Post on 27-Mar-2015
Climate Change and Social Conflict in Latin America and the Caribbean
Washington, August 29th, 2008
IPCC Fourth Assessment ReportIPCC Fourth Assessment Report
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Technical Summary of the Working group II contribution, page 10
Climate Change in LAC, expected impacts:
• Changes in precipitation trends (High confidence)
• Andean inter-tropical glaciers likely to disappear over the next decades (high confidence).
• Continuous decline in natural land cover at very high rates (high confidence)
• Risk of significant species extinctions in many areas of tropical Latin America (high confidence).
• 50% of agricultural lands likely to be subjected to desertification and salinisation in some areas, by the 2050s (high confidence)
• Increase in the number of people experiencing water stress likely to be between 7 and 77 million by the 2020s (medium confidence).
• The expected increases in sea-level rise (SLR), weather and climatic variability and extremes are very likely to affect coastal areas (high confidence).
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – chapter 13:
Rainfall and deforestation trends in LAC
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Climatic FactorsClimatic Factors Non-Climatic FactorsNon-Climatic Factors
El Niño/La Niña - Southern Oscillation External Factors
Demographic Pressure(poverty, malnutrition, water,
sanitation, sewerage, health and education)
Over-exploitation of Natural Resources
(aquifers, fisheries, mining, agriculture, forests, tourism,
ports expansion)
Pollution (Heavy metals, industrial
chemicals, detergents, organic matter, agrochemicals)
Natural Ecosystems (Biodiversity Hotspots, ecological
services, CO2)
Agriculture(food security, bio-fuels)
Water Resources(irrigation, energy, human
consumption,)
Coastal(ports, cities, natural disasters)
Human Health(tropical , viral, skin, bacterial
diseases)
Vulnerability: A Function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive
capacity
(McCarthy et al, 2001)
Vulnerability in LACVulnerability in LAC
Tourism(infrastructure, ecotourism)
Coral Reefs
Coastal Wetlands
Tropical Glaciers
Rainforest
High Mountain
Climate Change
Areas of work: priority sectors – technology transfer – strategic alliances – adaptation measures – policy strengthening
IPCC 2007a
LAC - identification of vulnerable areasLAC - identification of vulnerable areas
www.stormcenter.com
Climate Change - WaterClimate Change - Water “The current vulnerabilities observed in many regions of Latin American countries will be increased by the joint
negative effect of growing demands due to an increasing population rate for water supply and irrigation, and the expected drier conditions in many basins” IPCC – 2008
IPCC – 2008
The following are expected to be effected as outcomes of climate change:
• Precipitations (including extremes) and water vapour
• Snow and land ice • Sea level • Evapotranspiration • Soil moisture • Runoff and river discharge • Patterns of large-scale variability
Through the dynamic nature of the hydrological systems, climate change impacts on water are expected to translate into negative outcomes in the following systems and sectors:
• Ecosystems and biodiversity• Agriculture and food security, land use and
forestry• Human health• Water supply and sanitation• Settlements and infrastructure• Economy: insurance, tourism, industry,
transportation
Climate Change - FoodClimate Change - Food“Agriculture-based livelihood systems that are already vulnerable to food insecurity face
immediate risk of increased crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seeds and planting material, and loss of livestock” Wulf Killmann - FAO 2007
Ericksen, 2007- Conceptualizing food systems for global environmental change
research
A food system is vulnerable when one or more of the four components of food security – food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food system stability - is uncertain and insecure.
