ByBy Taylor Dellinger, GISPTaylor Dellinger, GISP

Western Piedmont Council of GovernmentsWestern Piedmont Council of Governments

Prepared For:

““Hickory MetroHickory MetroEconomic Economic

Perspective”Perspective”

Foothills APICS ChapterFoothills APICS ChapterMay 9, 2013May 9, 2013

Hickory Metro Hickory Metro DemographicsDemographics

Hickory Metro Population 2000-2010

Source: 2000-2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

CountyCounty 2000 2000 CensusCensus

2010 2010 CensusCensus

Growth Growth 2000-102000-10

% Growth % Growth 2000-102000-10

AlexanderAlexander 33,60333,603 37,19837,198 3,5953,595 10.710.7

BurkeBurke 89,14889,148 90,91290,912 1,7671,767 2.02.0

CaldwellCaldwell 77,41577,415 83,02983,029 5,3215,321 6.86.8

CatawbaCatawba 141,685141,685 154,358154,358 12,67212,672 8.98.9

TotalTotal 341,851341,851 365,497365,497 23,64623,646 6.96.9

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

Winston-Salem

Wilmington

Rocky Mount

Raleigh

Jacksonville

Hickory

Greenville

Greensboro

Goldsboro

Fayetteville

Durham

Charlotte

Burlington

Asheville

Percentage Population Growth Per Decade

1990-2000 2000-2010

NC Metro Percentage Population Growth by Decade, 1990-2010NC Metro Percentage Population Growth by Decade, 1990-2010

Source: 1990-2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Source: 2000-2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Source: 2000 and 2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Hickory MSA % Age Group Population Change, 2000-2010

Source: 2000-2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Age Group2000

Census2010

CensusChange 2000-10

% Change 2000-10

Under 5 Years 22,057 21,592 -465 -2.15 to 9 Years 23,593 23,005 -588 -2.510 to 14 Years 23,225 24,277 1,052 4.515 to 19 Years 21,867 25,232 3,365 15.420 to 24 Years 20,547 19,957 -590 -2.925 to 34 Years 50,307 40,946 -9,361 -18.635 to 44 Years 54,178 51,674 -2,504 -4.645 to 54 Years 48,090 55,681 7,591 15.855 to 59 Years 18,934 24,638 5,704 30.160 to 64 Years 15,387 23,606 8,219 53.465 to 74 Years 24,456 31,566 7,110 29.175 to 84 Years 14,522 17,222 2,700 18.685 Years and Over 4,688 6,101 1,413 30.1Total 341,851 365,497 23,646 6.9

Hickory MSA Population by Age Group, 2000-2010

Source: 2000-2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

NC MSA 25 to 34 Age Group Percent Population Change, Census 2000 to Census 2010

Source: 2000 and 2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Source: 2000-2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

NC MSA 60 to 64 Age Group Percent Population Change, Census 2000 to Census

2010

Source: 2000 and 2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Source: 2000-2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Hickory MSA Population Change 2010-2012Hickory MSA Population Change 2010-2012

Hickory MSA Population Change 2010-2012

Hickory Metro Population Projections 2010-2030

CountyCounty 20102010 20152015 20202020 20302030Growth Growth 2010-2010-20302030

% Growth % Growth 2010-302010-30

AlexanderAlexander 37,19837,198 36,89936,899 36,35136,351 35,82535,825 -1,373-1,373 -3.7%-3.7%

BurkeBurke 90,91290,912 88,88988,889 87,63287,632 86,43186,431 -4,481-4,481 -4.9%-4.9%

CaldwellCaldwell 83,02983,029 81,88181,881 81,02181,021 80,16280,162 -2,867-2,867 -3.5%-3.5%

CatawbaCatawba 154,358154,358 157,872157,872 161,833161,833 169,751169,751 15,39315,393 10.0%10.0%

TotalTotal 365,497365,497 365,541365,541 366,837366,837 372,169372,169 6,6726,672 1.8%1.8%

Source: NC Office of Management and Budget.

Hickory Metro Hickory Metro Employment SituationEmployment Situation

Hickory MSA Employment, 3rd Qtr. 2000–Hickory MSA Employment, 3rd Qtr. 2000–20122012

Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Construction3%

Other1%

Manufacturing51%

Public Administration

4%

Trade

13%

Services28%

Hickory Metro Jobs 1990

Hickory MSA Hickory MSA Employment DistributionEmployment Distribution

Services49%

Trade15%

Public Administration

6%

Manufacturing27%

Construction2%

Other1%

Hickory Metro Jobs 2012

2012 US Manufacturing: 9%

Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Hickory Metro Hickory Metro EmploymentEmployment

2009-20122009-2012

Hickory MSA Unemployment Rate, Hickory MSA Unemployment Rate, March 2009– March 2013 March 2009– March 2013

Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Percentage NC MSA Employment Percentage NC MSA Employment Change, 3rd Quarter 2009 – 3rd Change, 3rd Quarter 2009 – 3rd

Quarter 2012Quarter 2012

Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Hickory MSA Job Losses by Sector,Hickory MSA Job Losses by Sector,3rd Quarter 2011-20123rd Quarter 2011-2012

Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Hickory MSA Employment Gains by Hickory MSA Employment Gains by Sector, 3rd Quarter 2011-2012Sector, 3rd Quarter 2011-2012

Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Change in Total Employment, Change in Total Employment, 3rd Qtr. 2011 to 3rd Qtr. 2011 to

3rd Qtr. 20123rd Qtr. 2012

Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Hickory Metro Hickory Metro Wage and Poverty TrendsWage and Poverty Trends

Hickory MSA Average Weekly Hickory MSA Average Weekly Wage, 3rd Quarter 2008-2012Wage, 3rd Quarter 2008-2012

Source: NC Division of Employment Security.

