Central US Earthquake Risks & Their Distant Impacts

Transcript of Central US Earthquake Risks & Their Distant Impacts

Or, Why the ‘Fly-Over’ States are More Important than We Thought

Phyllis Steckel, RG

Earthquake Insight LLCWashington, Mo.

Earthquake Risks in the Central US

Hazards RisksGround-shakingLiquefactionLateral spreadingSlumpingLandslidesAftershocks

Direct loss of life & property

Business interruptionUninsured lossesLoss of infrastructureLoss of marketLoss of market share

“Fly-Over States”East & West Coasts

haveMost populationEconomic power Political heavyweights International

gatewaysTechnology centers“Emerging”

incubators

“Fly-Over States” Unique process

facilities and industrial resources

Critical transportation corridors

National well-being depends on Central US

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=c_YZtN4hoq0XzM&tbnid=X2B-toqKB_KtrM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.weatherusa.net/skycamnet/&ei=_H-BUqjACvGCyAHP9YEY&psig=AFQjCNESAOCqD3kwScatU0Ct5hM55VEE_Q&ust=1384304908381912

Key Commodities

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=5V3RfFCzovLHYM&tbnid=QlPcHFtAw40HgM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.martellcropprojections.com/SampleCropReports/US-Corn-Production-Map&ei=uIKBUuWPOo_OyAGV6IDwBg&psig=AFQjCNGNzwSSvGhzMcIbFHWm10W92b9YeQ&ust=1384305713160310

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=8IjIClvTHSF_cM&tbnid=tHcxMgzoseY5SM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.docstoc.com/docs/22296120/United-States-Soybeans&ei=K4KBUp31OsiQyQH0nYCwCw&psig=AFQjCNH2U_AV6UQYQ0PrlnchGeQijymKZA&ust=1384305459511112

New Madrid AreaCorporation’s

largest soybean seed production plant

$60M investment, built in 2011

50-acre footprint; 129-acre site

65 employees

New Madrid AreaPrimary aluminum – North America’s

largest foil producerElectrical and cable supply marketsFoundry alloy for vehicle wheels, hubs, &

gas pump nozzles

New Madrid Area

Coal-fired power plant

On banks of Mississippi River

Third-largest electric utility in Missouri

Southeast Missouri

City-owned power plant

Coal-fired

Straddles liquefaction features from 1811-12 earthquakes

‘Swamp east’ Missouri

Little River Drainage DistrictLRDD formed by

landowners many other drainage districts!

Designed and built 1908-1928 infrastructure

Many engineers & workers from Panama Canal project

Little River Drainage District

Little River Drainage DistrictDiverts runoff from the

Ozarks to the Mississippi

Channelized surface waters between the Mississippi and the St. Francis rivers

Productive industrialized agriculture now

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Stfrancisrivermap.png

“The Delta” of Missouri & ArkansasWater table near

surface

Near-flat surface topography

Shows evidence of past uplifts & downdrops from earthquakes

Northeast ArkansasMini-mills steel

recycling

Second-largest steel producing area in the US

Mostly structural steel

New $1.1B+ steel “super project” begun in 2013

Northeast Arkansas

Steel industry suppliers

Arkansas Aeroplex – one of longest runways in US

Engineered drainages

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=4vtGvRgJBvK7vM&tbnid=N6WXS8-bZrsIzM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkansas_International_Airport&ei=Q4-BUsKqBcWyygGp84DwBw&bvm=bv.56146854,d.aWc&psig=AFQjCNEQzJ728u2U8u_qL2gCrrnFTAHSWA&ust=1384308771081764

Regional Critical FacilitiesPaducah Gaseous Diffusion

Plant – located in floodplain

Opened in 1952 as only US-owned uranium enrichment facility

Owned by US Dept of Energy; privately operated

Closure, decontamination & demolition in progress

Regional Critical Facilities

Critical National Geospatial Intelligence Agency facilities are located in St. Louis and Arnold, Mo.

