Transcript of California Standards Test and CAHSEE Correlation Use of Student Data for Targeted Preemptive...
- Slide 1
- California Standards Test and CAHSEE Correlation Use of Student
Data for Targeted Preemptive Intervention November 1, 2006 Dr.
Janis Fries-Martinez, Principal Gerardo Loera, Assistant Principal
Polytechnic High School Los Angeles Unified School District 2
- Slide 2
- In This Presentation You Will Learn: How to accurately identify
10 th grade students who need intervention for the CAHSEE before
they take it in the spring How to identify a target group of
students to strategically raise the percentage of students scoring
Proficient or Above on the CAHSEE in order to meet AYP requirements
How to predict, with significant amount of certainty, which 10 th
grade students will pass and fail the CAHSEE on their initial
try
- Slide 3
- No Child Left Behind and State Accountability Criteria - CAHSEE
AYP and API are dependent in large part to CAHSEE scores AYP:
Annual Measurable Objectives are measured mainly by success of 10
th grade students taking the CAHSEE the 1 st time Problem: High
failure rate on CAHSEE Problem: Not enough students scoring
Proficient or Above on CAHSEE CAHSEE GraduationAPIAYP
- Slide 4
- Guiding Questions How do we effectively target students for
pre- emptive intervention for success on the CAHSEE before they
initially take it? How do we proactively identify students that
need additional support? Do we know which students are likely to
pass the test or get a proficient score ?
- Slide 5
- A passing score on the CAHSEE is: 350 or greater on the English
Language Arts portion of the test AND 350 or greater on the
Mathematics portion of the test A proficient score is: 380 or
greater on the English portion of the test 380 or greater on the
Mathematic portion of the test What are Passing and Proficient
Scores?
- Slide 6
- Some Possible Attributes Contributing To Success On The CAHSEE?
Grades/Marks Demographics Socioeconomic status Learning environment
CELDT Scores Language Classification Special Education Status CST
Scores Periodic Assessments Etc.
- Slide 7
- Studied CST/CAHSEE Correlation at Different High Schools Test
Groups: Poly HS: Class of 2006 Poly HS: Class of 2007 Santee HS:
Class of 2007 LAUSD Class of 2008 (37,000+ scores) LAUSD Class of
2007 (36,000+ scores)
- Slide 8
- Polytechnic High School Class of 2007 9 th Grade ELA CST vs. 10
th Grade ELA CAHSEE Matched Scores Note: 800+ scores included
Source: Secondary Student Information System
- Slide 9
- South LA High School #1 - Class of 2007 9th Grade ELA CST vs.
10th Grade ELA CAHSEE Matched Scores
- Slide 10
- LAUSD Class of 2008 - 9th Grade ELA CST vs. 10th Grade ELA
CAHSEE Matched Scores Note: 37,000+ scores included Source: School
Information Branch
- Slide 11
- LAUSD Class of 2008 - 9th Grade Algebra I CST vs. 10th Grade
Math CAHSEE Matched Scores Note: 23,282 scores included Source:
School Information Branch
- Slide 12
- LAUSD Class of 2008 - 9th Grade Geometry CST vs. 10th Grade
Math CAHSEE Matched Scores Note: 8,410 scores included Source:
School Information Branch
- Slide 13
- LAUSD Class of 2007 - 9th Grade MATH CST vs. 10th Grade Math
CAHSEE Matched Scores Note: 36,190 scores included Source: School
Information Branch
- Slide 14
- Math CAHSEE Predictors Mathematics Algebra I Model 9th Grade
CST score of 271 or higher on Algebra I CST predicts a passing
score of 350 or higher on the CAHSEE 9 th Grade CST score of 334 or
higher predicts a Proficient score of 380 or higher on the CAHSEE
Mathematics Geometry Model 9 th Grade CST score of 214 or higher
predicts a passing score of 350 or higher on the CAHSEE 9 th Grade
CST score of 280 or higher predicts Proficient score of 380 or
higher on the CAHSEE (AYP)
- Slide 15
- Summary of Predictors English Language Arts Model Based on
LAUSD Class of 2008 (37,000+ scores) 9 th Grade English CST score
of 292 or higher predicts a passing score of 350 or higher on the
CAHSEE 9 th Grade CST score of 346 or higher predicts Proficient
score of 380 or higher on the CAHSEE (To meet AYP)
- Slide 16
- Data from the LAUSD School Information Branch Class of 2008
Model: 292 ELA CST = 350 ELA CAHSEE Predicted Results PassFail
Actual Results Pass240712914 Fail35498212 This is a Confusion
Matrix as described in the work of Kohavi and Provost, 1998
Therefore the model for predicting a passing score or failing score
on the English portion of the CAHSEE based on the 9 th grade CST is
correct 83.4% of the time. ELA Reliability Matrix for predicting
Passing CAHSEE ELA score 83.4% accurate 26985 Total 11761
Accuracy
- Slide 17
- ELA Reliability Matrix for predicting Passing CAHSEE ELA
Proficient or Above score 84.6% accurate Data from the LAUSD School
Information Branch Class of 2008 Model: 346 ELA CST = 380 ELA
CAHSEE Predicted Results Prof/AboveBelow Prof Actual Results
Prof/Above112882135 Below Prof384621477 This is a Confusion Matrix
as described in the work of Kohavi and Provost, 1998 Therefore this
model is correct 84.6% of the time.
