Building Intui+on for

Low Frequency High Consequence

Events

ClintonA.Culp,Ph.D.MontanaStateUniversityBillings

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Whatwewillcover•  Frequency/ConsequenceCon?nuum• Howwemakedecisions• Howtobuildourintui?ons

Whatwewilldo

• Buildandconductapre-mortem• Conductapost-mortem(aHerincidentreview)• Designandconductarealis?cdecision-makingexercise(DMX)

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Situa1on:Youarepreparingtoleadagroupof4peopleonanovernightbackcountryski/snowboardtripintotheTetons,WYwiththegoalofskiing/snowboarding“ShoottheMoon”andotherrunsinthearea.Yourpar?cipantsreporttheyhaveaboveaverageskiing/snowboardingability.Yousentthegearlistoutbuthavenotheardbackfromthem.Youwillmeetthemforthefirst?meintwodaysatthetrailhead.Thetrailheadisatabout6,500feet,youplanoncampingataround9,500feetandthehighpassisat10,200feet,10+milesroundtripnotincludingtheotherruns.Theweatherthelastfewdayshasbeensunnyandstablewithbelowfreezingtemperaturesduringthedayandbelow0Ofatnight.Theforecastforthenext4dayscallsforthesamebutthereisafrontmovinginfromthewestanditisexpectedtoputupto10inchesofnewsnowonthemountains.Avalancheforecasthasbeenfavorable,moderateonallaspectsandeleva?ons.

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Insmallgroups(4or5)comeupwithascenarioandconductaPre-Mortemandanswerthefollowingques?ons.Questions 1.  What can fail/go wrong? (Prioritize based on consequence and frequency.) 2.  What caused the failure (there may be more than one cause for each

failure)? Cycle through questions 3-5 for each failure point. 3.  What would an expert do that a novice would not do (ask if needed)? 4.  How do we get reliable and timely feedback? What cues need to be

attended to? 5.  What is the real (core) skill that needs to be developed/learned? How do

we acquire that skill.

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Pre-Mortems Describe&Prep(i.e.,whatisthesitua?on…theplanhasfailed).1.  Describewhatcanfail/gowrong.•  Priori?zebasedonconsequence&frequency.

2.  Whatcausedeachfailure(possiblemorethanonecause)?•  LackoforPoor:

•  Technical,Communica?on,Intra/InterPersonalSkills,etc.

•  Uncertainty•  Missing/TooMuchInforma?on•  Distrust/InconsistentInforma?on•  Irrelevant/TooComplex

Cyclethrough3-5foreachfailurepoint.3.  Whatwouldanexpertdothata

novicewouldnotdo(ask)?4.  Howdowegetreliableand

?melyfeedback?•  Whatcuesneedtobeadendedto.

5.  Whatisthereal(core)skillthatneedstobedeveloped/learned?•  Howdoweacquirethatskill?

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Building Intui+on Designing and Implemen+ng a Deliberate Training Program

• ConductPre-Mortems(beforeincidentreviews)• ConductPost-Mortems(aHerincidentreviews)• Don’tforgetthegood!

• Designandconductrealis?cDecision-MakingExercises(DMX)•  Createstress–with?melimitsand/orpop-inon-the-flyDMXs

•  JournalyourdecisionsinthefieldtocomparetoPre-Mortems• Prac?ceDecision-MakinginContext(oratclosetoitaspossible)

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Frequency/Consequence Con+nuum

HighFrequency

HighConsequence

LowFrequency

HighConsequence

HighFrequency

LowConsequence

LowFrequencyLow

Consequence

Frequency

Conseq

uence

Thevastmajorityofdecisionshavediscre?onary?me-to-task.Wehave?metothink!

Theyarenot?mecompe??vewithregardtolife,limb,oreyesight.

Asmallminorityarenon-discre?onary?me-to-task.Wedonothave?metothink!

Theyare?mecompe??vewithregardtolife,limb,oreyesight.

FrequencyandConsequencearerela?vetoyourrisktolerance.

