Post on 23-Dec-2015
CONFLICT ANALYSIS
Systematic study of the profile, root causes, actors, and dynamics contributing to either violent conflict and/or peace
Conflict Analysis should capture the multi-dimensionality (political, social, economic, security, human rights etc.) of a conflict. It should be tailored to any geographic area or programmatic level.
Conflict analysis also serves an opportunity to engage different stakeholders to participate and develop a shared understanding of the context to inform a shared vision on development and peace building priorities.
Provides an opportunity to prioritize development interventions and plan more strategically
WHAT CONFLICT ANALYSIS IS NOT
Common sense and perception of dynamics An academic piece Not a desk report Not a chronology Not an compilation of reports Not a one-off exercise Context Analysis A separate exercise de-linked from planning
and programming
KEY ELEMENTS OF CONFLICT ANALYSIS
Profile/Situation AnalysisCausal Analysis Stakeholder Analysis Analysis of Conflict Dynamics Prioritization
KEY FEATURES OF CONFLICT ANALYSIS
There are many frameworks and methodologies on conflict analysis available. UNICEF uses the “UN conflict analysis methodology” adaptable to the diverse planning scenarios
Conflict analysis is part of several inter-agency planning frameworks- UNICEF needs to be an active player
Process is as important if not more than the outcome.
KEY FEATURES OF CONFLICT ANALYSIS
Quality conflict analysis requires appropriate investment by the Country Office (staff, resources, time, process)
Conflict analysis is only useful if translated into the programming cycle
Important for UNICEF is the identification of both root causes and conflict triggers because of dual mandate.
UNICEF AND CONFLICT ANALYSIS
Building on inter-agency and broader conflict analysis, zoom in on conflict dynamics particularly relevant for children and women, including:- Social dimensions of conflict- Children’s rights- Gender- Equitable access to services- Protection and security- Adolescents and youth - Restoring the citizen-state social compact
Conflict triggers
Underlying causes
VIOLENT CONFLICT
Root causes
Causal Analysis framework
Source: FAO
PROBLEM TREE EXAMPLE (ADAPTED FROM UNDP KENYA/ACORD/NSC*)
Violent conflict between x and
y
Causes
Problem
Effects
* Publication by UNDP Kenya, Acord, and the Kenyan National Steering Committee for Peace building: Community Peace Recovery and Reconciliation
Displacement
Children out of school
Destruction of houses public infrastructure
Food insecurity
Loss of livelihoods
Cattle killing
Closure market
Continued insecurity
Emotional and physical damage
Rape of girls fetching water
Violence, Killing of humans
Group x marginalized
Past forced relocation of x to area y
Ethnic mistrust
Limited access to education, health, water
Youth unemployment
Lack of dispute resolution mechanisms
Inequitable access to natural resources
Prevalence of small arms
Spill-over from conflict in X
Exercise – Problem Tree
Instructions
1. Based on the analysis you did on your country situation, identify one key problem that has a direct link to the main conflict dynamics in the country.
2. Identify causes of the key problem at 2 levels:
- conflict triggers- underlying/root causes
3. Identify existing and potential effects of the problem.