Post on 13-Mar-2020
The resource outlook to 2050By how much do land, water use and crop
yields need to increase by 2050?
by
Jelle Bruinsma
Consultant, ESA, FAO
• present the resource use implications to 2030 and 2050 of FAO’s latest (2006) long-term base line outlook
• evaluate the expected increases in land / water use and crop yields against potential increases
What this presentation does….
The resource outlook to 2050
… and what it does not do• take into account additional production
needed for eliminating under-nourishment or for bio-fuel production
• nor does it explicitly account for impacts of climate change
The resource outlook to 2050
• How much more needs to be produced?• Sources of growth• Land potential and land expansion• Irrigated land expansion and water use• Yield increases and yield gaps• Summary and conclusions
Outline presentation
• starting point: 2006 crop production projections• base year 2005/07 (latest FAOSTAT data)• fair amount of detail:
– 108 countries / country groups (93 developing and 53 developed = industrial and transition)
– 34 crops and 1 “other harvested land”– rain-fed and irrigated (data problems)
• no formal model – initial projection inspected and adjusted– taking in all info available (e.g. AEZ)– and relying on expert-judgement
Approach followedThe resource outlook to 2050
How much more needs to be produced by 2050?Absolute increments in percent
The resource outlook to 2050
past = 1961/63 to 2005/07; future = 2005/07 to 2050
255
97
63
23
148
70
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
past
future
past
future
past
futureD
evel
opin
gD
evel
oped
Wor
ldAgricultural production
The resource outlook to 2050
• crop production growth from 2.2% to 1.1% p.a.
This still means that:• an additional billion tonnes of cereals
needs to be produced annually by 2050• and 210 milion tonnes of meat• soybean production to increase by
140% to 515 mln tonnes
How much more needs to be produced by 2050?
Sources of growth in crop production (2005/07 to 2050)
9
14
77
21
8
71
30
18
52
25
6
69
58
87
212
86
-7
17
90
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
WorldDeveloping countries
Latin America
sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
East Asia
Near East / North Africa
Arable land expansion Increases in cropping intensity Yield increases
The resource outlook to 2050
The resource outlook to 2050
Arable land expansionLand with (rainfed) crop production potential (million ha)
Source: AEZ 2002
Totalland
suitable
Verysuitable
Suitable Moderatelysuitable
Land in use in
2005/07
Gross land
balanceattainable yield as % of MCFY 80-100 60-80 40-60
World 4188 1348 1509 794 1602 2586
Developing countries 2782 1109 1001 400 966 1816
Sub-Saharan Africa 1031 421 352 156 236 795
Latin America 1066 421 431 133 203 863
East Asia 366 146 119 53 235 131
Near East/North Africa 99 4 22 41 86 13
South Asia 220 116 77 17 206 14
Developed countries 1371 222 495 391 635 736
Arable land expansionLand with (rainfed) crop production potential (million ha)
Source: AEZ 2002
1602
635
966
236
203
235
206
86
2586
736
1816
795
863
131
14
13
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
World
Developed countries
Developing countries
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America
East Asia
South Asia
Near East/North Africa gross land balance
land in use 2005/07
The resource outlook to 2050
Arable land expansionThirteen developing countries accounting for two-thirds of the
(gross) land balance
The resource outlook to 2050 Braz
ilCo
ngo,
DR
Ango
laSu
dan
Arge
ntin
aCo
lom
bia
Boliv
iaVe
nezu
elaMoz
ambi
que
Indo
nesia
Peru
Tanz
ania
Zam
bia
2005 in use2050 in usepotential
598
188
81 94 10472 67 61 62 90
58 65 570
100
200
300
400
500
600million ha
The resource outlook to 2050
Suitable land left, but......qualifications:
Much of the gross land balance (2.6 bln ha) is• very unevenly distributed• under forests (800 mln ha), protected (200
mln ha), under settlements (60 mln ha)• suitable for only a few crops• suffering from one or more constraints
Arable land expansion
Arable land expansion
y = 4.4114x - 7274.3R2 = 0.9691
y = 5.3585x - 9822.9R2 = 0.9914
y = -0.9472x + 2548.6R2 = 0.5635
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
World
Arable land and land under permanent crops (million ha)
Developing countriesDeveloped countries
The resource outlook to 2050
Arable land expansionThe resource outlook to 2050
Arable land and land under permanent crops (million ha)
1673
1086
587
16481602
1040966
609636
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
World
Developing countries
Developed countries
Arable land expansionTotal arable land: data and projections
arable land in use (mln. ha) annual growth (% p.a.)1961/63 2005 adj. 2050 1961-2005 2005-2050
