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BRIEFEconomic and Policy Analysis UnitUNDP MozambiqueNo: 02/2011

Author: Thomas Kring

The Global Human Development Report (HDR) 2011: Sustainability and Equity.

In June 2012 world leaders will gather in Rio de Janeiro at the UN Conference on Sustainable Development to seek a new

consensus on global actions to safeguard the future of the planet and the right of current and future generations everywhere

to live healthy and fulfilling lives. The 2011 HDRoffers important new contributions to the global dialogue on this challengeand demonstrates how sustainability is inextricably linked to basic questions of equity such as fairness and social justice, and

greater access to a better quality of life. In particular, the 2011 HDR constitutes an important input to the dialogue in relation

Mozambiques participation in the UN framework conference on Climate Change in Durban (COP17) from 29 November to 9th

December 2011 and the discussion surrounding policy options to address the issue of environmental stability and equity.

Sustainability a matter of basic social justice

The 2011 HDR highlights the importance of sustainability and equity and these factors influence on future achievement in

human development. Though significant progress in HDI values has been achieved across the world and in particular among

the countries in the lowest 25% of the HDI ranking, this progress is increasingly under threat. The HDR 2011 raises concerns

that the development progress in the worlds poorest countries could be halted or even reversed by mid-century unless

decisive steps are taken to slow climate change, prevent further environmental damage and reduce deep inequalities within

and among nations. Sustainability and equity are wide reaching and often complex issues. The 2011 HDR examines factors

which are not always associated with environmental sustainability, including reproductive health care to help fight gender

inequality and poverty. Sustainability is not exclusively or even primarily an environmental issue. Rather sustainability must

be approached as a matter of basic social justice for current and future generations alike. Understanding the links between

environmental sustainability and equity is critical in order to expand human freedoms for current and future generations. It is

clear that the remarkable progress in human development over recent decades cannot continue without bold global steps to

reduce both environmental risks and inequality. In that regard, environmental sustainability can be most fairly and effectivelyachieved by addressing health, education, income and gender disparities together with the need for global action on energy

production and eco system protection.

Three scenarios where are we in 2050?

The 2011 HDR includes outcomes of simulations conducted of different scenarios. The environmental challenge scenario

which captures the adverse effects of global warming on agricultural production, on access to clean water and improved

sanitation and on pollution suggests that by 2050 the global HDI would be 8% lower than in the baseline. The effect would be

even stronger in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa where the reduction would be 12%. Under the more adverse

environmental disaster scenario, which envisions vast deforestation and land degradation, dramatic declines in biodiversity

and accelerated extreme weather events, the global HDI would be some 15% below the projected baseline. If nothing is done

to halt or reverse current trends, the environmental disaster scenario leads to a turning point before 2050 in developing

countries where their convergence with rich countries in HDI achievements will begin to reverse. A particularly pertinentproblem is that the results of the simulations suggest that in many cases the most disadvantaged people bear and will

continue to bear the repercussions of environmental deterioration, even if they contribute little to the problem.

Double burden of deprivation on the poorest

Though low HDI countries have contributed the least to global climate change, they have experienced the greatest loss in

rainfall and the greatest increase in its variability. This has significant implications for agricultural production. As most people

in the Sub-Saharan countries, Mozambicans rely largely on agriculture for their livelihood, which increases the vulnerability of

already disadvantaged groups. In fact the most disadvantaged people often carry a double burden of deprivation. More

vulnerable to the wider effects of environmental degradation, they must also cope with threats to their immediate

environment posed by indoor air pollution, dirty water and unimproved sanitation. Furthermore, to the extent that women in

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poor countries are disproportionately involved in subsistence farming and water collection, they face greater adverse

consequences of environmental degradation. The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), introduced in the 2010 HDR andestimated this year for 109 countries, provides a closer look at these deprivations to see where they are most acute.

Mozambique is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change

For Mozambique the 2011 HDR is of particular relevance. The country is classified as one of the world s most vulnerable

countries with regards to natural disasters and the effects of climate change. Mozambiques vulnerability is highlighted by its

rating at 7 (extreme) on the UNDP/UNEP Disaster Risk index, emphasising the need to focus on prevention and disaster

preparedness. However, the country still has only limited capacity to mitigate and react to these threats. The majority of thepopulation is highly dependent on fishing and agricultural production, and the climate-change induced erratic rain patterns

and more frequent storms are increasing the vulnerability of large groups of Mozambicans. Some implications of

environmental deterioration could be rising food prices which could have significant implications for a net food importing

country like Mozambique. Further, linked to climate change, is rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and an urgent need

for adaption efforts in order to ensure that vulnerable groups are able to tackle changes in their livelihood strategies are

among the key issues facing the country.

Regardless of the challenges which the country is facing Mozambique can also register some significant achievements. With

its reliance on hydro power Mozambique is doing well with regards to using renewable energy sources as primary energy

supply at 95.9% compared to a world average of only 25.1%. Mozambique is also below the world average with regards to

greenhouse gas emissions with 1.1 tonnes per capita compared to a world average of 1.7 tonnes. However, as Mozambique

continues to experience high levels of economic growth the emissions may increase unless green policies are introduced.

Deforestation is a significant issue, where Mozambique has experienced an estimated 9.1% reduction in forest cover between

1990 and 2008, compared to a world average of 1.2%. That being said, Mozambique is doing relatively better than Sub-

Saharan Africa in general which has experienced a 13.8% reduction in the same period.

In general people in the poorest countries are disproportionately at risk from climate driven disasters, and Mozambique in

particular is at risk in that regard. This means that many of Mozambique s remarkable human development achievements

over the past 20 years are at risk and may be halted by mid-century, if environmental and climate change driven threats are

not effectively dealt with. However, achieving progress in human development as well as in equity and environmental

stability are not mutually exclusive. Several countries have achieved significant progress both in human development and in

equity and environmental sustainability. The introduction of scalable models has shown the viability of transfer to a green

economy, such as the introduction by the Ministry of Energy in Kenya of a feed-in tariff in 2008 to supply and diversify

electricity generation sources, generate income and employment and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Similar examples of

efforts to address environmental issues while still promoting human development growth can be found in Brazil, Philippinesand several European countries.

Local, national and global solutions needed

Effectively promoting sustainability and equity is not a problem which a country can face individually. Addressing the

challenges which all countries face, and in particular low HDI countries, of promoting human development in a sustainable

and equitable manner require both innovative national policies and adopting best practices as well as engaging in

international cooperation. Conferences such as the Durban and Rio provide an important platform for Governments,

international agencies and Civil Society Organisations to agree on future steps and developing a common future.

Published byThe Economic and Policy Analysis Unit (EPAU)

UNDP Mozambique

Av. Kenneth Kaunda 931

Maputo, Mozambique

Briefs from EPAU are intended to be informal briefing notes on economic issues relevant for the work of the UNDP in

Mozambique. The views expressed are those of the author and may not be attributed to the UNDP.