Post on 30-Sep-2020
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CHINA IN TOMORROW’S WORLD
Thoughts on the Emerging New Dynamics of Globalisation
International Forum Meeting – Gonville and Caius College – May 23rd 2009
Professor Alan Barrell
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Trinity College’s History and Scientific Development – Cambridge
Pride
• Trinity had a strong scientific tradition*
• First use of the word “scientist” 1835 (Whewell)
• First European Science Park – 1970 – Dr. Sir John Bradfield
*Alumni include Newton, Clerk-Maxwell, Rayleigh,Thomson, Walton, Rutherford, Aston, Lyle, both Braggs, Bohr, Hopkins, Klug, Kendrew
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A PreviewA Preview
• China – Historical Perspectives and Personal Thoughts
• What’s happening in The WorldThe World ?- Current trends and predictions
•• EntrepreneurshipEntrepreneurship – Mindset for The FutureMindset for The Future• A New BalanceNew Balance and a New World OrderNew World Order• Is China Ready for World LeadershipWorld Leadership ? – and
The Challenges for ChinaThe Challenges for China• The Vision of Vision of A World Without Borders A World Without Borders and
some concluding inspiration – for the next generation
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Casting an Eye on the World’s Financial Crisis – What’s changed ? And is it the BIGGEST CRISIS?....
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Who said these words and When
“I believe the banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered”
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Who said these words and When
“I believe the banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered”
Thomas Jefferson 1778
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And what about these…
“The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be replenished, Public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed, lest our Nation become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance”
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And what about these…
“The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be replenished, Public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed, lest our Nation become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance”
Marcus Cicero 55 BC
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Situations are what WE make them !....
It was the bestbest of times, it was the worstworst of times….It was the age of wisdom,wisdom, it was the age of foolishnessfoolishness..It was the epoch of belief,belief, it was the epoch of incredulityincredulityIt was the season of Light,Light, it was the season of DarknessDarknessIt was the spring of hopehope, it was the winter of despairdespair….We had everything everything before us, we had nothingnothing before us
We were all going direct to heavendirect to heaven, we were all going direct to ““the other placethe other place””
Charles Dickens – “A Tale of two Cities” 1859
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Global Financial Crisis - How did one survive?
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But….what’s the BIGGEST CRISIS ?
• The Financial Crisis?…..The CREDIT CRUNCH
• The Climate Crisis ?...... The CARBON CRUNCH
• The Energy Crisis ?...... The OIL CRUNCH
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aa
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Projected Increase in UK Summer TemperaturesProjected Increase in UK Summer Temperatures
observationsobservationsHadCM3 MediumHadCM3 Medium--High (SRES A2)High (SRES A2)
20032003
2040s2040s
2060s2060s
Tem
pera
ture
an
om
aly
(Tem
pera
ture
an
om
aly
(w
rtw
rt1
96
11
96
1-- 9
0)
9
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°°CC
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Climate Change Climate Change and Conflictand Conflict
–– Tens of millions of people Tens of millions of people displaceddisplaced
•• Low lying deltaic areasLow lying deltaic areas•• Small Island StatesSmall Island States
–– Food shortages where with Food shortages where with hunger and famine todayhunger and famine today
–– Water shortages in areas Water shortages in areas already with water shortagesalready with water shortages
–– Natural resources depleted withNatural resources depleted withloss of ecological goods and servicesloss of ecological goods and services
–– Increased incidence of diseaseIncreased incidence of disease–– Increased incidence of severe weather events Increased incidence of severe weather events
Climate Change, coupled with other stresses, can lead to local aClimate Change, coupled with other stresses, can lead to local and nd regional conflict and migration depending on the social, economiregional conflict and migration depending on the social, economic and c and
political circumstancespolitical circumstances
WBGU 2007
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What we DO know is that LOTS of change is happening in the World….
