CBRFC Water Supply Training

Goals

• Review methodologies and procedures• Increase consistency between forecasters• Improve understanding of basin hydrology

Agenda

Oct 9: Verification / Climate Correlations

Nov 4: Procedures

Nov 12: Basin Project Reports

Nov 5: Forecast Tools

• Overview and General Discussion• Verification – Kevin and Lisa (2 hours)

– New Capabilities– Basin Assignment

• Climate Correlations – Bill (1/2 hour)• Climate Correlation demo – Kevin and Drew

(1/2 hour)

Oct 9: Verification / Climate Correlations

• Water supply procedure list – Brenda / Greg• Basin documentation: best practices and

baseline template – Greg• Data gathering: obtaining data, processing

data, database, shef coding – Brenda• Coordination with NRCS and WFOs – Brenda• Product Dissemination: ESGs, publications,

western water, email – Greg

Nov 4: Procedures

• SWS theory – Kevin• SWS practical – Steve• ESP and XEFS – Kevin• ESPADP – Greg• ESP and ESPADP batch - John

Nov 5: Forecast Tools

• Verification and climate assignment results:– Great Basin – Brent– Green Basin – Bill– Upper Colorado – Brenda– San Juan + Gunnison – Tracy– Lower Colorado – Greg

• Overall discussion: How do we come up with our number?

Nov 12: Basin Project Reports

Format

• Formal talks• Open discussion• “Homework” assingment• Interesting and fun

Opportunity #1: Important Forecast Program

Opportunity #2: CBRFC Control

Unlike many other most NWS programs, CBRFC has near total freedom over forecast procedures, services, etc:

-1940s – CBRFC established for water supply forecasting-1990s – SWS developed at CBRFC

Major opportunity for prototyping concepts for other NWS programs

Opportunity #3: ESP

“Many irrigation interests, reservoir operators, and other water management agencies now possess sufficient sophistication to demand and efficiently utilize water supply forecasts of a probabilistic nature for a variety of time periods.”-Twedt, et al, 1977

“ESP is a valuable tool when used as part of an operational decision support system for water management. The probabilistic information allows decision makers to incorporate risk into operational decisions.”-WARFS Demonstration Report, 1994

“Now that I’ve been using ESP to support decisions in my operations, I cannot imagine not using it” -paraphrasing a water manager in 2008

Opportunity #4: Verification

“You guys keep telling me how you make your forecasts and how great they are, but you’ve never shown me anything that proves it.”-Anonymous customer, 2008

New verification capabilities this year (THANKS LISA!) will allow the first ever objective and robust treatment of this question.

More Opportunities

1. NIDIS

2. Interaction with research community

New Paradigms?

SWS ESP

Forecaster

User

NRCS

New Paradigms?

SWS ESP

Forecaster

User

NRCS

ESP &XEFS

Forecaster

User

NRCSVIPER

Discussion

• What areas of the forecast process would you like more explanation?

• Where do you see opportunities for improvement?

• Is there information or support that you’re not getting that would help you?

• Is there too much information?