- Slide 18
- Algebra I - Reliability Matrix for predicting Passing CAHSEE
Math Passing score 72.9% accurate Data from the LAUSD School
Information Branch Class of 2008 Model: 271 Alg. I CST = 350 MATH
CAHSEE Predicted Results PassFail Actual Results Pass112312930
Fail33835737 This is a Confusion Matrix as described in the work of
Kohavi and Provost, 1998 Therefore the model for predicting a
passing or failing score on the Mathematics portion of the CAHSEE
based on the 9 th grade CST is correct 72.9% of the time.
- Slide 19
- Algebra I Reliability Matrix for predicting Passing CAHSEE Math
Proficient or Above score 85.1% accurate Data from the LAUSD School
Information Branch Class of 2008 Model: 334 Alg. I CST = 380 MATH
CAHSEE Predicted Results Prof/AboveBelow Prof Actual Results
Prof/Above26542742 Below Prof72617159 This is a Confusion Matrix as
described in the work of Kohavi and Provost, 1998 Therefore the
model for predicting a score on the Mathematics portion of the
CAHSEE based on the 9 th grade CST is correct 85.1% of the
time.
- Slide 20
- Geometry - Reliability Matrix for predicting Passing CAHSEE
Math Passing score 88.7% accurate Data from the LAUSD School
Information Branch Class of 2008 Model: 214 Geom. CST = 350 MATH
CAHSEE Predicted Results PassFail Actual Results Pass737468
Fail88682 This is a Confusion Matrix as described in the work of
Kohavi and Provost, 1998 Therefore the model for predicting a
passing score or failing score on the Mathematics portion of the
CAHSEE based on the 9 th grade Geometry CST is correct 88.7% of the
time.
- Slide 21
- Geometry Reliability Matrix for predicting Passing CAHSEE Math
Proficient or Above score 82.1% accurate Data from the LAUSD School
Information Branch Class of 2008 Model: 334 Geom. I CST = 380 MATH
CAHSEE Predicted Results Prof/AboveBelow Prof Actual Results
Prof/Above4539721 Fail7812369 This is a Confusion Matrix as
described in the work of Kohavi and Provost, 1998 Therefore the
model for predicting a Proficient or Above score on the Mathematics
portion of the CAHSEE based on the 9 th grade Geometry CST is
correct 82.1% of the time.
- Slide 22
- Math (ALL) - Reliability Matrix for predicting Passing score on
CAHSEE Math 72.7% accurate Data from the LAUSD School Information
Branch Class of 2007 Model: 268 Math CST = 350 MATH CAHSEE
Predicted Results PassFail Actual Results Pass190703634
Fail62377249 This is a Confusion Matrix as described in the work of
Kohavi and Provost, 1998 Therefore the model for predicting a
passing score or failing score on the Mathematics portion of the
CAHSEE based on the 9 th grade Math CST is correct 72.7% of the
time.
- Slide 23
- Math (ALL) Reliability Matrix for predicting Passing CAHSEE
Math Proficient or Above score 81.5% accurate Data from the LAUSD
School Information Branch Class of 2008 Model: 326 Math CST = 380
MATH CAHSEE Predicted Results Prof/AboveBelow Prof Actual Results
Prof/Above56525127 Below Prof156423974 This is a Confusion Matrix
as described in the work of Kohavi and Provost, 1998 Therefore the
model for predicting a Proficient or Above score on the Mathematics
portion of the CAHSEE based on the 9 th grade Math CST (regardless
of which CST test was taken such as Algebra I, Geometry, General
Math etc.) is correct 81.5% of the time.