EnvironmentIssues
The death ofdeference
New employmentpatterns
Organisations
Globalisation
Technology
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The World in Transformation – Changes coming ever Faster
• Speed of Communication – Removal of Distance• Globalisation – and EU Enlargement – 27 Countries half a
billion people• Sources of Security• Flattening of Structures – Networks not Hierarchies• Entrepreneurial Opportunities• Impact of Technology• New Skills Learning• Permanent “temps”• Shifting Values and Changing Social Structures• Rise of Asian Superpowers – China and India – and
developments in South America and Eastern Europe.• Great Environmental conflicts and problems….
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Changes in Industrial Structure - UK % of Total Employment - UK Government Foresight Report
0102030405060708090
100
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Manufacturing
All Services
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Changes in Industrial Structure - Europe % of Total Employment
0102030405060708090
100
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Manufacturing
All Services
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The Changing Face of Globalisation – Realities for Europe, US and The World
• Two fifths of the Worlds people live in the two fastest growing large economies – China and India – FACT
• Education, Wealth Creation and New Knowledge are at the heart of Economic Planning in Asia
• Growth in Asia is far ahead of Europe.
• The desire to LEAD is strong in Asia
• CASH is in place in the Asian economies – as well as brainpower.
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Manufacturing has Migrated !Migrated !
Courtesy of Asia Pacific Foundation
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The West’s Competition ??
Courtesy of Asia Pacific Foundation
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The Competitive Threat “Today’s Peacock is tomorrow’s feather duster” –
Think about it……..
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Sources of Competitiveness
Creativity Risk
Speed Reputation
Cost Values
Learning Information
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Some Economic Indicators – How are key Countries doing?
• Can the trend continue?• What if China pulls out of US $ - moving its reserves?• Do the Trade Balance differences matter? – India and China?
GDP % Change Ind. Prod. % Trade BalanceUS $ Bn
Foreign ReservesUS $ Bn
China + 9.5 + 8.9 +60 2.0 TrillionsAnd growing!
India + 8.6 + 8.0 - 25 160
Britain + 2.9 + 0.1 - 49
Euro Area + 2.1 + 1.0 + 86
USA + 3.9 + 3.5 - 679
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India/China Vs The G6
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Innovation and the Impact of Technology -Traffic in one day in 2003:
All international phone calls1971
All airline passengers1975
All mobile phones 1984
All emails1992
All SMS1998Source: Analysys, World Bank and ITU
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Three Converging Revolutions Three Pervasive Technology Platforms
BIO TECH Pharmaceuticals
Diagnostics Research/Info
Tools Industrial
Genomics Bioinformatics
Proteomics
INFO TECH Hardware Software
Communications
NANO TECH Electrical Structural
Biomedical Energy & Environment
Biosensors BiochipsBioelectronics
Microfluidics Nanobiotechnology
Drug Delivery
Nanodevices Nanosensors
Nanoelectronics
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Innovation, Invention, Science and Technology
“90% of all the scientists born in
the human race are alive today”
Prof. John Story - INSEAD
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• Universities and centres of academic excellence• Entrepreneurs with marketable ideas and products
• Business angels and established seed funds
• Sources of early stage venture capital
• Core of successful large companies
• Quality management teams and talent
• Supportive infrastructure
• Affordable space for growing businesses
• Access to capital markets
• Attractive living environment and accommodation
source :- Gibbons - Stanford University 1998
Characteristics for high technology Regionsegions
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Who likes HEROES ? Are Innovators Heroes ?
The Spirit of Exploration and Adventure
Thinking of Change and Innovation -Is History helpful ? Thinking of a few great Innovators….change agents….
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Do HEROES change World ? – what are they good at? ……could it be….
• Exploring……• Discovering….• Risking………• Believing…….• Creating……..• Changing…….• Enabling……..• Visualising…..
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A REAL Hero….he changed the WORLD ! From a prison cell
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A Hero’s Home for 18 Years….Could WE have survived it ?
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Familiar Face….
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Heroes are usually Controversial….
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Heroes can show Humility
“BE the Change you want to see in the World”….
