Canada’s Nuclear Future So What’s Going On Up there Anyway eh??

WNFC 2008 Miami

Milton Caplan

President, MZConsulting Inc.

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Canada

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Why Canadians Winter in Florida

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Setting the Scene

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Hydro Provinces

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Fossil Provinces

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Nuclear Provinces

14,000 MW20 Units

630 MW1Unit

630 MW 1Unit

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Canada Nuclear Structure

• Canada has a long history of nuclear power • 1945 test reactor ZEEP at Chalk River

achieved first self-sustained nuclear reaction outside the US

• Nuclear is a federal responsibility• AECL is federally owned• Electricity is the responsibility of the

provinces

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The Players

• Nuclear Utilities– Ontario Power Generation – Bruce Power – Hydro Quebec– New Brunswick Power

• Atomic Energy of Canada Limited– Technology holder/Vendor– National Laboratory

• Universities (UNENE)• CNSC• Industry (OCI)

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The Markets

• Ontario• Quebec• New Brunswick• Alberta

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Ontario

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Ontario

• Ontario electricity system was in crisis• Nuclear fleet was nearing its end of life• The coal fleet was to be closed by

government policy• Transmission was insufficient to support

generation renewal• Government acted

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Ontario

• Last summer submitted its 20 year plan (IPSP) for approval– Reduce demand through conservation– Replace coal with renewables and gas– Renew nuclear through refurbishment or new

build– Implement transmission improvements to

support generation and system reliability

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Ontario

• Refurbishment of Bruce 1&2 underway• Refurbishment of Bruce 3&4 committed• Review of Refurbishment of Pickering B• New build process announced

– Tendering process underway to select technology – RFP issued for 2000 to 3500 MW– Utility to be selected– Decision expected by year end

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Quebec

• One nuclear station Gentilly 2 • About 3% of electricity generation• Nearing end of life• Important to grid stability• Refurbishment decision expected by this

summer

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New Brunswick

• One nuclear station Point Lepreau• About 25% of electricity generation• Reached end of life• Shut down end of March for refurbishment• New build under consideration

– Feasibility study under review for ACR-1000– To be implemented on a private sector commercial

basis– Decision expected later this year

New Brunswick

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Alberta

• Primarily coal fired generation• Large growth due to oil sands development• Need for large amounts of gas to support oil

extraction• Application for new nuclear has been submitted to

the regulator– Project conceived by Energy Alberta– Bruce Power has recently purchased Energy Alberta– Project to be for 2000 to 4000 MW– To be competitively bid

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Saskatchewan

• 1929 Eldorado Mining began prospecting • 1953 Uranium City- first uranium mine in

Saskatchewan • Canada is the largest producer of uranium from its

mines in Saskatchewan• Produced 9327 TU in 2007• Progress on Cigar Lake • Government now interested in investigating more

involvement in the nuclear fuel cycle

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AECL

• Crown Corporation (owned by Federal Government)

• Established in 1952• Research and Development at Chalk River• Designer of the CANDU technology• Developing the ACR-1000• Working with Team CANDU for new projects• Government review of AECL underway with the

potential for partial or total privatization

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Looking Forward

• Refurbishments continuing in Ontario and New Brunswick

• New Build– Ontario to decide on technology and owner– New Brunswick to determine new unit

feasibility– Alberta considering new build

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Canada’s Nuclear Future

• Canada has a big nuclear future as nuclear power continues to play an important role in the energy mix

• But What’s next – big questions remain– Technology – will Canada build a LWR?– Who will build in Ontario? – What is the future of AECL?

Stay Tuned2008 is expected to be a big decision

year!

And THANK YOU for inviting me to Miami!!