Poverty Rates and Median Household Income, 2009-2011 ACS

County

All Persons Below

Poverty Rate

All Persons Poverty Rate

(%)

Under 18 Below

Poverty Rate

Under 18 Poverty Rate

(%)

Median Household

IncomeAlexander 6,897 18.9% 2,433 29.2% $39,415Burke 16,539 18.8% 5,163 26.3% $37,130Caldwell 15,840 19.4% 5,047 27.6% $34,520Catawba 21,323 14.0% 7,683 21.2% $43,252Hickory (City) 7,817 20.2% 2,491 28.5% $36,082

Source: American Community Survey, US Census Bureau.

Hickory Metro Hickory Metro Commuting TrendsCommuting Trends

Number of Persons Who Reside in Hickory MSA,Number of Persons Who Reside in Hickory MSA, but Work Outside the Hickory MSAbut Work Outside the Hickory MSA

Hickory Metro Hickory Metro Housing TrendsHousing Trends

Source: 2000 and 2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Hickory MSA Housing Units, 1970-Hickory MSA Housing Units, 1970-20102010

Units1990 Units

% of Units

2000 Units

% of Units

Chg. 1990-2000

% Chg. 1990-2000

2010 Units

% of Unit

s

Chg. 2000-2010

% Chg. 2000-2010

Occupied Units

112,387 92.6133,96

692.5 21,579 19.2

144,504

88.9 10,538 7.9

Vacant Units

9,031 7.4 10,908 7.5 1,877 20.8 18,109 11.1 7,201 66.0

Total Units

121,418

100.0

144,874

100.0

23,456

19.3162,61

3100.

017,73

912.2

Hickory MSA Occupied and Vacant Housing Units, 1990-2010

Source: 2000 and 2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Hickory MSA Vacant Housing Unit by Type, 2010

Source: 2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Units1990 Units

% of Unit

s2000 Units

% of Units

Chg. 1990-2000

% Chg. 1990-2000

2010 Units

% of Units

Chg. 2000-2010

% Chg. 2000-2010

Owner-Occupied 83,952 74.7 99,497 74.3 15,545 18.5

103,966 71.9 4,469 4.5

Renter-Occupied 28,435 25.3 34,469 25.7 6,034 21.2 40,538 28.1 6,069 17.6

Occupied Units

112,387

100.0

133,966

100.0

21,579 19.2

144,504 100.0

10,538 7.9

Source: 2000 and 2010 Census, US Census Bureau.

Hickory MSA Renter and Owner Housing Units, 1990-2010

HickoryHickory MSA Single-Family (Site-Built) Permits, MSA Single-Family (Site-Built) Permits, 2000-20122000-2012

Hickory MSA Foreclosure Cases, 2000-2012Hickory MSA Foreclosure Cases, 2000-2012

Source: NC Administrative Office of the Courts.

Hickory Metro Hickory Metro Educational AttainmentEducational Attainment

NC MSA Educational Attainment Comparison, NC MSA Educational Attainment Comparison, 20112011

MSA

% High School

Degree or Higher

Ranking (1=Highest %)

% Bachelor's Degree or Higher

Ranking (1=Highest %)

Asheville 87.8 4 29.9 4

Burlington 80.0 13 19.7 10

Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord 87.6 5 33.3 3

Durham 87.3 6 41.9 1

Fayetteville 88.6 3 20.5 9

Goldsboro 80.1 12 14.4 10

Greensboro-High Point 84.2 9 27.0 7

Greenville 83.9 10 29.6 5

Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir 79.0 14 18.2 11

Jacksonville 90.3 1 17.5 12

Raleigh-Cary 88.7 2 41.3 2

Rocky Mount 81.7 11 16.3 13

Wilmington 87.2 7 28.7 6

Winston-Salem 85.5 8 26.9 8

Source: American Community Survey, US Census Bureau.

Hickory MSA Economic Outlook?Hickory MSA Economic Outlook?

A report IHS Global Insight for the US Conference of A report IHS Global Insight for the US Conference of Mayors indicates that:Mayors indicates that:

1)1)22,400 Jobs have been lost since 222,400 Jobs have been lost since 2ndnd Quarter 2006 Quarter 2006 (13.6%)(13.6%)2)2)Unemployment should remain over 11% through 2013Unemployment should remain over 11% through 20133)3)It will be beyond 2021 before the region returns to the It will be beyond 2021 before the region returns to the 2006 employment level2006 employment level4)4)The Hickory MSA is one of three MSAs in the Southeast The Hickory MSA is one of three MSAs in the Southeast (along with Rocky Mount and Dalton, GA) that will take (along with Rocky Mount and Dalton, GA) that will take more than 10 years to recover from job losses suffered in more than 10 years to recover from job losses suffered in the current recessionthe current recession5)5)The analysis does not say how long it will take to The analysis does not say how long it will take to recover from the 2000 Employment job peak of 186,000 recover from the 2000 Employment job peak of 186,000 workers.workers.

Question:Question:How does the Hickory MSA Economic How does the Hickory MSA Economic Outlook and 2010 Census data impact Outlook and 2010 Census data impact

development in the region over the next development in the region over the next decade?decade?