Mahatma Ghandi
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How BIG is the World ?
“The World is big enough for everyone’s
needs – but it is too small for the GREED of
one man !”
Mahatma Gandhi
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A Hero with ImaginationImagination….
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Einstein on IMAGINATION….
“Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world”
Albert Einstein 1879 - 1955
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“You look at things and ask - why? but I dream of
things that never were and ask -
George Bernard Shaw
why not?”
So who and what are these Entrepreneurs ? What makes an Entrepreneur ? Is it a way of thinking
A Mindset ?A Mindset ?
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Who ever heard of Albert-Szent-Gyorgyi ?
He, a Nobel Laureate said………
“Creativity is no more than looking at the same thing as everyone else and
thinking something different.”
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Discovery comes from within…through seeking…….
• “The Source of Real Discovery consists not in seeking new Landscapes …..
• But in having NEW EYES”
Marcel Proust
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Schumpeter (1911) on Entrepreneurs
“Entrepreneurs blow gales of creative destruction.”
Role of the entrepreneur in transforming economies by developing:
• New products• New methods of production• New ways of organizing• Untapped raw materials• Enhanced competitive performance
Josef Schumpeter Vienna 1911
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Entrepreneurs CHANGE the World ……sometimes NOT by design or on purpose…….
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The drivers for change….Socio-Political….Entrepreneurial Influence ??....
(Prof Shai Vyakarnam – Cambridge 2008)
Berlin WallHasselhof China
India MigrationsWithin and intoEurope
SingleEconomic system
Completely new marketsIs there a shift in
economic centre of gravity?
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More examples….Entrepreneurship and People / Society
Making a united Europe a reality
Transforming lives of the poor
Democratising knowledge – “Education Without Borders” – “Liberate Minds”
Creating breakthrough technology enterprises
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Are we nurturing “Prepared Minds”?
“Where observation is concerned,
Chance favours only the prepared mind”
Louis Pasteur - 1854
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Leadership, Vision and Achievement – Balancing Vision with Plans and Action
• Vision without Action is a Daydream….
• Action without vision is a Nightmare….
Japanese Proverb – Anon
And how about mistakes ?....
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Knowing when Imaginative Ideas may be successfully employed….
“There is nothing more powerful than an
idea whose time has come”
Jules Verne
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Would you invest in this team ? – Do they look imaginative enough?....Do they look risky? Was their
time right when this picture was taken?
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Yes- appearances can be deceptive….those who risked investing in them made a lot of $$$$$$. And their ideas
changed the World ! Their time had come !....Their time had come !....
Microsoft Corporation, 1978
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And so to CHINA….
Two more Chinese Heroes – who changed the World……to introduce some facts, realities, thoughts and personal views on
China in TomorrowChina in Tomorrow’’s Worlds World
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Confucius and “imagining the middle way”….
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““To get rich is To get rich is GLORIOUSGLORIOUS””
Deng Xiaoping 1982
And a more recent Chinese Hero
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中国 (zhong guo)
“The Middle Kingdom”:“The centre of the world”?
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““To To Impartially Impartially
Adhere to the Adhere to the Middle WayMiddle Way””
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The Book of History
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““允执厥中允执厥中”” ““To Impartially To Impartially Adhere to the Adhere to the Middle WayMiddle Way””
Emperor Yu
Emperor Shun
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The Phenomenon of Ancient China – Creativity and Inventiveness – some of the Inventions – but did
they innovate?....
• The first lamps• Magnetic Compass• The Camera• Gunpowder• Paper for writing• Printing• Iron and Steel Smelting• Copper and Bronze ware• Oil Drilling and Production• Coal Mining• Pottery and Porcelain• Wine making and tea and tea culture• Early Astronomy• Sericulture – gave us Silk• Seismography• Traditional Medicine and Anaesthetics• Acupunture• Vaccination against Smallpox• The Hot Air Balloon• The Soushi Calendar• Decimal and Binary Mathematics
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Why do some in the West worry about a strong and growing China ?
