California’s New Three-Strikes Law

Benefits, Costs, and Alternatives

http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB4009/index1.html

(Early 1990s study of projected impact of proposed new California Three Strikes law)

Figure 3 — Distribution of California General-Fund Appropriations, FY94

Figure 4 — Budgetary Squeeze on Higher Education and Other Services, FY02

1994 2002

Rand also estimated that the new law would lower serious crime rates significantly

Cost – cuts in public services

Benefit – lower crime rates

October 2005

A Primer: Three Strikes - The Impact After More Than a Decade

(http://www.lao.ca.gov/2005/3_Strikes/3_strikes_102005.htm)

African American 37% White 26% Hispanic 33% Other 4%

California National

There is no evidence that the California “Three Strikes” law has had any impact at all on crime rates and this is particularly true of serious/violent crime.

In November 2004, voters rejected Prop 66 which would have modified the Strikes law.

The vote was close (47% voted Yes) ---- so there will likely be future attempts to modify the law.