Dissertation Research Proposal:Dissertation Research Proposal:

Susceptibility modeling & mission flight Susceptibility modeling & mission flight route optimization in a low threat, combat route optimization in a low threat, combat

environmentenvironment

Brett J. MachovinaUniversity of Denver

Department of Geography11 June 2008

Proposal OverviewProposal Overview

GoalsGoals BackgroundBackground MethodsMethods ConclusionConclusion

GoalsGoals

Develop a model to optimize flight routesDevelop a model to optimize flight routes• Hypothesis: Hypothesis: GIS-enabled routes increase mission GIS-enabled routes increase mission

effectiveness by significantly reducing effectiveness by significantly reducing susceptibilitysusceptibility

Test the model results in relation to:Test the model results in relation to:• ExperienceExperience• ExpertiseExpertise• FamiliarityFamiliarity• GenderGender• AgeAge• Terrain variabilityTerrain variability

BackgroundBackground

Survivability and susceptibility Survivability and susceptibility (Ball 2003)(Ball 2003)

• PS = 1 – PKPS = 1 – PK• PK = PH*PKPK = PH*PKHH• PH = PA*PDPH = PA*PDA*PLA*PLD*PID*PIL*PHL*PHII

Flight route optimization modelingFlight route optimization modeling• Operations research & stealthOperations research & stealth• Pekelsma 1988Pekelsma 1988

Geography & mission planning toolsGeography & mission planning tools• PFPS and FalconView PFPS and FalconView (Bailey 2008)(Bailey 2008)

Rotorcraft Noise ModelRotorcraft Noise Model Behavioral geographyBehavioral geography

• Visualization, orientation, relationsVisualization, orientation, relations (Golledge & Stimson 1997(Golledge & Stimson 1997))

BackgroundBackgroundPFPS and FalconViewPFPS and FalconView

BackgroundBackgroundRNMRNM

MethodsMethodsOverviewOverview

Survivability Research

Current Instrument Meteorological

(IMC) Data

Current Wind Data

Extensive and Current

Temperature Data

Optimized Mission PlanningAirframe

Limits

Instructions

GIS Noise Analysis

DetectabilityAnalysis

GIS EM Visibility Analysis

Elevation DataReal-time Threat Data

Real-time Weather Data

Threat (Road) Data Temperature Data

Susceptibility Research

MethodsMethodsStudy AreasStudy Areas

MethodsMethodsStudy AreasStudy Areas

MethodsMethodsModel: Temp., Altitude & Helicopter Performance Model: Temp., Altitude & Helicopter Performance

Power (torque) Available for UH-1N Helicopter

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Altitude, Ft PA

Temp, C

Temp 39 34 27 18 7 -6 -28

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Less than 100% Power

100% Power

DA = PA + (120 TV)DA = density altitudePA = pressure altitude120 = the change in DA for 1 degree Celsius deviation from standard temperatureTV = temperature variation from standard (15 degrees C at sea level) = Outside Air Temperature (OAT) – {15 - [(PA in ft/1000 ft)*2]}

(HATS 1999: 2-17)

MethodsMethodsModel: Airframe LimitsModel: Airframe Limits

MethodsMethodsModel: VisibilityModel: Visibility

MethodsMethodsModel: Combined Discrete CostModel: Combined Discrete Cost

MethodsMethodsModel: Corridor and RouteModel: Corridor and Route

MethodsMethodsValidationValidation

GIS-enabled route vs. human route (n=45)GIS-enabled route vs. human route (n=45)• Total distanceTotal distance• Turn point deviation from optimal routeTurn point deviation from optimal route• % points in optimal corridor% points in optimal corridor• % route in optimal corridor% route in optimal corridor• Difference in visibility footprintDifference in visibility footprint• Difference in audibility footprintDifference in audibility footprint

• Origin and destinationOrigin and destination SinuositySinuosity Directional mean, circular varianceDirectional mean, circular variance

ConclusionConclusion

TheoryTheory

GIS modeling methodsGIS modeling methods

Direct applicationDirect application

TimelineTimeline

Completed courseworkCompleted coursework• Fundamental Geog Perspectives, Geog Research Methods, Adv. Geog Fundamental Geog Perspectives, Geog Research Methods, Adv. Geog

Statistics, Urban Landscapes, Homeland Defense (GSIS), GIS Statistics, Urban Landscapes, Homeland Defense (GSIS), GIS Modeling, Research Identification*, Application Design & Production*Modeling, Research Identification*, Application Design & Production*

20082008• SummerSummer

June: IRB, AFSPCJune: IRB, AFSPC July 7-12: data collectionJuly 7-12: data collection Dissertation ResearchDissertation Research

• FallFall GIS Database Design, International Terrorism (GSIS)GIS Database Design, International Terrorism (GSIS)

20092009• WinterWinter

Spatial Modeling, Ind. Study, 3Spatial Modeling, Ind. Study, 3rdrd World Defense Policy (GSIS) World Defense Policy (GSIS)

* Current course (SP qtr 2008)

TimelineTimeline

20092009• SpringSpring

Geographic Information Analysis, GIS SeminarGeographic Information Analysis, GIS Seminar Comprehensive ExamComprehensive Exam

• SummerSummer Dissertation ResearchDissertation Research

• FallFall Dissertation Research, Special Topics in GISDissertation Research, Special Topics in GIS

20102010• WinterWinter

Dissertation ResearchDissertation Research

• SpringSpring Dissertation DefenseDissertation Defense

MethodsMethods

GIS RouteGIS Route

Human Route

Human Route

Back

MethodsMethodsTurn Point DeviationTurn Point Deviation

GIS Route

Human Route

Human Route

Deviation from closest GIS line segment

Back

MethodsMethods% of turn points in optimal corridor% of turn points in optimal corridor

GIS RouteGIS Route

Human Human

RouteRoute

Example: 60% of human-generated turn points fall within the optimal GIS corridor (dark green)

Back

MethodsMethods% of route in optimal corridor% of route in optimal corridor

Example: 64% of human route segments fall within the optimal GIS corridor (dark green)

GIS RouteGIS Route

Human Human

RouteRoute

Back

MethodsMethodsDDifference in visibility and audibility footprintsifference in visibility and audibility footprints

• Visibility is yes/no

• Audibility will require a threshold

Back

MethodsMethodsOrigin and DestinationOrigin and Destination

GIS RouteGIS Route

Human Human

RouteRoute

Back

135DM and CV?

225

DM and CV?