- Slide 24
- Summary of Predictors Mathematics Model Based on LAUSD Class of
2007 (36,190 scores) 9 th Grade CST score in Math of 268 or higher
predicts a passing score of 350 or higher on the CAHSEE 9 th Grade
CST score in Math of 326 or higher predicts a 380 or higher on the
CAHSEE (AYP) English Language Arts Model Based on LAUSD Class of
2008 (37,000+ scores) 9 th Grade English CST score of 292 or higher
predicts a passing score of 350 or higher on the CAHSEE 9 th Grade
CST score of 346 or higher predicts Proficient score of 380 or
higher on the CAHSEE (AYP)
- Slide 25
- For Program Improvement Schools: A Review of the 2006 AYP
Progress Report needs to be made in order determine which
subgroups, if any, fell short of meeting the Annual Measurable
Objectives (AMO) Recall that the AMOs are directly associated with
the percentages of 10 th grade students that score Proficient or
Above on the ELA and Math portions of the CAHSEE Deciding Which
Students To Target Possible Action Plans For Applying the ELA
Model
- Slide 26
- For Program Improvement Schools (cont.): Once a subgroup has
been identified, an SSIS extract can be performed to create a list
of students needing pre-intervention The extract should produce a
list of 10 th grade students that scored less than a 346 on their
English 9 th Grade CST. This list should be sorted in decreasing
order by their English 9 th Grade CST scaled score. Deciding Which
Students To Target Possible Action Plans For Applying the ELA
Model
- Slide 27
- For Program Improvement Schools (cont.): Once a subgroup has
been identified, an SSIS extract can be performed to create of list
of students needing pre-intervention The extract should produce a
list of 10 th grade students that scored less than a 326 on their
Math 10 th Grade CST. This list should be sorted in decreasing
order by their Math 9 th Grade CST scaled score. Deciding Which
Students To Target Possible Action Plans For Applying the Math
Model
- Slide 28
- For Program Improvement Schools (cont.): The resulting lists
are prioritized lists of students that will benefit from
pre-intervention and would most likely not score a Proficient or
Above on the CAHSEE without additional support. Deciding Which
Students To Target Possible Action Plans For Applying the ELA
Model
- Slide 29
- How to identify 10 th grade students that will probably fail
one or both parts of the CAHSEE? Perform an SSIS extract for 10 th
Grade students that scored less than a 268 on their 9 th Grade Math
CST Perform an SSIS extract for 10 th grade students that scored
less than a 292 on their 9 th Grade English CST Deciding Which
Students To Target Possible Action Plans For Applying the
Predictive Model
- Slide 30
- Cynthia Lim in the LAUSD School Information Branch has offered
to provide schools with technical support on identifying students
at- risk of not passing the CAHSEE or not getting a Proficient or
Above score. Cynthia.lim@lausd.net Deciding Which Students To
Target Technical Assistance
- Slide 31
- CAHSEE Preemptive Intervention Case Study Polytechnic High
School 2006 Master schedule permitted for approximately 170 seats
for CAHSEE preemptive intervention in Spring of 2006 Selected a
window of scores predicted to be 300-370 Based on student
performance this resulted in a target range as follows: For ELA:
CSTs of 212 - 328 For Math: CSTs of 164 - 308
- Slide 32
- On average, non prepped 10 th Graders matched the predicted
values. Math predicted mean score: 347.5 Math actual mean score:
348.5 ELA predicted mean score: 353.0 ELA actual mean score: 352.2
CAHSEE Preemptive Intervention Case Study Polytechnic High School
2006 - Results
- Slide 33
- ELAMath # In preemptive preparation 130166 # Predicted to
pass108118 # Actual did pass120143 Increase+12+25 %
Increase11.1%+21.2 # Predicted proficient4816 # Actual
Proficient6167 Increase+13+51 % Increase27.1%319% CAHSEE Preemptive
Intervention Case Study Polytechnic High School 2006 - Results
- Slide 34
- CAHSEE Preemptive intervention works! Preparation was a cost
effective means of positively impacting the study group. CAHSEE
Preemptive Intervention Case Study Polytechnic High School 2006 -
Results