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How we make decisions • System1(default)2(LimbicSystem)•  Fastandautomated•  Thereislidleornoeffortorsenseofcontrol• Cogni?velyfrugal• Decisionscometomindwithoutawarenessofthecuesthatevokeanobviousevalua?onoftheirstrength

• PadernRecogni?on• Recogni?onPrimedDecision-Making2

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How we make decisions •  System2(overload/fallback)1(PrefrontalCortex/CentralExecu?ve)

•  Slowerandmorecontrolled•  Moreeffornulandthereisawithasenseofcontrol•  Cogni?velyexpensive•  Decisionscometomindwithanawarenessofcuesthatevokeanobviousevalua?onoftheirstrength

•  Systems&Checklists3

• DomainSpecificExper?se4•  Expertdecision-maker'sSystem1closertoSystem2

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Dual-Process Model

of Judgment

and Decision-Making5

Stressors(hungry, sleep, etc)

Stressors(hungry, sleep, etc)

Decision Maker’sExpertise(DME)

Decision Maker’sExpertise(DME) Attention

(Situational Awareness)

Attention(Situational Awareness)

Decision PointRecognition

Decision PointRecognition

Act on Course of Action (COA)

Act on Course of Action (COA)

NoSystem 1

YesSystem 2

ReceiveFeedback

(High v Low Validity)(Internal &/or External)

ReceiveFeedback

(High v Low Validity)(Internal &/or External)

Lack of Situational Awareness (SA)

&Events Act on

Decision Maker

Lack of Situational Awareness (SA)

&Events Act on

Decision Maker

No

Decision Complexity(simple/complex)

Heuristics & BiasesDecision Consequences

(low to high)

Decision Complexity(simple/complex)

Heuristics & BiasesDecision Consequences

(low to high)

Identify PossibleCOA

Identify PossibleCOA

Act onCOA

Act onCOA

ReceiveFeedback

(High or Low Validity) (Internal &/or External)

ReceiveFeedback

(High or Low Validity) (Internal &/or External)

RecognizeHeuristics

AndBiases

RecognizeHeuristics

AndBiases

Did COAWork

Did COAWork

Exit & Move to next DP

Process Task

Exit & Move to next DP

Process TaskYES

Did COAWork

Did COAWork

Exit & Move to next DP

Process Task

Exit & Move to next DP

Process TaskYES

No

COAOutcomePrediction

(mental simulation)

COAOutcomePrediction

(mental simulation)

No

Has the Situation Changed?

Has the Situation Changed?

No

Yes

EnvironmentalFactors

(weather, visibility,etc.)

EnvironmentalFactors

(weather, visibility,etc.)

Yes/No

Yes/No

Probably Does Not Work

ChooseCOA

ChooseCOA

Probably Works

Yes

No –!Overload / Incongruent Cues

State Traits of DMEGeneral Self-Efficacy

Impulse Sensation SeekingAttentional ControlEmotion Regulation

(Reappraisal/Suppression)Tolerance of Ambiguity

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Post-Mortem Don’tforgettopost-morgentheGOOD!•  Asbestyoucan,reconstructthe?melineofeventsanddecisionpoints.Some?mesdiagrams/photoshelp.

Cyclethroughthefollowingques?onsforeachdecision:1.  Whywasthisdifficult?2.  Howwasthesitua?oninterpreted.3.  Inhindsight,whatwerethered-flags,cuesandpadernsthatyoushould

haveseen(proximalanddistal)?4.  Whywasthecourseofac?ontaken?5.  Whatcouldhavebeendonedifferently?6.  Whattraining/educa?onneedstooccurtobecomebeder?