Concerns for food systems and food security*:
• CO2 fertilization effects;• Increase in global mean temperatures;• Gradual changes in precipitation (increase
in the frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and droughts);
• Gradual changes in precipitation (changes in timing, location and amounts of rain and snowfall);
• Impacts of increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events;
• Impacts of greater weather variability
“Climate Change And Food Security: A Framework Document” FAO 2007
Climate Change - EnergyClimate Change - Energy
“Energy insecurity stems from the welfare impact of either the physical unavailability of energy, or prices that are not competitive or overly volatile”. IEA 2007
Hydrological changes will directly affect the potential output of hydro-electric facilities – both those currently existing and possible future projects. Other energy infrastructure, such as power transmission lines, offshore drilling rigs and pipelines, may be vulnerable to damage from flooding and more intense storm events. (IPCC 2008)
Hydropower is the main electrical energy source for most countries in Latin America, and is vulnerable to large-scale and persistent rainfall anomalies due to El Niño and La Niña
Expected further glacier retreat is projected to impact the generation of hydro-electricity in countries such as Colombia and Peru
“Key World Energy Statistics” IEA 2007 “Energy Economic information system” OLADE 2007
Climate Change - HealthClimate Change - Health “Climate change currently contributes to the global burden
of disease and premature deaths (Very High Confidence)” IPCC - 2007
IPCC 2007a
Human health, incorporating physical, social and psychological well-being, depends on an adequate supply of potable water and a safe environment. Human beings are exposed to climate change directly through weather patterns (more intense and frequent extreme events), and indirectly through changes in water, air, food quality and quantity, ecosystems, agriculture, livelihoods and infrastructure.
It has been estimated that the total excess costs for the management of three climate-related diseases (diarrheal disease, malnutrition and malaria) in 2030 would be between US$ $3,000 and $17,000 million in different climate change scenarios. (Ebi, 2007*)
The total investment needs for combating diarrheal disease would be $67 billion, malnutrition $2 billion, and malaria $36 to $50 billion in 2030. (s750 scenario). (Ebi, 2007*)
*“Health impacts of climate change” report to the UNFCCC Secretariat financial and technical support
Climate Change - TourismClimate Change - Tourism
Impact Implications for tourismWarmer temperatures • Altered seasonality, heat stress for tourists, cooling costs,
changes in plant-wildlife-insect populations and distribution, infectious disease ranges
Decreasing snow cover and shrinking glaciers
• Lack of snow in winter sport destinations, increased snow-making costs, shorter winter sports seasons, aesthetics of landscape reduced
Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme storms
• Risk for tourism facilities, increased insurance costs/loss of insurability, business interruption costs
Reduced precipitation and increased evaporation in some regions
• Water shortages, competition over water between tourism and other sectors, desertification, increased wildfires threatening infrastructure and affecting demand
Increased frequency of heavy
precipitation in some regions
• Flooding damage to historic architectural and cultural assets, damage to tourism infrastructure, altered seasonality
Sea level rise • Coastal erosion, loss of beach area, higher costs to protect and maintain waterfronts
Sea surface temperatures rise
• Increased coral bleaching and marine resource and aesthetics degradation in dive and snorkel destinations
Changes in terrestrial and marine biodiversity
• Loss of natural attractions and species from destinations, higher risk of diseases in tropical-subtropical countries
More frequent and larger forest fires
• Loss of natural attractions; increase of flooding risk; damage to tourism infrastructure
Soil changes (e.g., moisture levels, erosion and acidity)
• Loss of archaeological assets and other natural resources, with impacts on destination attractions
“Climate defines the length and quality of multi-billion dollar tourism seasons and plays a major role in destination choice and tourist spending” UNWTO - 2008
IPCC 2007a
StrategyStrategy
Demographic Pressure(poverty, malnutrition, water,
sanitation, sewerage, health and education)
Over-exploitation of Natural Resources
(aquifers, fisheries, mining, agriculture, forests, tourism, ports
expansion)
Pollution (Heavy metals, industrial chemicals,