Critical TransportationAir transport &

logistics

Railroad

Trucking

River barge

Pipeline

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=sa9H24atVUQknM&tbnid=Wn0d6Vgk-R3nrM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.atlp.org/&ei=ElyCUr3iHom6yAH__4GQDg&bvm=bv.56146854,d.aWc&psig=AFQjCNEyx3LLIyLyuJgzvEWp_QvUK-J9EQ&ust=1384361319285266

Air TransportMemphis: world’s

busiest cargo airportCargo super-hub‘America’s

Distribution Center’FedEx (30,000+) in

MEM

17% of Memphis workers in transportation – highest in the country

Critical Rail TransportationRail transport

system at/near capacity

Critical concentration in central US

Memphis Intermodal serves 26% US population, 30% of US output

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=rzdhHvRhrtOVmM&tbnid=cuFGzonhrEQQiM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/freight_story/congestion.htm&ei=8V-CUvq2KOGfyQH1lIC4Ag&bvm=bv.56146854,d.aWc&psig=AFQjCNF_GVVWanedPJOP1f5fb3oGQVJ68A&ust=1384362345253746

Critical Highway TransportationMemphis, Little

Rock, & St. Louis: busiest east-west trucking corridors in US

Interstates 55, 44, 64, 57, 70, 40

Hundreds of trucking terminals

Critical River TransportationMoves commodities

within one-third of US

Memphis is fourth-largest inland port in US

St. Louis is second-largest by ton-miles

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=DANGYX0Lke6nhM&tbnid=-8ijmum4gYsxYM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://portno.com/barges&ei=SGaCUpStKea42wXWwIG4BA&psig=AFQjCNElQB0W3K4JANGFOQV4MREUxQn_Pw&ust=1384363931137500

Critical River Transportation Memphis #1 in

foreign import tonnage

~20,000+ jobs

~$10B+ economic impact

Coal, grain, ores, steel, cotton,

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=jPeAada0iOZTzM&tbnid=z_-7HqiysXBsIM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article/89882/mississippi-river-drops-threatening-barge-traffic?page=all&ei=UmiCUoIFiP_bBZP1gaAE&bvm=bv.56146854,d.aWc&psig=AFQjCNGmy8MrTI2ZSgAL4ldTPWXW-IaB2A&ust=1384364493255273

Critical Pipeline Transportation

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=qaolcnmIgdZ1hM&tbnid=fTkLeXSaejZ57M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/analysis_publications/ngpipeline/transcorr_map.html&ei=lmKCUtfVGJT8yAGzqIHwCQ&psig=AFQjCNE-Ljp83m7HDfT3-2gjc6WQB_3Iww&ust=1384362627935975

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=sa4Jmb1-RIhAwM&tbnid=z0jaYHLIgjbk1M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.pipeline101.com/overview/products-pl.html&ei=6WKCUsiNIcaIygHE-IHgBg&psig=AFQjCNE-Ljp83m7HDfT3-2gjc6WQB_3Iww&ust=1384362627935975

Critical Inventory ExposureMemphis inventories

surgical supplies, house-hold goods, auto parts, pharmaceuticals, etc.

Order by midnight, next-day delivery

Headquarters & customers elsewhere

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=viazEjxiy2_7OM&tbnid=cNHVUsvCwXyuPM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.labrepco.com/store/categories/view/id/3208/category/Surgical_Instruments&ei=PGSCUqjKNKHT2wWwxYGwBA&psig=AFQjCNEllnJ2ntrJg9xiHDNM69wau2hxfw&ust=1384363430155037

‘Fly-Over’ States Critical

Much of the country’s inventory and resources are located in or travel through

the central US.

Much of the country’s inventory

and resources are exposed to earthquake hazards and

earthquake risks that are generally

unrecognized.

Sustainable Disaster RecoveryDepends on

recognizing potential big-picture impacts

Depends on leadership to take action to mitigate big-picture impacts

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=Dxq9Kf0cbw8hIM&tbnid=WGgXiDrxznm6aM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://epiphenom.fieldofscience.com/2010/09/seeing-big-picture.html&ei=Qo-CUpD4COPA2gX3xIHoBA&bvm=bv.56146854,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNHpFxAVBuf0WvNzo4comSbmExjNfA&ust=1384374440423792

Any questions?Phyllis Steckel

psteckel@charter.net

Central US Earthquake Risks & Their Distant Impacts

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