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Post-Mortem:Ms.KuoandherdaughterwerepassengersinaraHthatwaspartofagroupthatincludedotherraHsandboats.AmongtheotherpassengersinMs.Kuo’sraHwasaguidewhowasanemployeeoftheraHcompany.Duringthetrip,apar?cipantfelloutofakayakandMs.Kuo’sraHwasdirectedtotheriverbankbytheguide,whogotoutwithathrowrope.Theguidetossedoneendoftherope,thepar?cipantswamtowardtheraHandgrabbedit,whichcausedanotherpassengerintheraHtofallintothewater.Atthispointtheguidethrewtheen?reropeintoMs.Kuo’sraH.Oneendoftheropebecamecaughtunderthewater,andtheotherendwrappedaroundMs.Kuo’slowerrightlegandbegancrushingit.Ms.Kuoshoutedtotheguidetocuttheropewithaknifetofreeherleg,buttheguiderepliedthathedidnothaveaknife.Heshoutedtotheseniorguideandtheotherguidestobringhimaknife,butnoonehadone.AtthispointtheguideinMs.Kuo’sraHfrozeanddidnothing.Ms.Kuoaskedhimtojumpintotherivertotryandfreetherope.HewasabletocreateenoughslackontheropethatitcouldberemovedfromMs.Kuo’sleg.EventuallytheguideswereabletomoveMs.Kuotoshorewhereshewasinexcrucia?ngpainandsufferingfromrespiratoryandcirculatoryproblems.Theguidesdidnothavecommunica?onequipmentwiththemsotheycouldnotcontactoutsidesourcesforhelp.Oneoftheguidesrantoaroadtolocateatelephoneandcallforhelp.AHerthreehours,Ms.Kuowastransportedtoahospital.Onceathome,Ms.Kuowasseenbyavascularsurgeonandotherphysicians,whodiagnosedastrangula?oninjurytoherlowerrightleg.Inaddi?on,herphysiciansreferredherforpsychologicaltreatment.(Adarian,A.,2012,p.52)

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Incident:

Ms.KuoandherdaughterwerepassengersinaraHthatwaspartofagroupthatincludedotherraHsandboats.AmongtheotherpassengersinMs.Kuo’sraHwasaguidewhowasanemployeeoftheraHcompany.Duringthetrip,apar?cipantfelloutofakayakandMs.Kuo’sraHwasdirectedtotheriverbankbytheguide,whogotoutwithathrowrope.Theguidetossedoneendoftherope,thepar?cipantswamtowardtheraHandgrabbedit,whichcausedanotherpassengerintheraHtofallintothewater.Atthispointtheguidethrewtheen?reropeintoMs.Kuo’sraH.

Oneendoftheropebecamecaughtunderthewater,andtheotherendwrappedaroundMs.Kuo’slowerrightlegandbegancrushingit.Ms.Kuoshoutedtotheguidetocuttheropewithaknifetofreeherleg,buttheguiderepliedthathedidnothaveaknife.Heshoutedtotheseniorguideandtheotherguidestobringhimaknife,butnoonehadone.

AtthispointtheguideinMs.Kuo’sraHfrozeanddidnothing.Ms.Kuoaskedhimtojumpintotherivertotryandfreetherope.HewasabletocreateenoughslackontheropethatitcouldberemovedfromMs.Kuo’sleg.

EventuallytheguideswereabletomoveMs.Kuotoshorewhereshewasinexcrucia?ngpainandsufferingfromrespiratoryandcirculatoryproblems.Theguidesdidnothavecommunica?onequipmentwiththemsotheycouldnotcontactoutsidesourcesforhelp.Oneoftheguidesrantoaroadtolocateatelephoneandcallforhelp.AHerthreehours,Ms.Kuowastransportedtoahospital.

Onceathome,Ms.Kuowasseenbyavascularsurgeonandotherphysicians,whodiagnosedastrangula?oninjurytoherlowerrightleg.Inaddi?on,herphysiciansreferredherforpsychologicaltreatment.(Adarian,A.,2012,p.52)

Questions Asbestyoucan,reconstructthe?melineofeventsanddecisionpoints.Whywasthisdifficult?Howwasthissitua?oninterpreted?Inhindsight,whatwerethered-flags,cuesandpadernsthatyoushouldhaveseen(proximalanddistal)?Whywasthecourseofac?ontaken?Whatcouldhavebeendonedifferently?Whattraining/educa?onneedstooccurtobecomebeder?

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Psychological State Traits that Effect Decision-Making11

• GeneralizedSelf-Efficacy6(higherinexperts)

• AGen1onalControl&Vigilance7(higherinexperts)

•  Emo1onalRegula1on8(higherinexperts)•  Reappraisal–higherinexperts•  Suppression–lowerinexperts

•  ToleranceforAmbiguity9(higherwithexperts)

•  Impulsivity10(lowerinexperts,expertsaveragetogeneralpopula?on)

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Decision-Making Exercise (DMX) Rules•  Thereisnoabsoluterightanswer…itisabouttheprocess.•  Simplescenario,thustherewillincompleteinforma?onthatwillrequireyoutomakeassump?ons.•  Solvetheproblemdonotcri?quetheproblem.