World 1375 1602 1673 0.30 0.10Developing countries 693 966 1086 0.67 0.27Developed countries 679 635 587 -0.14 -0.18
sub-Saharan Africa 133 236 300 0.80 0.55Latin America 105 203 255 1.01 0.52Near East/ North Africa 86 86 82 0.34 -0.11South Asia 191 206 212 0.15 0.07East Asia 178 235 237 0.99 0.02
The resource outlook to 2050
Arable land expansionThe resource outlook to 2050
IndiaChina
Brazil
Nigeria
Indonesia
Argentina
Mexico
Turkey
Pakist
an
Thailand
Congo, DR
Sudan
Ethiopia Iran
Tanza
nia
Myanmar
Niger
Philippines
20052050
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
18 developing countries with over 10 mln. ha of arable land in use
(accounting for 75% of total)
Arable land expansionThe resource outlook to 2050
arable land cropping intensity
harvested land
mln. ha percent mln. haWorld 2005/07 1602 87 1392
2050 1673 93 1556Developing countries 2005/07 966 95 919
2050 1086 99 1078
excl. China and India 2005/07 666 82 5472050 785 89 697
Developed countries 2005/07 635 74 4732050 587 81 478
Harvested land
Irrigated land expansion and water use
The resource outlook to 2050
Area equipped for irrigation (million ha)
y = 0.8367x - 1602.3R2 = 0.9407
y = 2.6918x - 5178.2R2 = 0.9942
y = 3.5285x - 6780.5R2 = 0.991
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
World
Developing countries
Developed countries
Irrigated land expansion and water useThe resource outlook to 2050
Area equipped for irrigation
1961/63 2005/07 2050 1961-05 2005-50million ha % p.a.
World 141 287 318 1.71 0.24Developed countries 38 68 68 1.57 0.00Developing countries 103 219 251 1.76 0.31
excl. China and India 47 97 117 1.91 0.42sub-Saharan Africa 3 6 8 2.07 0.67Latin America 8 18 24 2.05 0.72Near East/North Africa 15 29 36 1.86 0.47South Asia 37 81 86 1.98 0.14East Asia 40 85 97 1.42 0.30
Irrigated land expansion and water use
The resource outlook to 2050
Area equipped for irrigation and area in use (million ha)
222
273
189212
240
263
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World
area equipped
area in use
developing countries
developed countries
Irrigated land expansion and water useThe resource outlook to 2050
Water withdrawal for irrigation (cubic km)
Water use efficiency ratio (%)
Irrigation water withdrawal (km3)
Pressure on water resources (%)
2005/07 2050 2005/07 2050 2005/07 2050
World 44 46 2620 2906 6 7
Developed countries 42 43 505 493 4 4
Developing countries 44 47 2115 2413 8 9
sub-Saharan Africa 22 25 55 87 2 2
Latin America 35 35 181 253 1 2
Near East/North Africa 51 61 347 374 58 62
South Asia 54 57 819 906 36 39
East Asia 33 35 714 793 8 9
Yield increases and yield gapsThe resource outlook to 2050
world 2005/07 2050 1961/63 2005/07 2050 1961- 2007
2005/07 - 2050
land (mln. ha) yield (t/ha) yield (% p.a.)
All crops ($/ha) 1392 1556 1.7 0.8
All cereals 705 753 1.40 3.22 4.34 1.9 0.7
Wheat 224 242 1.14 2.72 3.75 2.1 0.7
Rice (paddy) 158 150 1.93 4.05 5.23 1.8 0.6
Maize 155 190 1.99 4.73 6.06 2.0 0.6
Soybeans 95 141 1.14 2.29 3.66 1.5 1.1
Groundnuts 24 39 0.86 1.49 1.91 1.6 0.6
Yield increases and yield gapsThe resource outlook to 2050
Cereal yields: bottom and top 10% of developing countries with over 50 thousand ha under crop
400
2150
830
5650
1500
9020
670
4660
1060
7520
2480
9840
520
2160
530
7770
1540
9820
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1961
/6319
61/63
2005
/0720
05/07 2050
2050
1961
/6319
61/63
2005
/0720
05/07 2050
2050
1961
/6319
61/63
2005
/0720
05/07 2050
2050
wheat rice maize
Yield increases and yield gapsThe resource outlook to 2050 2005
/0720
50AEZ (V
S+S+M
S)
AEZ (VS)
AEZ (S)
AEZ (MS)
land (million ha)yield (kg/ha)
23673173
4712
7408
4975
3217
154 169
1869
395 647 8270
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Rainfed wheat in the world
Yield increases and yield gapsThe resource outlook to 2050
Wheat yields: 16 countries with over 4 million tonnes of mainly rainfed wheat production
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
UK GermanyDenmarkFranceHungaryPolandItalyUSARomaniaArgentinaUkraineCanadaTurkeyRussiaAustraliaKazakhstan
Actual yield (kg/ha), average 2003/07
Difference from agro-ecological attainable (AEZ VS+S+MS, rainfed, high input)
Yield increases and yield gapsThe resource outlook to 2050
Wheat yields: 16 countries with over 4 million tonnes of mainly rainfed wheat production
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
UKGerm
any
Denmark
France
HungaryPolan
d
Italy
USARoman
iaArg
entin
aUkra
ineCan
ada
Turkey
Russia
Australi
aKaz
akhsta
n
Actual yield (kg/ha), average 2003/07
Difference from agro-ecological attainable (AEZ VS only, rainfed, high input)
The resource outlook to 2050
• Increment agr. production 2006 to 2050: World +70%; Developing + 97%; Developed +23%.