detergents, organic matter, agrochemicals)
Vulnerability
SECCI – SECCI – PillarPillar 4: Adaptation 4: Adaptation
Climate Change
Social Conflict
Water Supply
Food supply
Energy Supply
Health
Tourism
IDB
SECCI
Country
Sectors
Projects
MAINSTREAMING
Vulnerability Assessments
Adaptation pilots
Institutional capacity
Public Outreach
Climate Change sensing, monitoring, early warning
Preventive risk management
National/Sub-national/regional strategy
Climate resilient and low carbon economy
(+)
(-)
SECTORS EXTERNAL FACTORS
SECCI – Mexico SECCI – Mexico Federal and State level climate change measures IDB’s technical and financial tools
Federal Level
State Level
ME-T1089, Support for Sustainable Projects Feasibility Studies, NAFIN
ME-T1110, Support to Energy Efficiency Projects Fund, BANCOMEXT
ME-T1088, Support to Mexican Carbon Fund , FOMECAR
ME-T1082, Support the Development of the National Stern Report
ME-T1064, Support to Climatic Change National Strategy PECC
ME-T1116, T1119… Support to the preparation of the Climate Change Action Plan PEACCs (5 states)
NFP climate models. MOU with NCAR and other research centers for the development of climate scenarios to help in the development of vulnerability and adaptive capacity studies
Other sources. International funding for
adaptation and mitigation pilots
Support to the design and implementation of FEFP, and the institutional strengthening of NAFIN in EE
Assistance to CDM project promoters, CDM methodology development and
creation of validation entities
Economic quantification of the impacts of climate change to
the Mexican economy
Foster commercial bank participation
in EE projectsPECC Support
Team
Mainstreaming adaptation and mitigation
in sectors
Institutional strengthening of SEMARNAT, INE, Secretaria
Hacienda Federal Climate Change National Strategy, PECC
State Climate Change National Strategy, PEACCs (phase I, 5 states)
Tabasco, Yucatán, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, Chiapas
Sector Policies
Implementation of the selected mitigation projects
Design of final pilots
Implementation
MITIGATION
Information analysis and processing
GHG inventory
C/B analysis
Adaptation pilots
ADAPTATION
Scenario selection
Vulnerability Studies
Identification
C/B Selection
Pre-designPilot Measures
Adaptation Strategy
SECCI – ColombiaSECCI – Colombia
National and Sub-national level integrated climate change program
DNP
IDB Climate ChangeIntegrated Program
CONPES - BioFuels
Restructuring Climate Change Agenda
MAVDT Adaptation and Mitigation Programs
Political Agencies
Ideam UPME
Colciencia
FINDETER
Federación Nacionalde Biocombustibles
Implemeting Agencies
DNPHacienda
MAVDT
Min. Minas y Energía
Climate Change National and Sub-national plans
Proexport
Cerrejón
CONPES
Min. Transporte
Min. AgriculturaEcopetrol
Bancolombia
Private Sector
•MAVDT: Ministerio de ambiente, vivienda y desarrollo territorial
SECCI (4 pillars)
SECCI – NCARSECCI – NCAR
SECCI is in the process of signing a technical cooperation agreement with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR. Projects in the pipeline include:
I. MEXICO: Assessment of vulnerabilities to and anticipated impacts of climate change over the Mexican Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed using a coupled hydro-meteorological modeling tool.
Modeling of local climate over the Gulf of Mexico (particularly southern Gulf states)
Development of a coupled hydro-meteorological model for the Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed
Assessment of vulnerabilities to and anticipated impacts of climate change for the Grijalva-Usumacinta watershed and its implications to dependent communities and ecosystems
NCAR – Washington DC May 2008
SECCI – NCARSECCI – NCAR
II. PERU: The IDB is supporting the local government of Lambayeque through the development of a technical cooperation that will help in the preparation of feasibility studies for an irrigation-hydro energy project.
Generation of data from downscaled regional models that could be fed into the development of an Integrated Watersheds Management Plan for Olmos including four main watersheds (e.g. Cascajal, Olmos, Motupe, La Leche).
Assessment of expected impacts of climate change to the regional climate and the hydrological cycle with emphasis on the frequency and intensity of natural disasters and other climate events such as El Niño.
Development of future vulnerability to climate change of local communities and the planned investment.
NCAR – Washington DC May 2008
Embalse Limon
Tunel transan
dino CH2Conmutador
Túnel de
aducción CH1
Túnel de
aducciónRiego
37,000 ha en Olmos
LAMBAYEQUE
CAJAMARCA
Embalse olmos
PIURA
TC, IDB Document, T-PE1026