•  Imposed?melimit•  5-10minfordecision&~30mintotal

•  Youmustcommunicateyourdecisionorallytothegroup.•  Bespecificastowho,what,how(maybe),when,where,why(maybe);nogeneraliza?onsorhypothe?cals.

•  Play•  Solitaire,GrouporTwo-Sided

Explainyourdecision-makingprocess• Whyyoumadethedecisionyoumade?• Whatwereyourop?ons?• Whatwerethefactors/considera?onsforemostonyourmind?• Whatassump?ons,ifany,didyoumakeaboutthesitua?on?• Whatwouldyouhavelikedtohaveknown…ornotknown?•  Onwhatprinciples,concepts,valueswasyourplanbased?

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Background:Youareleadingagroupoffivebackpackers(BillandJoan,BeccaandMad,andJim)intheBeartoothMountainsonthree-daytripupBlackCanyonofftheLakeForkTrail.YourgoalistocampthefirstnightattheheadwaterofBlackCanyonLakethencutcrosscountrymakingthepasstotheeastofMountRearguardandspendthenextnightatMoonLakethenhikeHellroaringPlateautothehightrailheadwhereyouhaveafriendscheduledtopickyouuptheaHernoonofthethirdday.BillandJoan,amarriedcouple,arefitbuthavenotbackpackedinseveralyears.TheyeachhavecurrentFirstAid/CPRtraining.BeccaandMadareengaged,fitandhavebackpackedquiteabitinthesoutherndesertofUtahbutneverinthemountainsofMontana.BeccatookawildernessfirstaidclassfouryearsagoandMadhashadnomedicaltraining.MadalsohasTypeIIDiabetes.Jimisveryfitbutthisishisfirstbackpackingtripandheseemedverynervouswhenthegroupencounteredasnakeonthetrailyesterday.Youhavethefirstaidkitandallhavebearsprayandpriortodepar?ngyoucheckedforunderstandingonwhattodoiftheyencounterabear.Youcurrentlyhavenocellcoverageandarenotcarryingasat-phone.Itismid-morningtheseconddayandyouareheadinguptothepassfromBlackCanyonLake.Beccaspotsagrizzlybearabout100yardsupslopefromthegrouptothesoutheast.Asyoustarttosimultaneouslytellthegroupwhattodoandlookforanycubs.Withoutanyexplana?onJimstartsmovingfast(running)backtowardthelakeandthenyouspotit…acub.Jimdoesnotrealizethatheisrunningrighttowardit.Thentheworsthappens,thesowtakesoffaHerJim.Whatdoyoudonow?

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Thereisnosinglecorrectanswer;however,theremaybeawrongorlessthandesirableanswer.

Title:BearAdack

Background:Youareleadingagroupoffivebackpackers(BillandJoan,BeccaandMad,andJim)intheBeartoothMountainsonthree-daytripupBlackCanyonofftheLakeForkTrail.YourgoalistocampthefirstnightattheheadwaterofBlackCanyonLakethencutcrosscountrymakingthepasstotheeastofMountRearguardandspendthenextnightatMoonLakethenhikeHellroaringPlateautothehightrailheadwhereyouhaveafriendscheduledtopickyouuptheaHernoonofthethirdday.

BillandJoan,amarriedcouple,arefitbuthavenotbackpackedinseveralyears.TheyeachhavecurrentFirstAid/CPRtraining.BeccaandMadareengaged,fitandhavebackpackedquiteabitinthesoutherndesertofUtahbutneverinthemountainsofMontana.BeccatookawildernessfirstaidclassfouryearsagoandMadhashadnomedicaltraining.MadalsohasTypeIIDiabetes.Jimisveryfitbutthisishisfirstbackpackingtripandheseemedverynervouswhenthegroupencounteredasnakeonthetrailyesterday.Youhavethefirstaidkitandallhavebearsprayandpriortodepar?ngyoucheckedforunderstandingonwhattodoiftheyencounterabear.Youcurrentlyhavenocellcoverageandarenotcarryingasat-phone.