• Continuing slowdown growth crop production (World 2.2 to 1.1%; Developing 3.0 to 1.2%)
• Most to come from more intensive agr.: World 90%; Developing 80%; Developed > 100%.
• Arable land to expand by 70 mln. ha (<5%). Developing + 120 mln. (12%), Developed – 50 mln. (- 8%).
• Harvested land + 160 mln. (17%)
Summary and conclusions -1
The resource outlook to 2050
• Land equipped for irrigation + 32 mln. ha (11%) all of it in Developing.
• Irrigated harvested land + 17%.• Water withdrawal for irrigation + 11%.• Crop yield growth on average to halve (World
1.7 to 0.8%; Developing 2.1 to 0.9%)• GAEZ: suitable land left, but .....qualifications• Water: fairly similar as for land ...........• Bridgeable yield gaps ............
Summary and conclusions - 2
The resource outlook to 2050
• Presented only highly aggregated picture…of course enormous variation among countries and commodities
• On the one hand, some developing countries set on path similar as for developed countries
• On the other hand, some developing countries facing severe land / water constraints
• Public intervention needed…e.g. in investment in agr. research
• All this for food and feed. Bio-fuels and Climate Change might change this.
Summary and conclusions - 3
Thank you !
The resource outlook to 2050
How much more needs to be produced by 2050?
135
48
34
103
38
2
0 50 100 150
past
future
past
future
past
future
Dev
elop
ing
D
evelop
ed
Wor
ld
Population
future = 2005/07 to 2050past = 1961/63 to 2005/07
Absolute increments in percent
255
97
63
23
148
70
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
past
future
past
future
past
future
Dev
elop
ing
Dev
elop
edW
orld
future = 2005/07 to 2050past = 1961/63 to 2005/07
Agricultural production
The resource outlook to 2050
How much more needs to be produced by 2050?Absolute increments in percent
The resource outlook to 2050 103
38
148
70
135
48
255
97
34
2
63
23
0 50 100 150 200 250
past
future
past
future
past
future
past
future
past
future
past
future
popu
latio
npr
oduc
tion
popu
latio
npr
oduc
tion
popu
latio
npr
oduc
tion
Wor
ldD
evel
opin
gD
evel
oped
past = 1961/63 to 2005/07future = 2005/07 to 2050
The resource outlook to 2050
How much more needs to be produced by 2050?
Annual crop production growth (percent p.a.)
1961-07 2005/07-30 2030-50World 2.2 1.3 0.8Developing countries 3.0 1.5 0.9Developed countries 0.9 0.9 0.4
sub-Saharan Africa 2.5 2.5 1.7Near East / North Africa 2.6 1.7 1.0Latin America and Caribbean 2.6 2.1 1.3South Asia 2.6 1.6 0.9East Asia 3.5 1.0 0.5
Area equipped for irrigation in North America, Europe and Australia (million ha)The resource outlook to 2050
y = 0.1521x - 240.86R2 = 0.8663
y = 1.093x - 2111.5R2 = 0.977
0
20
40
60
80
100
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Irrigated land expansion and water use
The resource outlook to 2050
Water withdrawal for irrigation (world; cubic km)
525
891
1124
1541
1850
2191
24122503
2595
2620 29062831
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050
Yield increases and yield gapsThe resource outlook to 2050
t/ha % p.a.
1961/63 2005/07 2050 1961 -07 2005/07 -2050
Wheat total 1.14 2.72 3.75 2.1 0.7rainfed 2.37 3.17 0.7irrigated 3.50 5.08 0.8
Rice total 1.93 4.05 5.23 1.8 0.6(paddy) rainfed 2.54 3.26 0.6
irrigated 5.10 6.40 0.5Maize total 1.99 4.72 6.06 2.0 0.6
rainfed 4.26 5.58 0.6irrigated 6.74 7.43 0.2
All total 1.40 3.23 4.34 1.9 0.7cereals rainfed 2.64 3.58 0.7
irrigated 4.67 6.10 0.6
Cereal yields, rainfed and irrigated