfall

Summer rainfall will decrease by 6% in 2020, 16% in 2050;

Winter rainfall will increase by 6% in 2020, 14% in 2050;

But rainfall on the wettest day of the year could increase by up to

41%.

Explaining the trends

Strong global warming observed since 1980

Adaptation – the scale of the challenge in the UK