Itismid-morningtheseconddayandyouareheadinguptothepassfromBlackCanyonLake.Beccaspotsagrizzlybearabout100yardsupslopefromthegrouptothesoutheast.Asyoustarttosimultaneouslytellthegroupwhattodoandlookforanycubs.Withoutanyexplana?onJimstartsmovingfast(running)backtowardthelakeandthenyouspotit…acub.Jimdoesnotrealizethatheisrunningrighttowardit.Thentheworsthappens,thesowtakesoffaHerJim.Whatdoyoudonow?

Requirement:Within5minutes:Writedownwhatyoutellyourgroupmemberstodo?Bespecificastowho,what,how(maybe),when,where,why(maybe);nogeneraliza?onsorhypothe?cals.

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Decision-Making Exercise (DMX) Explainyourdecision-makingprocess• Whyyoumadethedecisionyoumade?• Whatwereyourop?ons?• Whatwerethefactors/considera?onsforemostonyourmind?• Whatassump?ons,ifany,didyoumakeaboutthesitua?on?• Whatwouldyouhavelikedtohaveknown…ornotknown?•  Onwhatprinciples,concepts,valueswasyourplanbased?

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Meaningful Experience leads to beQer intui+on

TheParadoxofExperience1• Howdowegetmeaningfulrealworldexperiences?•  Some?mesweonlygetoneshotattheexperience.

Iden?fyandunderstand

requirementsofyourjob.

DeliberatePrac?cethedifficultdecisions

incontext.

DeliberateReviewofDecision-MakingExperiences

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Ac+on Steps 1.  Bedeliberateaboutyourprocess,wecangainexperience,toagreaterorlessor

degree,vicariously.2.  IncorporatePre-Mortems,Post-Mortems,andDMXsintoyourregularstaff

training.3.  Ifyouhavetheability…slowdown…beinten?onalinyourdecision!•  Youwillbeabletoiden?fylowfrequency,highconsequence,non-discre?onary?me-to-taskeventsandconductapre-mortemthatwillhelpyourstaffreducerisk.

•  Youwillbeabletodesignandconductarealis?cdecision-makingexercisesthatwillhelpyouandyourstaffgainsimulatedexperiencesoflowfrequencyhighconsequenceevents.

•  Youandyourstaffwillbeabletoconductacri?calaHerreviewofanincident,ornearmiss,designedtogivedetailedfeedbackandimprovethedecision-makingprocessandqualityoflowfrequency,highconsequence,non-discre?onary?me-to-taskevents.

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Intolerance of ambiguity as a personality variable. Journal of Personality, 30(1), 29. doi:10.1111/1467-6494.ep8933446 4. Klein, G., Calderwood, R., & Clinton-Cirocco, A. (1986). Rapid decision making on the fireground. Paper presented at the Human

Factors and Ergonomics Society 30th Annual Meeting, Norwood, NJ. 5. Culp, C. A. (2016). Judgment and decision-making in outdoor adventure leadership: A dual-process model. Journal of Outdoor

Recreation, Education and Leadership, 8(1). doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.18666/JOREL-2016-V8-I1-7380 6. Schwarzer, R., & Jerusalem, M. (1995). Generalized self-efficacy scale. Measures in health psychology: A user's portfolio. Causal

and control beliefs, 35-37. 7. Derryberry, D., & Reed, M. A. (2002). Anxiety-related attentional biases and their regulation by attentional control. Journal of

Abnormal Psychology, 111(2), 225. 8. Gross, J. J., & John, O. P. (2003). Individual Differences in Two Emotion Regulation Processes: Implications for Affect,

Relationships, and Well-Being. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 85(2), 348-362. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.85.2.348 9. Budner, S. (1962). Intolerance of ambiguity as a personality variable. Journal of Personality, 30(1), 29. doi:

10.1111/1467-6494.ep8933446Zuckerman, M. (2007). Sensation seeking and risky behavior. Washington, D.C., USA: American Psychological Association.

10. Zuckerman, M. (2007). Sensation seeking and risky behavior. Washington, D.C., USA: American Psychological Association.

11. Culp (working)

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Building Intui+on

ClintonA.Culp,Ph.D.Major,USMC(Ret)MontanaStateUniversityBillingsclinton.culp@msubillings.edu

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