Do they suspect…. A Growing Sense of Power and
Superiority +
Newly Acquired Economic Power =
Threat to the World!?
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My understanding – in China, still today…. A Philosophy that
Seeks to Avoid Extremes
and Hold a Balanced, Moderate Position.
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Lets put MODERN CHINA into our picture and context….Some of China’s Achievements
• Compound growth of GDP at 9% since 1995, sixth in the world
• One of top 10 trading nations • The most popular FDI destination• The largest mobile phone market • The second largest PC market • The third largest advertising market
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Engineering & Technology Resource
Source: Issues in Science & Engineering, Spring, 2007
Four-Year Bachelor Degrees in Engineering, Computer Science and Information Technology
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Deg
rees
aw
arde
d
USA India China China 50%
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Engineering & Technology PhD degrees
Source: Issues in Science & Engineering, Spring, 2007
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China’s Urbanization
• 1993: 28%• 2004: 42%
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Growth Potentials
• China's semiconductor market is growing 18-20% year on year
• Laptop PCs enjoyed the fastest growth of 39% in 2002 and will continue at similar speed in 2003
• Mobile phone users have been increasing at 5 mln per month
• The number of Internet users is expected to double over the next 5 years
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World’s Top 10 Trading Nations in 2005
Source: Hong Kong Marine Department
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Automobiles Sales in China (1978-2007)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Aut
omob
iles
Sale
s (m
illio
n)
China Grew While We Relaxed – a Canadian Perspective
2007 Canadian Vehicle Sales
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Fixed line Mobile
(Mill
ion) Dec-00
Oct-06
Telecom Growth in China
CAGR = 21%
CAGR = 40%
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China’s High Technology Plan 863 Priorities (1)
• ICT• Biotechnology and
pharmaceuticals• New materials• Advanced energy systems• Resources and
environmental
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China’s High Technology Plan 863 Priorities (2)
• Advanced agriculture• Advanced manufacturing• Ocean technology• Global monitoring and
aeronautics
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Chinese Rocketry and Space Exploration
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The Market for Everything
• Urban population 450 mln, 160 cities over 1mln
• Emerging of middle class • Privatisation of housing• Increasing attention to
well-beings• Availability of Internet
• Enormous market for FMCG
• lifestyle products • Home improvement• Healthcare and fitness
products• E-learning services
Western type of consumerism is mainly driven by 15-25 years age group (70 mln)
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The World’s Factory
China already produces:
• 60% of world’s toys• 55% of world’s shoes• 60% of world’s air-conditioners • 60% of world’s microwave ovens
Now more cars, laptops, ICs, mobile phones…
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What Can China Offer? – Entrepreneurial Potential is great
• 750 mln people live in the countryside
• Returning overseas students and local MBAs
• Science and Engineering students on the rise
• Increasing usage of ISO accredited process
• Easy access to other Asian markets
• unlimited supply of cheap labour
• Local management talent more available
• R&D localisation become feasible
• Quality of outsourced manufacturing
• Convenient re-export base
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Potential of China - Healthcare
• Land area comparable to US• Huge population as consumers• Major economic giant• Major internal market
China Healthcare has more than • 320,000 healthcare institutions• 75,000 hospitalsOver 20 biotech parks covering • Shanghai• Beijing• Guangzhou• Shenzhen • Chengdu• WuhanFurther examples Biotech/PharmaProduction facilities development in• Pudong, Shanghai; Hangzhou,
Zheijang ProvinceChina is one of the world’s largestsupplier of raw materials to pharma
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And in Pharmaceuticals -
China -Seventh Largest Pharmaceutical Market 2005 – now Fifth
Top 10 1996 2000 2005 20101 US US US US2 Japan Japan Japan Japan3 Germany Germany Germany Germany4 France France France France5 Italy UK UK China6 Brazil Italy Italy UK7 UK China China Italy8 Spain Brazil Brazil Canada9 Korea Canada Canada Spain
10 Canada Spain Spain Brazil
11 China
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Biotechnology Market in China• Biotech in China started in
1984 • Initially concentrated on
agribio - food security• Medical biotech has
developed gradually• Biotech and TCM synergy
• In 2002, China’s biotech market was $2.4bn
• Predicted 2008 - $10bn• Participation in the Human
Genome (HGP) & International Rice Genome Sequencing Project (IRGSP)
• Now a major biotech player in Asia
Approx 600 companies in 2000- Estimate 2008 1,500
$2.4bn sales in 2000
Source:ArgosBiotech, 2003
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Key Geographical Areas – Biotech and TCM – Traditional Chinese Medicine
Centres for TCM
Human Genome & Genetics
AcademyKey Clinical Research
Centers
Biotech/Pharma Prodn,Pudong
Biotech Research Park, Guangzhou
Biopharm
Park,Xi’an
University
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• Telecoms, information technology• Transportation, power generation• Chemicals and petrochemicals • Bio-tech • Agriculture/ food processing
UK and China ….UK Capabilities fit well with China's priorities areas
Potential opportunities also with:Consumer goods, environment and pollution control, healthcare, education and training, and financial services
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Success factors for Working with China – Advice to prospective Western Partners….
• Leading-edge technologies available in China – and Chinese companies looking for top technology too
• Quality & customer service – the ethos is embedded now• Local supply chain – needs to be checked• Local partners/employees – the KEY!• Cultural Understanding Can you “think like Chinese?”• Regional focus – China is a BIG country – study regional
expertise• Consensus among UK employees – be honest and clear!• Commitment from the top management• Long-term perspective + acceptable return on investment
– Patience
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Many positive trends…but – China has Environmental Challenges as well as Opportunities
– A lot to do !....
• 40% of cities face water shortages• Soil erosion on 37% of country’s land mass• Serious acid (<pH 5.6) rain in 41% of cities• US$125 billion environmental spending by
2010 (similar to the forecast investment in the Alberta Tar Sand projects)
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And there are other big ChallengesChallenges
• Imperative of continued Economic growth• Stresses of continued Urbanisation• Social and Community issues • Cultural and Political evolution as
Education reaches more of the populace• “Liberating minds”• “Go Abroad” Philosophy and Policy• Leadership, Government, Governance and
Regulation.
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ModernModern China has risen as a result of its
learning from the West.
What can the West learn
from China?
PACIFIC OCEANChina
USA
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Globalisation, China, The West and Opportunity Opportunity – Exploiting DiversityExploiting Diversity – Cultural Exchange and
Understanding
EnvironmentIssues
The death ofdeference
New employmentpatterns
Organisations
Globalisation
Technology
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Opennessand trust
Clear jointobjectives
Long-termRelationship
Proactivenot Reactive
Top-Levelcommitment
Involvement ofrelevant disciplines
Flexibility
Working Together
Total QualityManagement
PartnershipsPartnerships-Never Easy!Impossible without Tolerance and Cultural Understanding – but the best way forward
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“Brainpower and Brain Circulation”- Building Structures to develop Knowledge and Skills – and
spreading the Spirit of EnterpriseSpirit of Enterprise Worldwide
Transparency and Open Innovation
Vision of “A World without Borders
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Our “Can Do” summing up….for The Next Generation….and moving towards A World A World
Without BordersWithout BordersIMAGINE AND HAVE VISION
CREATEINNOVATE
INVENT“WORLDTHINK” – GLOBAL VIEW
ACQUIRE KNOWLEDGEPLAN AND PRACTICE
NETWORK! NETWORK!INSPIRE OTHERS
TRUST AND RESPECTENJOY!
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In In Pursuit of Excellence !of Excellence !
“Excellence can be achieved, if we: Care more than others think is wise, Risk more than others think is safe,
Dream more than others think is practical, Expect more than others think is possible.”
Deborah Johnson-Ross
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Write on my Blog – if you want to say more about A World Without Borders….
……and for more information……
www.alanbarrell.com
alan@alanbarrell.com